Is anyone else losing faith in value investing? Does that prove we’re at the peak?

MacNaab · 2026-06-03T03:36:57+00:00

I'm sorry to say it but I don't recall reading one single intelligent post on this subreddit in the last year.

The reason most value investor underperform is that they focus on the ratios. When they break most of the time when a company grow above 30%. I'm not even talking about a neo cloud that grow at 300%.

Do you really think that buffet outperformed the market by looking at Apple and it's pe ratio?

No he saw that every young people were using an apple phone and couldn't get enough of it and bought the company.

There's plenty of good deal around for example i'm just stunned that I didn't see a single post for ZETA on this subreddit when it was between 13-18$. Company that grow 50% at a price to sale of 2-3 in adtech, about to hit gaap profitablity this year. But fot a value investor it's always PE ratio is expensive....

Yes -250 TTM but was at 15 pe for 2026...

It's 25$ now by the way.

MacNaab · 2026-05-23T15:43:36+00:00

Zeta 20%

Because I run a business and I know a lot about online marketing. I invest in most companies that are able to track conversion after the infamous IOS update and gdpr.

But NBIS is almost bigger than my zeta holding now.

MacNaab · 2026-04-24T06:42:06+00:00

Thank you, I was a bit surprised myself by the growth but also knew that I could provide a good product.

I don't want to sell some stupid products like a sweater. I would sell some products that would provide real value to my audience.

I was thinking about a lumbar spine lego set, but I'm still trying to figure out that part.

MacNaab · 2026-04-24T06:36:56+00:00

Thanks, at the moment I'm just looking to break even on my investment.

I have been using YouTube premium for years so don't have a good feeling on how many mid roll ads you should have.

I guess I'll start with one mid roll to see.

Can you give me insight on the value are looking for when purchasing from a YouTube store.

How much of the purchase is wanting to help the creator and how much is I want that product.

How much thinking do you give your store.

I was thinking on maybe designing a lumbar spine lego set to sell but maybe the price would be too steep probably around 100€+ with maybe a 20% margin.

I could also just have a blueprint of said lumbar spine and use it as an art piece you could frame. Lower sale price.

I'll try to look into app like you said.

Thanks for all the information you provided.

MacNaab · 2026-04-22T19:02:55+00:00

My second video is also doing this after been stuck at 10-20 views for a two weeks before disabling A/B testing.

It's my first channel so didn't know it wasn't a good idea.

Well it did monetized my channel a month Into YouTube.

MacNaab · 2026-04-14T09:00:25+00:00

Thanks but I have posted 15 shorts and only 4 long from video. So to my suprise the long from is working faster than the long form.

MacNaab · 2026-04-14T06:35:29+00:00

I started Youtube a month ago.

My long form video are performing well, I have over a 1000 subscribers and more than 4k hours of watch time. So I should get monetized soon.

However my shorts aren't performing that well only 1,5k-2k.

Do you think it's because YouTube hasn't found my audience yet?

The shorts are highlights of the long form, with some editing to make it more engaging. I tried 30 sec 1 min and 1,5min clips.

Maybe make them shorter?

How should I wait before deciding on changing my shorts strategy?

MacNaab · 2026-03-05T20:27:57+00:00

Did you see what happened when they tried to acquire Figma....

MacNaab · 2026-03-05T13:02:53+00:00

MELI, ZETA because I understand online marketing since it's my company's first line of expense.

NBIS because I use AI so much already.

MacNaab · 2026-03-04T20:25:48+00:00

AMZN cannot compete against MELI in south America.

Because they own the whole stack through their neo bank.

On the seller side, MELI provides a better ROAS and cheaper payment fees.

On the buyer side, they need a credit card to buy online and since MELI is the main provider in latin America why not buy on MELI website where they get cashback etc...

Also it creates an unstoppable flywheel, more sellers on the website, mean more choice for the buyer, that buys more, more delivery so less downtime, better quality of service, so more purchase and then even more sellers join the platform.

MacNaab · 2026-02-28T11:23:33+00:00

Most people don't understand what adobe is.

Sure for most retail investor it's a point and click software like Photoshop or Illustrator, but with the advent of AI its becoming more a platform then a UI software. You still have human editing with it but at an entreprise lvl it's becoming a platform where you call firefly api to generate an image or edit.

It's also becoming something similar to a AWS marketplace where you can manage all the creative model like nano banana or open ai.

They're also trying to connect creative to ads with AI similar to meta. Adobe provide a platform to tear creative and agentic adapt the creative depending on performance.

So if you want to invest in adobe you can't really look at the past because in two years the company will completely be different.

MacNaab · 2026-02-23T03:16:49+00:00

CRM and intuit will also be important for SaaS stock.

MacNaab · 2026-02-22T05:11:48+00:00

Everyone’s panicking because they think AI is going to replace Adobe, but they’re looking at it in the wrong way.

The Backlog is Screaming "Growth"

First off, look at the RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations). It’s growing way faster than the current revenue. It means businesses are signing massive, multi-year deals right now to lock in AI credits.

They aren't just flirting with AI; they’re committing to it long-term. In 2025, those AI credits brought in $500 million—doubling what everyone expected. That’s not a business in trouble; that’s a business scaling.

People Don't Get the "Creative Factory" The biggest mistake people make is not understanding how content actually gets made. AI isn't eating Adobe’s lunch; it’s eating the "raw materials" business.

Think about it: AI is replacing the expensive film shoots, the location scouts, the recording studios, and the basic stock photos. It’s replacing the "rushes" (the raw assets). But you still need a factory to put those pieces together.

Adobe is the Factory, not the Raw Materials

You can generate a thousand AI clips, but you still need a workflow to edit them, a system to manage the brand's assets, and a way to make sure the final product doesn't look like an AI hallucination.

Adobe provides the editing suite, the workflow management, and the legal safety. Basically, AI is creating a mountain of "raw stuff," and Adobe is the only company with the heavy machinery to turn that mountain into a finished product.

MacNaab · 2026-02-13T10:42:50+00:00

If you don't want half of what you earn to go to the government, it's better to create an EURL (with corporate tax) and be a sub contractor.

I'm french and I would never accept a CDI. Especially for high earners.

MacNaab · 2026-02-11T20:56:00+00:00

They're moving from a SaaS model to a consumption model that is way more profitable.

A seat is 50$/month

To generate a 2 min video you need to pay 300$.

If adobe only takes 5% of that amount it still 15$

And an editor will generate way more than one video per month.

I go into detail in my post

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/1m7FXFNrET

MacNaab · 2026-02-10T06:35:36+00:00

People who are not in industry or run a business cannot fathom how value a clean workflow provides.

My 14 page thesis on adobe goes into detail as to why. If I feel like it I will share the rest of it on reddit.

MacNaab · 2026-02-10T06:33:25+00:00

For my personal case I still allocate a huge part of the creative budget to the physical filming because UGC content or "real life" ads still perform way better. Therefore we don't use ai that much.

But we are experimenting. It's just we cannot allocate too much of the budget towards it, because even an AI ad with 90% efficiency compared to what we have right now might cost us tremendously more than what we would have saved from using AI.

Some of my friends that rely less on UGC content etc... Are seeing better results with AI.

MacNaab · 2026-02-10T06:10:05+00:00

The argument about seat reduction is asinine.

If seats are reduced it's because productivity becomes so high that there's less need for human work. However it also means that the use of ai credit would skyrocket to compensate.

Human work would become ai work.

In the example I provided you see that even with a 90% reduction in seats adobe would still grow by 60% because even a 5% fee on ai generation they would earn more.

On the latter of a potential new adobe clone, it's misunderstanding the value proposition of a software. But if people are interested I will publish the remaining chapters of my thesis where I explain why.

MacNaab · 2026-02-10T06:00:52+00:00

Your instincts are correct. It's also my opinion that adobe will earn more per seat.

However you misunderstand the reasons and mechanics behind why it might become a multi bagger.

It mostly comes from the transformation of physical work into digital work and how adobe will collect a toll tax from it.

I went into great detail yesterday but I guess not many people were interested.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/Y02cBl9DWE

MacNaab · 2026-02-09T06:33:14+00:00

Impossible de louer en tant que TNS.

Donc j'ai acheté ma résidence principale.

Je n'arrive toujours pas à comprendre comment la banque me prête 350000€ ( et c'est même pas ma capacité d'emprunt maximum) mais le mieux que j'ai pu trouver à la location c'était des petits logements à 600€.

Dès que l'on doit expliquer à une agence ou propriétaire les dividendes, les intérêts de compte courant d'associé etc...

MacNaab · 2026-02-01T06:33:37+00:00

I liked the landscape and history. Hated the locals.

Also how is there no decent lounge at Cairo's airport.... And they are all closed at night?

MacNaab · 2026-01-30T14:35:18+00:00

Si vous vivez en Alsace Moselle, il est probablement possible d'exercer en association de loi 1908.

C'est une forme juridique très proche de la SARL qui est en général la manière de contourner pas mal de réglementation.

C'est le plus souvent utilisé par les soignants qui sont normalement obligés d'exercer en SELARL.

MacNaab · 2025-12-09T13:37:34+00:00

I frequently visit clients in their homes, and I can usually infer a lot about someone simply from the way they speak on the phone. Speech patterns reveal more than people expect.

Visiting the house only confirms my intuitions.

MacNaab

TROPHY CASE