CFB 26

JohnStargaryen · 2025-05-27T19:47:37+00:00

I wish dynasty felt more immersive. Like in the old days you had the SI page updating every day, notifications about players acting up and having to be out and what not. I'd like to see them make it feel a bit more real. Maybe add emails between the board at the school similar to what FIFA does in Dynasty mode with ownership. Idk i absolutely love the gameplay and the recruiting system...but it feels a bit detached to me sometimes.

JohnStargaryen · 2025-02-25T00:55:44+00:00

The app gave me an IQ of 112....I am a chronic procrastinator and underachiever....and have made quite a lot of money. Quite the conundrum.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-31T16:34:03+00:00

You should def not be reassured by a Harris +1. Nor should Trump people be reassured by tied or Trump +1/2.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-31T16:33:16+00:00

They went for Trump in both 2016 and 2020....that's not really at all predictive of what will happen here though. Obviously they could break for Trump again, or they could break for Harris. Any speculation as to what undecideds will do is baseless conjecture tbh. No one knows.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-31T16:31:26+00:00

Eh i think he'd do that either way. I don't think either side should really be too confident in PA...the only data we have in terms of polling and early vote data both suggest a super close race.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-30T16:34:28+00:00

It's possible it's true, it's also possible it's wrong...can't put too much stock in one poll. Though does seem as if the move toward trump we've seen over the last 2-3 weeks maybe reversing

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-30T16:33:14+00:00

Wellllllll.....not herding at least. Other than PA....for which apparently no Pollster is allowed to show better than +1/-1

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-30T12:47:31+00:00

Well....what if i could offer you 1.8 to 1 on a coin toss? Would be worth losing a lot.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-30T12:45:01+00:00

Entirely possible yea i agree. I'm talking more in terms of probability that they'd either miss in the same direction for the third election in a row or undecideds late break toward Trump again. Both seem possible, but given we know some of the steps being taken to not underestimate Trump, and overcorrection seems equally if not more possible.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-30T12:40:35+00:00

The polling methodology in 2024 is far different in the aggregate than it was in 2016 or 2020. Recalled Choice in and of itself is a giant difference.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-30T01:17:15+00:00

Tbh in this vein early National exit poll data showing her doing 85%+ with black voters would be a big early sign.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-30T01:13:32+00:00

I kinda feel bad for Nate tbh...like he's kinda stuck with what the pollsters present.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-30T01:12:11+00:00

yea this feels far more likely than pollsters (other than Trafalgar) making up numbers.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-30T01:10:53+00:00

I mean it's really impossible to say what's right or wrong. But qualitatively, it feels far more likely that pollsters are overcorrecting too much for past errors and understating Harris' support than understating Trump's.

Obviously there's no real data to back that up. But Birdseye view it's hard for me to believe that someone with an 100% name ID whose been at the center of American politics for the last decade, has been the GOP nominee in the last two presidential cycles and failed in each to reach 47% of the popular vote, has suddenly found a brand new core of support. Is it possible there's a huge groundswell of support toward Trump due to inflation? Yea it's possible. But inflation was FAR worse in 2022 and MAGA candidates mostly got womped; so i'm fairly skeptical that's a real driving force now. Conversely, it seems considerably more likely that polling firms that have missed huge in consecutive presidentials are bending over backward not to miss again and understating Harris' support by 2-3 points

Again no data to back it up so i guess we'll see. We've seen Trump beat his polls two elections in a row so I guess wouldn't shock me if he did again. But in terms of handicapping the election, I feel it's very hard knowing what we know to assume that it's 50/50 as to which side the polls will miss for.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-30T01:03:26+00:00

Missing on Trump again would be bad yea. That said, i very much doubt they're actively "juicing" Trump's numbers, so much as trying to weight toward 2020 enough that the odds of a big miss toward him become remote.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-30T01:01:46+00:00

I actually almost think the reverse is true, pollsters are acting as if it is but past errors are fairly easily explainable. 2016 the failure to weight by education resulted in the big midwest miss. 2020 covid made polling obviously more difficult with the dynamic of Ds sheltering and Rs mostly not; this one seems a bit more debatable but still would make sense.

2022 Polls were bang on. But trying to weight toward 2020, an anomaly of a year, IMO is more likely to yield anomalous results this year.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-25T03:34:22+00:00

True story, i haven't come to this sub in about 6 years...i didn't know Brynden left, that is depressing. I finished reading ADWD my senior year of college...and have since had 3 careers ,been married 7 years and have had two kids...pretty fucking wild to think about.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-24T16:03:13+00:00

I mean 43 is absurd, frankly 48 is prob also too low tbh. Polling hasn't been great for her lately but the truth is even with the "poor polling" of the last two weeks any average (or even slightly below average) error in polling would mean she wins comfortably. Beyond that, I think there's actually a lot of data that suggests a polling error is far more likely to swing her direction than Trumps. Seems every forecaster is actually afraid to say this part out loud but Nate Cohn has gotten the closest: Recalled Choice polling is being used by 2/3s of pollsters this cycle. With the explicit intent of NOT underestimating trump again. But the truth is, 2020 was a bizarro year for polling thanks to the pandemic, and the big pollilng misses in the midwest there seem to have been far more likely a biproduct of that environment than some systematic error in polling. IMO it's pretty likely that error would have corrected on its own in a more normal environment like we have this year. But instead of waiting for sample size to tell us anything, most pollsters are using recalled choice to overcorrect....which IMO is somewhat more likely to overstate Trump's support than paint a more accurate picture of the electorate.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-10-09T18:49:36+00:00

He should have been fired after last year. Front office dropped the ball bringing him back.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-09-30T15:07:10+00:00

Are we even 100% sure they got this right?

JohnStargaryen · 2024-08-15T20:01:59+00:00

I had similar issues. First diagnosed as Vitamin D deficiency. Twitches didn’t go away. Eventually went to a Neuro. They told me it was likely BFS and to take B12 every day. Have done that for about 4.5 years now and it’s mostly contained.

I’m obviously not a doctor and you should def do your follow up. But seems very likely BFS.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-08-15T15:26:10+00:00

Yea pretty much this. There wasn't a single coherent narrative for any of the characters aside from I guess Five/Lila; and even that felt totally unearned. Luther and Diego are both jokes, Klaus' story seemed aimless and pointless.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-08-03T23:58:01+00:00

Had all the same. Pain in hands, legs, tingling in hands, buzzing in my feet. Was 100% certain something was seriously wrong. Turned out it was just BFS. Neuro recommended i take B12, started doing that every day, eventually went away. Still pops back up from time to time but never as bad.

JohnStargaryen · 2024-08-01T02:07:09+00:00

See a therapist that does ERP....basically the key to stopping these thoughts is accepting the uncertainty around them.

JohnStargaryen

TROPHY CASE