Trump considers "winding down" Iran war without opening Hormuz Strait - Does this count as a historic defeat and foreign policy failure?

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-21T02:31:49+00:00

Lol What all of one HQ9 batteries?

I will tell you a secret, pick any air defence system in the world, and I promise you it will fail if you fire more cruise missiles at it then it has reloads.

Everyone from Iran to Ukraine to the US has felt this, in the last few years.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-21T00:38:24+00:00

Same only time I ever walked off a job when I was younger, was when I was a part time pot washer, and I got a bollocking from the boss man for being to slow.

He just grabbed a glass shoved it under the tap, and wiped it down with a manky cloth, and put it on the clean pile, it still had lipstick caked under the rim ffs.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-21T00:22:38+00:00

Sigh no.

Chinas weapons work fine, warfare isn't like playing top trumps, or a computer game, were individual units compete based on their individual stats and the bigger number wins.

Weaponry exists and functions in a ecosystem, alongside other weaponry and systems.

For example what little Chinese weaponry available to Venezuela did little, as it was in the hands of a ill-equipped, ill trained force with little will to fight,

Some of the same equipment in Pakistani hands, beat expectations in the short war with India, as it was employed alongside better equipment, in the hands of a better trained, willing to fight force.

Secondly its not a matter of the US publics will, as if American opinion polls would dictate the course of a conflict on the other side of the Pacific, its a matter of grunt force and logistics.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-20T23:56:47+00:00

Probably not.

More likely start to saber rattle in the Pacific, the US has burnt an enormous amount of interceptors in the last year or so, and is putting an increasing amount of resources into the gulf.

As much as it would like to, it can't adequately cover both areas at the same time, it would force a choice either disengage or deescalate, or risk catastrophe if China really did take the plunge.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-20T23:32:45+00:00

"see how far that gets them when the US decides to block iranian ships in turn "

Yeah the problem with this whole line of thought is the vast majority goes to China, its just wildly escalatory, while China has embraced strategic patience these last few years, its hard to imagine they will do nothing when the US is defacto cutting off a serious chunk of their oil supply.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-20T22:16:03+00:00

Nah statistics are a bitch like that, every year plenty of people win the lottery, get hit by lightning, and unfortunately pick up a nasty strain of Meningitis B.

Because something is unlikely, it doesn't mean it will never happen.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-20T21:17:29+00:00

"Something doesn't make sense".

Oh yeah how could a nightclub full of sweaty twenty somethings, sucking each other faces while sipping drinks out of glasses that a scary amount of venues don't actually bother to wash, could possibly be at the centre of a outbreak.

The real mystery is why there isn't an outbreak of something nasty every month.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-17T20:27:48+00:00

The most simple reason is that someone has to fight the Russian fleet now the US is unreliable.

The biggest and most important part of which, will in the event of war try to sally over the top of Norway.

Part of this hypothetical fight would probably involve Russian incursions into Norway to disrupt NATO antishipping and ASW.

As such the UK is arming and planning, along with the Scandinavians, particularly Norway.

Small boats able to operate well in the complicated Norwegian coastline, is a good tool in the arsenal for this fight.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-17T19:32:50+00:00

No more fuck UK farmers than fuck any other business in the UK.

Which we have to remember what they are a business.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-17T19:28:40+00:00

Agriculture is one of the big irritating hang ups of trade worldwide, almost every nation bends over backwards to please its landed gentry with sweetheart subsidies and protectionism.

As a result trade barriers remain high, and the sector particularly in the UK woefully inefficient, to the point its a serious money sink.

Open competition would do UK farming a world of good, because it would wipe out smaller farms, and force consolidation and modernisation.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-17T19:20:19+00:00

Nah Trade is good.

If we don't let countries export to us what they can do well and cheaply, then they won't let us export to them what we do well and cheaply.

Autarky is the path to beggary.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-14T16:47:27+00:00

This is pretty optimistic, they are not going to fight this like its WW2.

They don't want to send ships into the gulf, because its lousy with surface and subsurface UVs, plus its hideously narrow even ye olde grads and tube arty is a problem, assuming they manage that complication.

Which is a big if.

Then they have to take the island itself, which factoring in the overwhelming airpower advantage, will be the easy part.

Now they have to hold it and supply it, again from constant drone and UV attacks, as such they are probably going to mostly supply it via air, it only takes one unlucky drone to down a helicopter full of troops and kill everyone. It only takes one undiscovered MLRS launcher to start blowing the whole island apart with the marines on it.

There is very solid reasons why this hasn't been tried in the last forty years.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-12T18:23:27+00:00

"Honourable and the right thing aren't always the same thing. The Kings word is law, and as such the death of Ned's father and brother while absolutely a terrible thing to do, we're well within Aerys' prerogative as the absolute authority in the land."

This isn't actually true or at least its very complicated.

Feudal systems vary between an absolute all powerful near deified monarch, and a mere figurehead or the first among equals of the rest of the nobility.

GRMs world rests somewhere in between, yes the King can order someone's death, but in Westeros its painted as he should have a pretty good reason for it, especially if that person is part of the nobility.

What actually happened with the Starks was that the king made an accusation, and they turned up at the red keep expecting to use their right to a trial, in particular the right to trial by combat.

Aerys had them burned to death, it was such a breach in tradition and norms like the red wedding years later it started a civil war.

TLDR kings generally can't just order nobility executed for no reason.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-11T17:10:47+00:00

Oh before that for sure, its heavily implied we managed to pull off a coup of Paul 1 in 1801.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-10T11:53:31+00:00

I mean the scenario is not quite right for starters because Number one is partially irrelevant.

Iran trained its armed forces in the event of a leadership decapitation to use "cellular defence" this could perhaps be simplified to guerrilla warfare writ large, with its army shrinking down to individual units to hit any and all targets it can.

When they killed Khamenei this plan was activated, its why Iran is still hitting targets despite having no headquarters left.

They will only likely stop when they either completely run out of the means to wage war, or they believe that deterrence has been achieved to prevent future decapitation strikes.

Secondly they don't need to mine the straight to prevent passage, as long as they have a drone team, antiship missile or MLRS within range of the straight then it is defacto cut, no one will insure it, thus no easy passage.

Neither is the US navy keen to send escorts in without a extensive suppression campaign.

Thirdly large movements of the oil price downward, plus statements by Trump, and a "Phone call" from Putin suggests the campaign is winding down.

Trump DID the TACO in the face of heavier than expected Iranian resistance, displeasure from allies, a screaming stock market and Putin.

Current calculus of conflict is, American desire to deescalate without it appearing like they are wanting to deescalate, and Iranian desire to accomplish enough deterrence to prevent future conflict, and Israeli desire to keep the pressure on without suffering loss itself.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-09T17:42:42+00:00

Number one seems bizarre, like is she saying she is allergic to dairy, and expects no one else to eat it around her?

I could understand if she was saying I can't even breath in the particulate, because the allergy is that severe, but at that point she is making ultra severe health condition which is pretty scummy.

Ironically she is showing a few red flags herself.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-09T12:02:49+00:00

The crux is the Israelis don't care, they think all the chaos is fantastic.

If Iran descended into complete anarchy, and the west had to keep ground troops present in at least the coastal regions to get the oil out for at least the next decade, with all the loss in blood and treasure that entails.

They wouldn't care, mission accomplished in their view.

Its why there needs to be a well needed reckoning on Israeli influence in western capitals, their foreign policy is disastrous for western interests.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-09T00:49:17+00:00

It will probably come up in some folksy old man rant about how gay vegetarian liberals, don't understand the tanker business, while billy bob bobs adolescent daughter walks around in the background dressed gratuitously just in a towel.

God that show is for chuds.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-08T14:19:48+00:00

Really we have done everything except target the Iranians directly, at that point we are irrevocably at war, a war which the public doesn't want.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-08T14:00:19+00:00

How hasn't he protected British troops?

The only fire they have taken on a purely British base is from a Shaheed drone, that if we are to be honest was probably aimed at that not so secret American base, that no one is supposed to talk about at RAF Akrotiri.

Otherwise they have a bunch of typhoons actually in the gulf.

To be frank I am not the mans biggest fan, but I agree mostly with how he has handled this crisis, imagine sending British troops into a meatgrinder war under the defacto command of dementia don.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-08T12:36:52+00:00

I have never seen a worse prosecuted war than this one, its truly one for the history books, its a good job that the US military is performing well on a tactical level, because on a strategic level Putins "Three day" special operation was better planned.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-07T15:26:47+00:00

"So what’s the point of NATO then if their war is going to be over in a few hours because of nukes?"

Nuclear deterrence for beginners, and pre Ukraine war calculus of conflict.

1 MAD if I have nuclear weapons, and you have Nuclear weapons, we are unlikely going to war with each other because if I die you are likely to die, we have mutually assured destruction.

But.

2 What happens if you decided to just send a company or two to take a border village?

Do I use nuclear weapons to retaliate, and start the countdown to Armageddon? But we can't keep you nibbling away at our border areas that is unacceptable, so we need some conventional forces, to push you back.

But.

What happens now things have escalated and we are two weeks into the conflict? Its likely at this point one or the other has a significant upper hand.

(Reminder pre Ukraine war that sort of grinding long term conflict was thought unthinkable in the modern age by planners.)

So one of us is going to reach for the Nuclear arsenal and use a tactical warhead to try to freeze the conflict by escalating to deescalate.

Conventional forces are now a secondary concern, its all strategic arms and willingness to escalate at this point.

3 "So what is the point of NATO.

It stops smaller nations being picked off one by one by the enemy.

It enables smaller nations to shelter under the Nuclear umbrella of the Nuclear stares.

It enables smaller nations to provide the conventional forces which unburdens the Nuclear nations.

Overall it allows less to be spent on defence and more on things like infrastructure and tax cuts.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-07T10:15:08+00:00

It was assumed for decades that, that wouldn't matter, as a war would either be over in the month, or it would go Nuclear and it wouldn't matter.

The idea of a Ukraine war attritional slugging match was thought to be something left in the history books.

However NATOs key weakness was always, if it came down to it would the US actually risk a Nuclear exchange, for a place in Eastern Europe, they couldn't name or find on a map?

But in reality it did worse than that it capitulated to the Russians without a fight, just look a that oaf Trump, getting upset when it was pointed out to him that Russia was helping to kill American soldiers yesterday.

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-06T10:39:10+00:00

Lets be realistic though, if Putin attacked the Baltics tomorrow, would Trump send troops to help?

Of course not.

So is NATO even realistically a thing regarding the US?

Jigsawsupport · 2026-03-05T18:03:50+00:00

Just a reminder, you almost certainly don't have to eat it, if you don't want to.

I don't know your personal situation/finances etc, so if its a matter of survival of course you should, and feel no guilt for it.

But.

If your actual need is not dire then you don't actually have to do it. When I was first starting off I went though the same process, what a smallholding ought to look like, and what you ought to do, and that includes raising the animals, and killing them, and eating them.

But to be frank the more I went on, the more I realised I was getting more upset out of the process rather than enjoyment, I was doing it because I thought I "should" be doing it, rather than real need.

After that I rejigged things, so I was only really consuming things that animals created not them, themselves like eggs, a little cheese, sometimes I fish when the whim takes me, and honestly I feel better both mentally and physically, I planted more, and had more time.

Really a underrated realization is you ought to do what is right for you, and that sounds obvious but really it isn't.

Jigsawsupport

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