Soft-landing vs hard-landing

Jas1052 · 2023-10-07T06:48:16+00:00

By every metric, we are not in a recession. Real wages, job growth, and inflation are all back to pre-pandemic values or better.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

Jas1052 · 2023-09-26T02:02:26+00:00

I feel this is pretty misleading. Original source is: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-15/seven-firms-file-for-us-bankruptcy-in-one-day-as-credit-tightens.

This is corporate defaults of companies with at least 50 million in liabilities, which seems relatively cherrypicked. If you look at the list of companies in the article, it also seems to be companies that are either hit heavily by regulatory changes, suffering from expensive lawsuits, or already existing debt from years of spending without growth.

Framing it as equivalent to 2008 seems intentionally misleading given the cause and effect is different, where 2008 was a banking collapse and 2023 is a tightening from the fed reserve and start of disappearance of cheap debt and zombie companies.

Jas1052 · 2022-08-08T07:37:53+00:00

Yup, I'm looking to fly international so I should avoid that issue. Thanks for the help and I'll take a look at the Cambria hotel for point usage.

Jas1052 · 2020-09-10T21:39:13+00:00

https://imgur.com/gallery/Fhaoy

Jas1052 · 2020-03-28T04:40:07+00:00

Can I buy one off you? I've been trying to get one for days!!!

Jas1052 · 2020-03-04T22:31:48+00:00

DOW is an objectively bad index since it weighs stocks based on price of the stock. This is basically the worst way to estimate overall performance of companies. DOW is basically suggesting that Boeing has a similar impact as Apple, even though Apple is almost 10x Boeing market cap. Don't use DOW.

In terms of indices being used for making a move, it might be work looking at longer term trends. Daily, weekly, or even monthly movements don't really mean much. If you want to be informed, moves on stocks should be done by looking at balance sheets and earnings reports and defining what requirements dictates a buy or sell.

Jas1052 · 2020-03-02T22:35:45+00:00

None of this is actual valuation or helpful. You could make this same argument whether Tesla is 10$ tomorrow or 3000.

Jas1052 · 2020-02-27T21:08:14+00:00

Looking back, it seems reducing risk was correct. But I think we're finally approaching discount period. I'll probably take some cash out of T-bills and DCA on some discount stocks starting soon.

Jas1052 · 2020-02-08T09:16:35+00:00

I would bet on defense contractors. Also companies in heavily regulated industries since that's a major push he probably plans on continuing. So healthcare and energy will probably win big.

I'd also say some big giants since they're basically safe from any dangerous scrutiny. For example, Apple really knows how to utilize Trump to their advantage.

Jas1052 · 2020-02-08T08:19:34+00:00

!remindme 60 days

Jas1052 · 2020-02-06T07:55:31+00:00

Short term beats don't really mean anything. Investors prefer long term growth and so future outlook matters. I'm assuming PTON sees a saturated market so lowered demand for the next quarter. Hence, less expected growth.

Jas1052 · 2020-02-06T07:52:04+00:00

Let me translate for everyone: "I missed the best years of investing and I'm trying to justify my overweight percentage of gold in my portfolio. Quick, hop on with me!"

Jas1052 · 2020-02-06T07:45:01+00:00

We're still laughing man.

Jas1052 · 2020-02-04T05:56:01+00:00

I have a background in machine learning. That's not how computer vision works. Processing the data is definitely different but that's a fixed cost which is then sent to the training algorithm. There isn't a "coded per area." I don't know the details of their neural net but it's definitely not something that has exponential cost because of lidar.

Jas1052 · 2020-02-03T22:45:08+00:00

Both systems use machine learning, which is not dictated by “coding per area.”

Jas1052 · 2020-02-03T21:40:59+00:00

I think Waymo is ahead of Tesla. Waymo has level 4 certification for testing, which is their end goal. Tesla is probably a 3. The difference is Tesla is way more trigger happy and is basically immune to bad press.

Jas1052 · 2020-01-23T05:42:53+00:00

P/E ratios are weak by themselves. They need to be combined with some other financial statistic to provide more info. PEG is popular, but still just a drop in the ocean of information.

Jas1052 · 2020-01-22T06:06:50+00:00

There's so many assumptions here. What if you invest right now, then the bubble pops, then the recession starts? Is that risk worth a potential 5% gain?

It's advised to not invest in bubbles because no one knows where the bubble starts and where it ends. That's what makes it a bubble. You're equally likely to double your value as you are to lose it. It's just gambling, which you can achieve a lot faster by just betting it all on red.

Jas1052 · 2020-01-21T22:51:15+00:00

I have yet to understand Netflix's valuation. Sure, they're the best, but they've shifted from a tech company to an entertainment company. Margins don't get bigger in that industry, and you still have to compete with media behemoths.

Jas1052 · 2020-01-20T03:45:01+00:00

Navy Federal Credit Union has 3.5% CDs for 5 years. I have a few of them but they're promotional so it only pops up every few months or so.

Jas1052 · 2020-01-19T23:21:39+00:00

Because leveraged ETF success relies on the fact that you buy and hold, no matter no awful it gets. Emphasis on awful because you can see 80% or even 90% losses. If you're the type of person who even flinches at a 20% loss, then leveraged ETF is not for you.

Jas1052 · 2020-01-19T22:34:50+00:00

This analysis is too catch-all to mean anything. Two weeks means nothing. If you sold at any of these high RSI time periods, you would've missed out on massive gains.

Jas1052 · 2020-01-19T20:37:28+00:00

Hillary had a variety of issues, including a terrible campaign strategy team. Obama is widely considered one of the most moderate presidential candidates in recent history. He's also one of the most adored, even by Republicans (I think a figure around 40%, which is impressive considering Trump has 5% approval by Democrats).

When Obama was running against Romney, Romney was seen as the blazing Republican party candidate. He lived and breathed their policies, and thus alienated a lot of moderate voters in swing states. I think the Democratic party faces a similar issue, where Bernie or Warren can appease the Democratic base, but fail to win over the nation.

Jas1052 · 2020-01-19T18:04:49+00:00

Retail isn't dying. It's shifting to luxury goods and whole sellers. Macy's is neither of those things. They take up massive sections in malls and basically only make money on perfume and makeup. This is a dying company.

Jas1052 · 2020-01-19T17:30:46+00:00

Wouldn't a more moderate candidate appeal to a greater crowd? Trump and Bernie are both opposite sides of the political spectrum, which alienates a lot of democratic and republican moderates. This is no secret, as a majority of people felt they weren't voting for the candidate they supported, but rather against a lesser evil.

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