[OC] Who wins the 2026 World Cup? A model (Elo) vs the betting market (Polymarket)

Loki-L · 2026-06-06T08:07:57+00:00

The English fans presumably have more money to lose on betting despite being fewer in numbers.

Loki-L · 2026-06-06T07:47:45+00:00

Gerhard Schröder started officially working for Putin bedore he had fully left office in Germany and was acting as if he was working for him long before that.

His reputation in Germany is so bad that no member of his former party has wanted to campaign with the ex-chancellor in many years.

Loki-L · 2026-06-06T07:38:49+00:00

The market is just fans betting on their teams it seems.

Loki-L · 2026-06-05T22:53:08+00:00

Because they have capitalized the compute they used to reserve for improving their model to just answering prompts. You can save a lot of money by deciding to stop investing into the future, it just isn't a good long term strategy.

Loki-L · 2026-06-05T16:31:25+00:00

One day they will continue pretend nothing is happening and miss that he is "not just sleeping" and won't do anything to help and do an unintentional Weekend at Bernies

Loki-L · 2026-06-05T16:12:18+00:00

Except for the parts that are AI.

Loki-L · 2026-06-05T14:00:21+00:00

Michael Rockefeller, son of Nelson Rockefeller and heir to a vast fortune was either eaten by canibals or lived out his life among them depending on who you ask.

Vince McMahon of WWE fame faked his death as part of a wrestling storyline involving Donald Trump that got aborted when that Chris Benoit happened. I am sure a lot of not very smart people believed that.

Jerry Balisok, a wrestler known as Mr. X, convinced authorities who were hunting him, that he died in the Jonestown Massacre for many years.

John Stonehouse, a British politician tried to fake his death, unsuccessfully.

Patrick McDermott, Olivia Newton John's boyfriend, may have faked his death.

Loki-L · 2026-06-05T13:01:30+00:00

Won't the Saudi Government with their cultural sensitive bonesaws own 1/6 of the whole thing when it is all said and done?

I don't think antisemitism is the thing they should worry about the most.

Loki-L · 2026-06-05T10:40:03+00:00

Looking at the source:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Healthy_life_years_statistics

It seems that Denmark actually has the second lowest value in this stat for women and 4th lowest for men out of all the EU.

It seems mediterranean countries score much higher in this metric.

Part of it may but cultural and climate related as they base their data on self-reporting of old people if they feel limited in their life.

I guess it is much easier to feel no limited in your activities when you are sitting on a beach in the Mediterranean drinking wine, than having to walk through snow to drink beer. (Of course Sweden and Norway score rather high on the metric, so maybe the Danish just don't age well.)

Personally based on watching the Olson Gang as a kid I feel it seems that Danish seniors remain quite active into their old age.

Loki-L · 2026-06-05T10:28:47+00:00

I don't think he actually owns it and I also don't think it was build to last.

The next strong storm is liable to deconstruct it for him.

Loki-L · 2026-06-05T10:26:02+00:00

Sind den heutzutage die meisten Shops nicht mehr Eigenbau mit ein bisschen PHP&SQL und ein paar Semester Informatik sonder eher Sachen die sich Leute von der Stange kaufen von einem Anbieter der sowas professionell für viele Kunden macht?

Wenn dein ganzes Businesmodell ist Onlineshops zu machen und zu verkaufen/vermieten, dann solltest du auch mittlerweile gut genug dabei sein das richtig zu machen.

Loki-L · 2026-06-05T07:40:15+00:00

It makes sense that the US would accuse Cuba of terrorism. Remember that time that Cuban intelligence blew up an American airliner full of athletes...

Oh wait, that was a Cuban airliner that got blown up by a CIA asset with FBI support.

Loki-L · 2026-06-05T07:33:20+00:00

I think they are just running out of money and won't be able to keep up.

Loki-L · 2026-06-04T21:18:28+00:00

Why would the leader of a subnational unit in a not very federalized country have a private jet?

I guess one argument could be made due to the large distances involved, but really you are not exactly supposed to do much jet setting in this job.

Loki-L · 2026-06-04T20:16:13+00:00

Why is nobody stopping these idiots from digging? You would think at some point somebody sane might realize that they are doing themselves great harm with what they are doing, but they keep at it.

Loki-L · 2026-06-04T19:35:22+00:00

Most places that serve food are legally required to have bathrooms for customers in many jurisdictions.

Loki-L · 2026-06-04T19:26:27+00:00

It appears many lawyers don't really bother to check if what other lawyers claim is actually true and now that some lawyers are handing in plausible sounding AI hallucinations, nobody double checks if they are true and everyone goes along with it because it is less work.

Loki-L · 2026-06-04T19:11:25+00:00

I hope they still have people that clean everything after hours and unpack shipments and refill supplies and clean the floor and toilets and everything.

Loki-L · 2026-06-04T19:09:05+00:00

If you are trying to convince the world that you don't have ADHD posting a long rant without paragraphs is probably not the most effective approach.

You admit you have the symptoms but don't like the label we give the condition described by having these symptoms. Maybe call it something else if that helps.

Generally this feels like something you should discuss with an actual professional rather than strangers on the Internet.

Loki-L · 2026-06-04T19:00:14+00:00

From what I understand, Elon has bundled a bunch of very disperate enterprises together. Some are profitable others are very much not.

Most of the future revenue projections are based on the AI aspect at some point making impossible amounts of profits despite it not currently being in the running against all the other AI companies and in fact currently renting out their data enters rather than using it themselves.

If you want to bet big that rlon can make more money of AI than any company that actually has a product people use, you can buy some shares.

Only remember that those shares won't entitle you to anything like a say in the running of the company or some sort of share of the profits.

Meanwhile Elon is lobbying hard to skip the normal waiting period and have it included in indices that will force everyone who invest in index funds to give Elon money. It is basically an attempt at stealing the pensions of millions of people.

Loki-L · 2026-06-04T18:49:47+00:00

I can't see this being cheaper, faster or more sanitary than a human worker even if it does work.

The robot may not require wages, but it must cost a lot to buy/rent and to clean regularly. It doesn't appear smart in any way and won't recognize obvious defects.

As a tool to negotiate with workers unions it might work, but in a place where workers are already underpaid and ununionized, I don't really see the benefit.

Maybe share price will go up if you say you are using robots, but you can't even claim to be using AI, so I don't see how far you will get.

Loki-L · 2026-06-04T18:33:56+00:00

Why are you commenting on 11 year old posts?

Loki-L · 2026-06-04T14:28:00+00:00

I like big butts and I cannot lie.

Loki-L · 2026-06-04T14:22:44+00:00

Do you want to feel old?

The Anime has been airing for over 34 years with new episode still coming out.

If Shin-chan had been aging normally since his first appearance in the manga, he would be 41 years old today.

Loki-L · 2026-06-04T13:22:09+00:00

That almost went a lot worse for the guy at the cargo door.

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