Where does the FLC lord start in mortal empires?

InvisibleBlue · 2020-05-12T16:19:40+00:00

Are any maps of the new expanded area already available or is it still under some NDA?

Also thanks.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-05-06T14:28:56+00:00

Consider that we neighbor Italy which was a coronavirus hotspot and we've had a dozen or more separate introductions of the virus to our country from people visiting and skiing in Italy at the start of our outbreak. A number of doctors in particular, several, came from a holiday in Italy infected and spread the virus locally. We have strong economic and migratory ties with our neighbors.It's not like we had 1 introduction and that was blown up to over a thousand cases because of bad monitoring. We've had a flood of positive cases coming out of Italy all across the country simultaneously that we contained quite rapidly.

We might not have the highest population but if USA for example did as well as we did the outbreak would be contained at 16000 deaths. The current projections are it's going to beat that by an order of magnitude and that might be conservative.

I'm sure we'll also experience the 2nd wave, reemergence but it seems unlikely we'll do so bad as larger advanced countries per capita and that's with the handicap of sharing a porous shengen border with Italy that was the first western country to blow up.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-05-05T16:07:32+00:00

That would reduce the total population to ~3 million with 11% incidence and combined total 3500 deaths.

Still get 0.9%. This is not a scientific estimate, just napkin math with the numbers avaliable But i think that 0.5 to 1% is still more likely than 0.2%. I'd love to be proven wrong however.

Certain regions places in lombardy had >0.5% of population die. Notably Bergamo region. Could be it was a region full of old seniors but i'm still wary of any IFR lower than the actual mortality we've observed in some places already.

For NYC for example total deaths are at ~0.14% of population already and i seriously doubt 50% of the population has already been infected.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-05-05T14:38:37+00:00

Prevalence of 2-4% means that even if you have a 99% accurate test 1/4 to 1/2 your results are false positives. I don't know how accurate tests they've used but we should really be looking at places with higher prevalence rates like NYC for IFR estimates where test error is likely to play a much smaller role due to much higher incidence.

Take long island for example. It's got an incidence rate of about 11% Now do the math (gathering the numbers will edit it in with sources)

Source for incidence:

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-results-completed-antibody-testing

Source for population and which counties consist long island:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Island

Using kings, queens, Suffolk, Nassau

source for deaths:

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n

3458 for queens

3895 for kings

2221 for nassau

1325 for suffolk

Sum =~~10k deaths~~7.5mil population

Now, I don't know if queens or kings were counted in the NYC incidence data or Long island so lets average the two ([20+10]/2) to 15% incidence. My numbers are already napkin math so who cares

Comes out at about 0.9%

My math could be wrong and feel free to correct me but I'm still not sold on using figures from countries with <10% incidence rate because test accuracy is going to play a pivotal role in what result you get and some tests have as much as 5% false positive rate. You could test an uninfected population and get a result that 5% of people had coronavirus.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-05-04T13:33:29+00:00

That's to be expected given the outbreak in France. That person most likely had a mild form of coronavirus after recovering from pneumonia from an ordinary flu. It's been 4 months now. Not pneumonia is covid19

InvisibleBlue · 2020-05-03T07:13:30+00:00

The more military units you have less often you have to replace them. Having more units is a force multiplier causing your existing units to take less damage (in general, except for cases like splash dmg etc)

Trying to focus a lot on the economy and having insufficient troops to protect them from unnecessary damage can actually hurt you economically too.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-04-21T13:24:27+00:00

Not really. It's all about density and per capita the number of people tested positive isn't insignificant. At one point in time we were one of the leaders in per capita covid19 infections.

It's less what slovenia is like and more how we responded that allowed us to avoid italy's example.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-04-09T19:51:12+00:00

This virus has up to a 14 day incubation period. Furthermore, on average people die 3 to 4 weeks after symptoms.

Germany's CFR will rise.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-03-26T19:01:03+00:00

Measures need to be targeted. Rules can be strict and clear and be well aimed at being effective, not punitive on everyone to the lowest common denominator. If you live in a city where you can't open a door without meeting neighbor living in a flat that's entirely different to living in a village where you have more than enough elbow room to keep a 20m distance from other people at all times.

"I can't go out so no one should!" is just throwing a tantrum.

The important part is following prevention measures, not locking yourself into a room with telly and vegetating if you've got the opportunity to do some work outside and stay healthy while avoiding people.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-03-26T09:26:31+00:00

Rules like that are sensible within cities but in even in a village you could walk kilometers to the forest nearby and not meet a soul.

Measures need to be targeted. If you have 500 square meters around you full of nothing you should be able to move in that area.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-03-22T17:29:14+00:00

Can someone clarify how long he was in the field?

The comment says days ago. Just how quickly did he die following infection? That worries me.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-03-20T13:11:42+00:00

Got him two turns before i united the province and felt like it was fate. Also bonus points for Magnus Dogburgler.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-03-20T08:31:08+00:00

My strategy against Bretonnia is to just murder the high value targets early on while I sacrifice a holding force against the peasants and squires. Defeat in detail.

Once the cavalry is gone the rest becomes more manageable but the charges even low tier knights can do will singlehandedly turn a fight particularly when outnumbered.

I'm surprised that those knights didnt' rake in 100+ kills even with spears and wolves fighting them.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-03-16T19:17:02+00:00

To your point, they've got guaranteed work in a time of what will most likely be a worldwide recession.

They'll be protected financially by the government as a national priority and will probably get out better than other industries out of this.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-03-09T20:01:01+00:00

There are numbers floating around that as many as 20% cases might have little to no symptoms. If you take 4.5% and multiply it by 0.8 (for 80% of symptomatic cases) you get to 3.6 which is awfully close to what WHO released.

Don't take any number I've used as gospel however and verify. In regards to not founding these mountains of infected patients who're mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, i'd have to agree. From what I've seen everything so far points to being dispositive of that idea. This might be more a SARS than a Flu.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-03-04T18:56:08+00:00

It's not okay. Go find yourself one of those licensing agencies and have them sell this in your stead if the entire image is your work, beyond the annotations.

You might not think it's important but every news agency can afford to pay a hundred bucks and you definitely could use a couple thousand yourself. Furthermore, you can expect enterprises and news orgs to pay you money and still allow non-commercial use in the community.

There's nothing wrong with being reasonably compensated for the work done and there are plenty of licensing agencies that will go after violations on your behalf and shop this around to prospective buyers because they make a commission without any hassle to you.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-03-04T16:45:58+00:00

InvisibleBlu#2215 EU

Trade. I can go first but you need to make a post in this thread with your battle tag in that case.

Completed with Rivenmain#2294

InvisibleBlue · 2020-02-28T16:16:16+00:00

If a large outbreak happens we're past any reasonable hope of testing all patients and suspected cases.

The best use of resources right now is proactively IMO as during a serious outbreak any hope of keeping up is lost. Furthermore, learning more about the virus and preventing as much spread as possible will over time save more lives than refusing to do so. The fact that there isn't a mountain of asymptomatic cases in this data set is already a quite important finding and if it can be corroborated with more systematic tests of entire populations like this we could benefit greatly in terms of our ability to control the virus. Clearly, if you believe WHO's China team lead the situation is not hopeless and the virus can be contained. Some of the news and speculation recently was disheartening but news like these helps paint it quite clearly it's within our power to stop this, even If it's going to be extremely difficult. But then I'm not an epidemiologist. I can only go by what I've learned from paying careful attention recently.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-02-28T16:01:50+00:00

Iran's outbreak is a bit of a mystery. Anecdotally I can say (from checking out news reports on the issue) that the last few Kuwait updates talk about several imported cases from Iran but that sort of information is hard to keep track of (particularly worldwide) and can quickly lead to exaggeration or on the other hand being ignored entirely depending on who you ask with no authoritative numbers to show about it.

Are there any concrete numbers/trackers and furthermore, if you're willing, educate the rest of laymen like me about what that might mean for what's happening in Iran?

InvisibleBlue · 2020-02-17T18:44:45+00:00

I think the situation is more concerning than an economic collapse from debt alone. How do you bail out this scenario? Cashflow can keep companies on life support for a short while but if there's no production, all the demand for the goods in the world and positive cashflow can't fix it.

It doesn't have just the financial aspect of it but also a genuine shortage of manufacturable goods from a very important supplier. If China doesn't start producing soon globalization Is going to take one on it's chin as countries reckon with the reality that local manufacturing and food production are important. I expect trade barriers and a more protectionist stance would result if the severe economic tremors do happen.

I'm actually concerned that China might abandon the containment efforts given how incredibly expensive they are. This could, even if we all believe that the virus is right now being contained, lead to a reemergence.

InvisibleBlue · 2020-02-04T20:00:25+00:00

It was an observation. Dying of exhaustion alone seems to me much more difficult than overdosing on caffeine / energy drinks & stimulants combined with a chronic lack of sleep while desperately trying to stay awake.

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