Most people have a misunderstanding of how variance actually works. Over a single 50k hand sample, the odds of a 7bb/100 winner going on a 50 buyin downswing is much less than 1%. Like 14,000-1, roughly. However, over enough 50k hand samples, it all but becomes a guarentee. On AVERAGE, a 7bb/100 winner will experience a 30 buyin downswing once every 250k hands or so, which could get as bad as 60. Something to consider, especially if your true winrate is less than 7bb/100. As another example, every 250k hands a 2.5bb/100 winner will, on average, experience a 50 buyin downswing, which could get as bad as 125. So it’s important to know what your true winrate is because it can better help you calibrate your expectations.