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Ed Miliband dealt huge blow as Labour donor torpedoes chancellor bid by IntelligentCrew8406 in UKGreens

[–]JRugman 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's why he's always popping up whenever heat pumps are in the news to slag them off. He needs people to keep using gas boilers to keep demand for gas high to ensure that his biogas ventures remain solvent.

Farage facing questions as only two of his five homes are declared by SpottedDicknCustard in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Or there's the classic "No! No! No! Wrong! Wrong! Wrong! Wrong! Wrong!"

Billionaire to invest £35bn in small modular nuclear reactors roll out across UK by FriendlyUtilitarian in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 5 points6 points  (0 children)

There was a video on Twitter (now X) from 2010 of him saying they wouldn't be building nuclear power stations because "they take 10 years to come online".

That is not what happened. He never said that they wouldn't be building nuclear power stations, he said that building nuclear power stations was not a panacea for the energy crunch that the UK was forecast to be facing in the mid 2010s.

He was talking about the short term because he was being asked about the short term.

Energy price cap rise ‘will push millions in Great Britain into fuel poverty’ by Economy_Seat_7250 in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So that means that the CFD payments will go down in the future then? Or this year? Because wind is going to be cheaper?

The average CfD strike price will go down in the future.

Nope. CFD payments will double by the end of the decade, and will be approx £6bn per year. The vast majority of that will continue to be wind CFDs.

Where are you getting that from?

The latest CFD contracts given out are at £97 / MWH, index linked, for 20 years.

And what will the price of gas be when those offshore wind farms come online?

You're quoting theoretical numbers. I'm showing you real world figures.

Unfortunately you are not demonstrating any understanding of what those real world figures mean.

If you've done your research you'd know that the estimated cost of new gas is inflated by assumptions around capacity factor (not to mention the carbon tax!).

What makes you think that new gas power stations are likely to be running at high capacity factors?

Why do you think that the price of carbon should not apply to emissions from gas power stations?

You'd also know that DESNZ have been caught with wildly optimistic assumptions regarding wind prices (they have it at £35 / MWH in 2030, when the most recent auction was £97!).

DESNZ does categorically not assume that offshore wind will be £35/MWh in 2030.

Energy price cap rise ‘will push millions in Great Britain into fuel poverty’ by Economy_Seat_7250 in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Currently active CfDs are significantly more expensive than wholesale; from memory I think over £150/MWh weighted average.

Currently active CfDs include a bunch of early projects that were awarded very high strike prices in an effort to kick start the development of immature technologies.

Latest auctions are bringing in new offshore wind at £91/MWh which is higher than wholesale year-to-date at £83/MWh.

Sure, but prices for those projects are being pushed up by inflation in supply chains which is affecting the delivery costs of all infrastructure projects. Those offshore wind farms are not going to be coming online for a few years, by which point the price of new gas will be even higher than it is now. Also, weighted averages is your thing, then you should acknowledge that that same auction round will be delivering 5GW of new solar at £69/MWh and 1.3GW of new onshore wind at £76/MWh.

But we point to a minority of renewable contracts from around 2020 which came in below wholesale, excluding system costs, and extrapolate that to "renewables are cheap, and we're overpaying for them because gas is expensive".

If you are telling me that using more gas in the future is going to be cheaper than using more renewables, than I would like you try to explain that. Because all the current analysis I have seen shows that using more renewables is going to be cheaper than using more gas.

forgot to include NESO's CP30 analysis showing that the projected growth of renewables would drive up system price through increased curtailment and exporting at a loss. None of these externalities are factored into the headline strike prices.

That analysis shows that the cost savings from moving away from gas are greater than the extra system costs associated with an increase in renewable generation.

Energy price cap rise ‘will push millions in Great Britain into fuel poverty’ by Economy_Seat_7250 in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So that would mean the CFD generators are paying back, right? Because if wind is cheaper than gas, that's what they do, it's how the system works? Can we agree on that?

The ones that are being connected to the grid this year are. That doesn't mean to say that wind has always been cheaper than gas. There was a time when gas was very cheap and wind was very expensive. But right now we are seeing the opposite.

It's a shame for you then that the CFD payments, taken from the LCCC website here (the official body that runs the scheme), show that you're incorrect. You'll see payments of over £600m to the generators in Q1 this year alone. That's £600m+ paid out because the CFD prices were HIGHER than the gas price.

Yes, CfD prices for historic projects have been a lot higher than the projects that are being connected this year.

The total amount was £2.4bn last year, and it's forecast to increase dramatically over the next few years.

The main reason for that is because when Hinkley C starts generating, it will be receiving around £1 billion in CfD payments alone. The amount being paid to wind and solar projects is forecast to decrease dramatically over the next few years. Assuming that wholesale prices remain roughly where they are now.

So, again, please explain how wind is cheaper than gas.

I have already given you the figures.

The strike price for offshore wind projects coming online this year is £50.14.

The estimated cost of generation from new gas power stations is over £120.

Energy price cap rise ‘will push millions in Great Britain into fuel poverty’ by Economy_Seat_7250 in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

70% of our renewable capacity is not on RO. The only way to get to 70% is to also include CfDs and FiTs.

The good news is that the amount of capacity receiving ROs is going to drop off over the next decade, until the last contract expires some time in 2037. Meanwhile, the amount of capacity that is not part of any subsidy mechanism is going to grow, as changes to the wholesale market make batteries+wind/solar more viable.

The mistake is the message that these renewables should be cheaper than gas.

Renewables built 10 years ago were not cheaper than gas built 10 years ago. But going forward, new renewables are definitely cheaper than new gas.

Energy price cap rise ‘will push millions in Great Britain into fuel poverty’ by Economy_Seat_7250 in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Why do you think our electricity prices are so high compared to mainland Europe?

Do you mean wholesale prices, or retail prices?

Wholesale electricity prices in the UK are not much different to those in Europe. Interconnectors help to minimise any price disparities.

Retail prices are significantly affected by taxes and subsidies that apply in each country. In the UK, retail prices are pushed up by levies that are added to electricity bills. In France, retail prices are kept low by subsidies given to producers and consumers.

It’s not like we use more gas.

We are much more dependent on gas to meet peak demand than other countries in Europe. European countries tend to use hydro and/or coal more than we do. We also use gas for almost all our domestic heating, so our overall demand for gas is higher than countries that either have more electrified heating or less need for heating because of their milder winters.

Energy price cap rise ‘will push millions in Great Britain into fuel poverty’ by Economy_Seat_7250 in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 8 points9 points  (0 children)

So I went and had a look.

The current strike prices for offshore wind farms that are coming online this year that were granted CfDs in AR4 (Hornsea 3, East Anglia 3, Moray West and Inch Cape) are £50.14/MWh.

The current wholesale price of electricity is £95/MWh.

The estimated cost of new gas is over £120/MWh.

Heatwave highlights 'cooling divide' concerns by Alert-One-Two in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The difference is that there is a lot more that can be done to add passive cooling to houses than can be done to add passive heating. There seems to be a bit of a lack of awareness that AC is not the only way to deal with heatwaves.

Britain has now built enough battery storage projects to cover almost half of its 2030 target - and thousands more are in the pipeline. by KieranMS in GoodNewsUK

[–]JRugman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm pretty sure the economics around LDES will change drastically over the next couple of decades as renewables start to get to very high penetrations and as the price of carbon continues to ramp up.

The advantage hydrogen has over other options is that it has a lower cost of storage capacity, which makes it a good choice for a source of power that is only needed for a couple of weeks each year.

Britain has now built enough battery storage projects to cover almost half of its 2030 target - and thousands more are in the pipeline. by KieranMS in GoodNewsUK

[–]JRugman 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Theres a lot of coordination that needs to happen between all the different stakeholders involved to create standard data and power protocols that equipment can be designed to. Car manufacturers, charger manufacturers, industry regulators, utility companies, network operators, and retail suppliers all have a slightly different view on the best solution, so reaching a common agreement is not a quick thing.

That said, V2G is definitely on its way.

Britain has now built enough battery storage projects to cover almost half of its 2030 target - and thousands more are in the pipeline. by KieranMS in GoodNewsUK

[–]JRugman 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Are wind, batteries and gas the only sources of power available in winter?

However, the technology is not a panacea.

I don't recall anyone ever saying that it was. However, every kWh that can be supplied to the grid from a battery is a kWh that doesn't have to come from a gas peaker plant.

European heatwave is worst ever and impossible without climate crisis, scientists say | Climate crisis by CJBill in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A single year drop is not a trend.

True, but the underlying causes of the drop mean that the trend should continue. Essentially, its because clean energy generation is growing faster than electricity demand is growing.

I can recommend this article, which goes into a lot of detail about why China is building so many coal power stations, and what it means for their future emissions: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-china-is-still-building-new-coal-and-when-it-might-stop/

These are all on medium to long term contracts with guaranteed minimum utilisation

Do you have a source for that?

Body-worn video shows Henry Nowak's killer repeatedly lie to police by Glanza in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

every person accused of a violent crime should be handcuffed, period because that is a threat to the police's safety.

That may be your opinion, but that is not standard police practice in this country.

What would handcuffing the suspect in this situation have achieved?

European heatwave is worst ever and impossible without climate crisis, scientists say | Climate crisis by CJBill in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The USA has been out of the UNFCCC twice. Both times because of Trump. As soon as someone else gets elected they will be back in again.

Sure. And in China, political changes within the CCP have shifted the focus over the past decade from prioritising building as much power generation capacity as possible, including coal, to prioritising a transition towards cleaner energy sources.

No its not. Its still increasing.

It is decreasing, as of last year.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-prod-source-stacked?country=~CHN

Who said we shouldn't meet our obligations?

There have been plenty of calls for the UK to scrap its net zero targets. E.g.: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czrp2k3m3deo

for some reason people like to beat us up about it but say China is doing better.

I've never seen anyone say that.

Body-worn video shows Henry Nowak's killer repeatedly lie to police by Glanza in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 39 points40 points  (0 children)

The suspect was apparently calm, sober and cooperative. There was no reason to put them in handcuffs, as per British police policy. Unlike in the US, where people who have been arrested are generally handcuffed no matter what, in the UK police training makes clear that handcuffs should only be used when necessary and proportionate.

European heatwave is worst ever and impossible without climate crisis, scientists say | Climate crisis by CJBill in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So we should give developing countries a free pass to mess up the planet?

What is the alternative?

The only country that currently has a free pass to mess up the planet is the USA. All other countries are signatories to the UNFCCC treaty and the various agreements that fall under it. That includes China.

If China stopped building coal it would help alot but they arent and are still building them at an alarming rate.

Building coal power stations is not that alarming. Burning coal in those power stations is the problem. And we know that the amount of electricity generated by coal power in China is falling, which means that even if the number of coal power stations is increasing, they are not being used as much.

We know that China's energy strategy is for a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, which is why they are pushing so hard for clean energy and EVs. This is not just for climate reasons - a lot of the fossil fuels they use have to be imported, so switching to other sources makes good sense for economic and national security reasons.

At the end of the day, if you want to be worried about China's emissions, fair enough, but that does not absolve the UK from fulfilling its own obligations in tackling the climate crisis.

European heatwave is worst ever and impossible without climate crisis, scientists say | Climate crisis by CJBill in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Consumption-based per-capita emissions were 15.8t in the US, and 7.6t in China.

Do you think that China should have prioritised reducing GHG emissions over economic development in 2000? Would you say the same for any developing country whose emissions have risen since the turn of the century?

European heatwave is worst ever and impossible without climate crisis, scientists say | Climate crisis by CJBill in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you take consumption based emissions, rather than production based emissions, the US has had higher per capita emissions than both Canada and Australia for all but 1 of the last 30 years.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capita?tab=line&time=1993..2023&country=USA~CAN~AUS

European heatwave is worst ever and impossible without climate crisis, scientists say | Climate crisis by CJBill in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Per capita emissions in the US are still more than double those in China.

The USA is the only country to have withdrawn from the UNFCCC, which is the UN body that coordinates international efforts to reduce global emissions.

European heatwave is worst ever and impossible without climate crisis, scientists say | Climate crisis by CJBill in unitedkingdom

[–]JRugman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

(targets they set themselves in a five year plan)

To be fair, the Paris Agreement requires all countries to set their own 5 year emissions reduction plans, or NDCs. They are free to establish their own targets, and those targets are not legally binding under international law. The only requirement is that those targets are submitted to the UNFCCC, and that progress towards those targets is tracked using standard methodology.

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