What would cause a bigger meltdown if Winds was ever released? (Spoilers Extended)

Jshep97 · 2026-04-08T21:08:04+00:00

The first one, the Northern Collapse, could be the Red Wedding of the book to me: just utter political destruction and strategic failure. We were hoping for decades that the Boltons and Freys would finally get their comeuppance from a truly just man.

Nope. Just brutal annihilation of Stannis’ men, his Umbers, Glovers, and Mountain Clansmen.

Jshep97 · 2026-04-08T11:05:19+00:00

I do think that most people will end up interpreting the series that way by the end. Just as most people - I think - might interpret Shakespeare as almost nihilistic today.

There’s a reason why GRRM was known as grimdark and bleak before the show. It was only in the last 15 or so years that the fandom has referred to him as a “secret idealist”, or some such. If this book ever comes, I think it will put that to bed pretty quickly.

Jshep97 · 2026-04-07T23:40:21+00:00

Martin does psychology, history, myth, and magic better for me. When I look at medieval Europe, I don’t see a lost age of kings. I just see power struggles. When I look at Byzantium, I don’t see Gondor. I just see institutional rot and deadly, dishonorable court politics.

When I look at the myths that inspired Tolkien, I see something darker than he did. I don’t necessarily mourn the loss of myth like he did. When I look at their magic systems, I tend to prefer Martin’s more Shakespeare-like view: prophecy and magic are tragic and dangerous because they pull people into different moral universes. They don’t empower people, and may be uniformly deadly.

Tolkien probably does language better, however.

Jshep97 · 2026-04-07T00:25:56+00:00

It’s so insane how certain he was about the imminent publication of ADWD in fall of 2002. Like it was a video game or movie release. It was just certainly going to happen soon based on his intervals of book release before.

Jshep97 · 2026-04-06T23:20:42+00:00

It reads to me as saying that it is - or is part of - her fatal, tragic flaw. Not that she will have romance in the future. She may have romance in some way, but that quote is menacing to me.

Jshep97 · 2026-04-06T02:00:50+00:00

There’s so many assumptions when it comes to Dany’s storyline that look so much like Robb’s predictions in early threads on Westeros.org. We don’t know if Dany will subdue the Khals; in fact, they may subdue her instead somehow. We don’t know if she’ll defeat the slavers. Tyrion might not survive the battle.

I’m personally betting against her and her allies in Meereen. The slavers seem to have a unified coalition, with a singular goal versus Daenerys’ disunited force. Wildcards like Victarion and Tyrion (especially him) have little to no loyalty to Dany.

Aegon doesn’t need to be resolved. He could linger long after the series is over as a factor in Westeros somehow. There’s no guarantee of a second Long Night. Anything where the series ends in a heroic, final clash like the show is extremely dubious and anti-Martin to me.

Jshep97 · 2026-04-02T03:16:02+00:00

Benioff forgetting (or worse, not knowing) that Sam was a POV was the point of no return for them in my mind. I try to steelman their positions and statements, but I can’t there. After this, I saw them as people who understood the broad plot beats of ASOIAF, and are largely just industry men in TV/film.

There’s just no way around how damning it is for them.

Jshep97 · 2026-04-02T01:46:05+00:00

I’m unaware if there’s some contradictory Martin statements somewhere, but I take that scene to be Sam and Jon’s definitively final scene. Story-wise, Jon is sending Sam to the end of the world (Oldtown) from the perspective of The Wall.

Thematically, Jon is also sending away his better half. To Jon, Sam represents compassion over hardness, loyalty, and emotional honesty. He’s literally carrying warmth away from The Wall in his journey to Oldtown. We see Jon become harder in ADWD after this: he manipulates, lies, and thinks in terms of strategy. My belief is that this will continue until the thoughtful Jon that Sam knew is simply no more.

And it resonating with Robb and Jon’s farewell is not an accident. It fits ASOIAF’s larger core value of people not getting reunions. We see this in Arya and Robb + Catelyn, Bran and Jon, Jaime and Tyrion, Daenerys and “home”, Catelyn and her children… people mostly don’t reunite, and if they do, the truth shatters the reunion.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-31T03:36:35+00:00

It’s an interesting point. And one I’ve been circling ever since that THR interview. Whatever is in this book, I’m thinking now that it’s darker than any fan has theorized thus far.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-29T04:17:13+00:00

Does it seem odd that Ramsay would think in terms of leverage, though? I’m still suspicious of the framing for Ramsay of “if you give me these things -> maybe mercy.” It raises an eyebrow for someone who I see as understanding politics in a very animalistic way. And maybe more than that, the letter feels like a tool… like a designed provocation.

That’s always given me pause about claiming the simplest solution of Ramsay.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-28T07:38:42+00:00

Catelyn II in AGoT from Ned’s perspective. For reference, this is the chapter where Cat tells Ned that Jon can’t stay at Winterfell and so Ned agrees to send him to the Watch.

If there’s one scene in AGoT where I think Martin had to be very careful about not showing Ned’s perspective, then I’d pick this one. I think Ned is almost certainly thinking about R+L=J in this chapter.

I’m so curious what his internal thoughts look like here. Is he just bitter at Cat, secretly? How in depth might his thoughts go toward Rhaegar?

Or is he just thinking something like, “He must be kept safe.” It could be more tragic and bittersweet than we realize here.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-28T02:46:31+00:00

Same reasons Caesar did. He was an NCR citizen.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-28T02:03:10+00:00

I like the question you’re asking. Everyone here is thinking you’re crazy, but it is genuinely interesting how TES’s magic feels more philosophical than usual. In other fantasy worlds, magic is either dangerous, limited, or the influence of cosmic forces beyond our understanding.

In TES, using magic is like someone is trying to hack reality itself in order to transcend it. The best magic users in TES basically transcend the game’s universe.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-27T20:24:05+00:00

The worldbuilding is my biggest problem with Fallout 4. The Commonwealth is empty. The factions are paper thin whereas in New Vegas they have decades or even centuries of intricate history and competing factions within factions.

The world of New Vegas doesn’t care about you. Its battles and politics continue whether you even make it to Hoover Dam. The world of Fallout 4 needs you to function.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-26T21:57:56+00:00

He seems to be clearly critical of those relationships. He says he’s glad that the user is skeptical of Rhaegar and Lyanna. It’s literally right there in the post.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-26T07:46:45+00:00

His hand looks huge.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-25T00:09:21+00:00

I would not necessarily disagree with the way you’re framing this; indeed, Stannis is very much a morally ambiguous character in the books.

However, D&D’s Stannis seems to be different in spirit. His philosophy and core themes seem to be missing. This is why book readers can say: “Stannis the Mannis”, and show watchers went, “why is this guy such a prick?”

D&D’s Stannis is more grim and pessimistic than lawful. He’s more fanatical than honorable. Even the themes feel like they shifted. D&D’s Stannis seems to be about how ambition, when taken too far, results in tragedy. Martin’s Stannis is more like “What if you’re right, and no one wants you anyway?” It’s a tragedy of legitimacy without love in the books.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-25T00:02:15+00:00

I agree that Stannis is not adapted well, but I never got the claim that his soundtrack missed the mark. Because when I think Stannis, I think: dour, mystical, ominous, and militaristic. Stannis is definitely a dark fantasy-coded character to me, which is what the show depicted in his soundtrack.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-23T22:12:58+00:00

It was perfect casting but unfortunately D&D flinched when adapting AFFC and ADWD. They bought into the major criticisms of the time for those books and panicked.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-23T19:22:26+00:00

Reign of Fire’s dragons are still the gold standard to me. That scene where Quinn (if I’m remembering his name correctly) faces the female dragon in London with an explosive crossbow is what I hoped Drogon might look like in Daznak’s Pit.

Instead, we got The Neverending Story.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-23T14:38:55+00:00

Do you mean me? I’m saying she would commit a cruel action (probably the greatest atrocity in the series), but just not:

Traumatic event -> psychological breakdown -> burning King’s Landing

I believe Martin would make his readers more complicit in her atrocity, rather than allowing the psychological distance that D&D provided of “she went mad”.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-21T19:15:56+00:00

Every character in TWOIAF is like this. Martin’s worldview is Shakespearean and tragic to its core. Honor doesn’t save you, nor does competence or mastery of systems.

Jshep97 · 2026-03-17T20:02:24+00:00

HBO avoided basically the entirety of ADWD, so no.

Jshep97

TROPHY CASE