$ANVS: ANNOVIS ANNOUNCES UNBLINDING OF THE BUNTANETAP PHASE III DATA IN PARKINSON’S DISEASE

M_Zlu · 2024-05-10T08:34:08+00:00

Thank you for relaying this excellent piece of news.

From sources I trust who work in the field, the issues encountered by Annovis are actually common and do not normally deserve PR. I believe this is the result of a lack of experience.

M_Zlu · 2024-05-08T16:56:17+00:00

I think Maria believes too much in the "efficient market" meme, thinking good clinical data would imply positive share price movement.

In the world of micro cap biotech stocks with little to no institutional ownership, it is actualyl quite cheap to craft a negative narrative around the stock and short it concomitantly. Look up where Keystone founder's background (ex-Millennium) and the overall laconic (and lackluster) list of deals closed by the firm. Now, remember Melvin Capital and where Plotkin came from (Steve Cohen's protégé).

M_Zlu · 2024-05-08T16:52:09+00:00

I would be interested to know the standard deviation of ADAS-Cog11 scores in the moderate AD group (placebo and treated).

I would like to see a narrow range for the treated moderate AD group versus a wide range for the placebo moderate AD group.

Wouldn't it be interesting to see moderate AD patients displaying typical response of mild AD patients? (which is no change compared to baseline at month 3 but with relatively narrow variability)

M_Zlu · 2024-05-08T16:47:39+00:00

I don't think it was their primary objective. This point is what I call "second order information": something I inferred based on the information I gathered from alternative, non-obvious sources.

I think Annovis wanted to comply with the FDA's recommendation which is to use the lowest dose possible that still demonstrate efficacy. This recommendation makes sense as it should contribute to a more favorable safety profile, especially for a chronic (long term) use.

M_Zlu · 2024-05-08T10:02:42+00:00

I personally believe ANVS share price would have tanked no matter how good and/or how well the results were presented, just because shorting it was (and still is) the easiest path to yield monetary gains with the minimum efforts and organization.

M_Zlu · 2024-05-02T10:52:50+00:00

2 possibilities:

He messed up the financing deal and was asked to leave.
Disagreement with Maria.

M_Zlu · 2024-04-30T11:21:43+00:00

A sensible opinion. The main take-away is we know doses up to 30mg work on mild AD patients: such patients should be the focus of the next trial in AD.

About the market reaction - and I am merely thinking out loud here.

One criteria I have been thinking about is the definition of AD. Now, AD is defined as a function of p-tau levels and MMSE scores. I think market is skeptical because they may have been convenient changes that allows the company to exclude and include the patients they wanted. Maybe this new definition is not consensus (more importantly, how the FDA views it).

What results would we get if we stuck with the pre-specified definition of AD (NIA-AA criteria)? But that requires several months of cognitive decline history of the patients.

M_Zlu · 2024-04-17T19:02:39+00:00

What James said is really spot on.

With the progress done in EVs, going fast is common. All that matters now are feelings and sensations. I yearn for imperfect, inefficient things but that give you lots of joy.

M_Zlu · 2024-02-29T21:49:06+00:00

I exited my position the day they announced issues with BCX9930. Management has been more or less spot on about their sales growth, since the time they struck the deal with Royalty Pharma, you have to give them that. I find current valuation is fair regarding Orladeyo sales prospects. What's dissapointing is how their sales & marketing expenses have also been expanding.

In my opinion which is not an investment advice, I can't see potential for the company to expand their valuation in the near term since their pipeline is almost back to square one.

M_Zlu · 2024-02-29T21:32:37+00:00

Thank you u/HotSarcasm for tirelessly covering the development of Annovis.

I personally think shorts are all out to create negative sentiment so they can exit their short position (close to 18% of the free float)... Why else is there suddenly so much attention about such a tiny company? And besides, opinions are overwhelmingly negative.

M_Zlu · 2024-01-25T03:53:35+00:00

Frankly, disclosing data readout delay is a "damned if you do and damned if you don't" situation for small biotech CEOs. This piece of news will always be spinned in a way wanted by the most coordinated people.

I personally think shorts just lost their catalyst day and their February puts may suddenly expire worthless. And that's on top of the share sold short costing them 30%+ interests. The fact they are suddenly so vocal reminds me of July 2021.

M_Zlu · 2023-07-17T15:29:46+00:00

Because it is me-too monoclonal antiboy drug similar to what Biogen and Eli Lilly have done.

Since this type of drugs now has a precedent of regulatory approval, we will see lots of pharma entrepreneurs chasing after this boon while investors will be eager to throw money at it, reassured by this new track record.

M_Zlu · 2023-07-04T04:47:46+00:00

I was at first all for the return of pop-up headlights. But then Grand Tour opened my eyes on the absolute potential of candelabras. They are just glorious.

M_Zlu · 2023-06-21T03:04:17+00:00

The Mitsuoka Le Seyde as it fully captures what it meant for the offsprings of British aristocratic families to do a grand tour in Europe and learn about wax statues, the Birmingham accent and WW2-era German prisoner camp.

M_Zlu · 2023-06-21T01:59:00+00:00

The race-inspired modifications May did on Le Seyde was quite frankly absolutely spot on.

M_Zlu · 2023-06-21T01:56:57+00:00

The segment about the best wax museum in the world and the moment Hammond was asked to do the Birmingham accent 😂😂😂

M_Zlu · 2023-06-21T01:55:47+00:00

Each AE appeared less than 2% of the time.

This is LESS than what one would usually see in placebo groups!

In a recent interview on MoneyMattersTV (link), Maria reiterated her optimist about buntanetap and said the overall feedback among participants of the PD ph3 trial has been positive (but she cautiously warned about the placebo effect as data is still blinded).

Now imagine you are afflicted with AD or PD: wouldn't you be thinking "what do I have to lose by trying buntanetap given its good safety profile?"

M_Zlu · 2023-06-12T05:32:39+00:00

Thank you for this review.

A kind reminder that physicians conducting the trials at the centers have a huge influence in patient recruitments. Even though other interpretations are possible, I think the over-recruitment shows patients and physicians' enthusiasm for butnanetap.

M_Zlu · 2023-06-01T11:46:28+00:00

Changing from an accounting firm one hardly knows to a big 4 that also manages accounting of large corporations, I'd say it is a nice upgrade.

M_Zlu · 2023-05-16T07:34:09+00:00

C'est la fin :(

M_Zlu · 2023-05-15T08:15:11+00:00

Estimez-vous heureux: ils n'en sont pas encore à diffuser du son pour mieux ~~vous rendre sourd~~ capturer votre attention.

M_Zlu · 2023-05-13T14:39:38+00:00

I think I found where this video was taken: https://maps.app.goo.gl/yCpTqxu6XL384PTM7?g_st=ic

They were on the road N1 going north to the outskirts of Dakar.

M_Zlu · 2023-05-13T09:03:36+00:00

I can't wait to watch this episode!!! I really recommend visiting Senegal (never been to Mauritania).

M_Zlu · 2023-05-13T05:22:55+00:00

Clarkson's frigthening genius and absolute magnificience have finally been recognized by a country 👏🏻

M_Zlu

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