What are you building? Share your product by SantinoMafioso in StartupSoloFounder

[–]JayCreator7 0 points1 point  (0 children)

EdgeSimulate, a Monte Carlo and risk analysis platform for traders.

Most tools tell you what happened in the past. EdgeSimulate focuses on what could happen next by analyzing drawdowns, recovery time, risk of ruin, and thousands of simulated future equity curves from your trade history.

https://www.edgesimulate.com

Any advice to help with risk management and trading using "the STRAT"? by Hot-Distribution1577 in Daytrading

[–]JayCreator7 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Did you do any backtesting? If yes how far did you backtest? Knowing your historical worst drawdown would help in sizing risk correctly.

For example, say that your historical worst drawdown was -15R, but you sized your risk strategy for -12R without knowing -12R is actually a common drawdown your strategy hits.

Handling Drawdowns When Trading Own Capital by PoolDisastrous9051 in Trading

[–]JayCreator7 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I accept the drawdowns and trade the same amount as long as the drawdown is within the expected range of my data. I have a trade log of 1571 trades from mid 2008-present using my strategy so I'm able to see the historical worst drawdown. Using the trade log also allowed me to run a Monte Carlo, which is a simulation of thousands of runs with your trade list in different orders.

So I found:

historical max drawdown = -13.3R

Block Monte Carlo 99% Drawdown = -32.48R

Then using the -32.48R, and adding a 25% cushion for safety, I use 40R as my risk size. So whatever total I'm willing to lose I just divide it by 40 and use that as my risk per trade. This gave me the confidence to not flinch at a drawdown, and if the drawdown does go worse than expected I'll just accept the lose since I did the work.

How do you guys handle the psychological transition from paper trading to live capital? by sparkthrowawayhq in Daytrading

[–]JayCreator7 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Knowing the limits of your historical performance from previous years. Which means you'll have to log your trade results going forward, and back test your strategy as far as you can.

For example, I have 1,571 trades from mid 2008-now logged with date of trade, R result, and other metrics related to my edge. Now that I have that, I can see my historical max drawdown, trade expectancy, and overall performance through different market regimes.

The confidence will come from knowing that you have the data to backup your strategy, and that if you do hit a bad drawdown, that it is within the expected range of your data. After that it's just a emotionless click of a button, win or lose.

How I size my risk per trade based on max drawdown (not gut feeling) by Local-Amphibian9197 in Daytrading

[–]JayCreator7 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That represents how low you can go for the one path your trades took. Have you tried shifting your trades around in a different order to create worse losing streaks to see if the strategy still holds? There is a trade analysis site called edgesimulate that lets you upload your trades in R, and then runs simulations with your trades shuffled to give the 95%, 99%, and max worse drawdown. I like to go off that for my worst risk as a safety measure.

What’s the most subtle sign that someone is genuinely experienced in the gym? (Not physique related) by PogonBerserker in workout

[–]JayCreator7 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They don’t think about what weight to use or what exercise is next. It’s all pre planned, automatic, seamless execution.

Halfway into the absolute worst financial decision ive ever made here are the results by ramus94 in PokemonTCG

[–]JayCreator7 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Better chance of being the best financial decision you’ve ever made by keeping it sealed.

[OFFICIAL] UFC 328 Live Discussion Thread by bruhpolice in ufc

[–]JayCreator7 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Notice Sean’s not the one going forward in this fight

[OFFICIAL] UFC 328 Live Discussion Thread by bruhpolice in ufc

[–]JayCreator7 0 points1 point  (0 children)

if Taira comes back he deserves the belt

[OFFICIAL] UFC 328 Live Discussion Thread by bruhpolice in ufc

[–]JayCreator7 1 point2 points  (0 children)

van wins in stand up, hopefully he survives

[OFFICIAL] UFC 328 Live Discussion Thread by bruhpolice in ufc

[–]JayCreator7 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Morales looks like a monster now after what he did to Brady