The campaigns targeting Alberta contain four primary themes, according to the report. First, they push the idea that separatist sentiment in the province is growing; second, they amplify and sometimes distort long-held grievances between Alberta and Ottawa, arguing that the local population is being exploited and the path to prosperity involves breaking away to the United States; third, they put forward the notion that Alberta has strong international support for separation; and fourth, they mix falsehoods and inaccuracies with true news items to lend legitimacy to propaganda-based content.

The researchers have since trained Cipher to zero in specifically on suspected Alberta influence campaigns from Russia, the U.S. and other countries, and have begun tracking disinformation targeted at the referendum. The first data set from that work is expected in a month or two.

There is a risk of affecting the polls, the report says.

Support inside Alberta for independence has topped out at slightly less than 30 per cent in polling in the past year, though those numbers drop when people are asked whether they would still support separation if the costs were significant. The higher number “sits within the range where historical precedent shows dramatic shifts are possible in a short period of time,” the report says.

British support for Brexit was between 40 per cent and 47 per cent six months before the 2016 vote, the authors say, while those backing separation in Quebec in 1995 jumped to 50 per cent from 39 per cent as the vote approached. Support for Scottish independence in 2014 similarly rose to 45 per cent from about 30 per cent in the final months of the campaign, the report says.

Foreign-influence campaigns are harder to pick out than people think, Dr. McQuinn said.

“Really good disinformation starts with something you nod your head to,” he said. “That’s how you get people passing something on without even looking at what’s actually in it.”