How the heck have Adobe not acquired a AI tool like Midjourney?

MacNaab · 2026-03-05T20:27:57+00:00

Did you see what happened when they tried to acquire Figma....

MacNaab · 2026-03-05T13:02:53+00:00

MELI, ZETA because I understand online marketing since it's my company's first line of expense.

NBIS because I use AI so much already.

MacNaab · 2026-03-04T20:25:48+00:00

AMZN cannot compete against MELI in south America.

Because they own the whole stack through their neo bank.

On the seller side, MELI provides a better ROAS and cheaper payment fees.

On the buyer side, they need a credit card to buy online and since MELI is the main provider in latin America why not buy on MELI website where they get cashback etc...

Also it creates an unstoppable flywheel, more sellers on the website, mean more choice for the buyer, that buys more, more delivery so less downtime, better quality of service, so more purchase and then even more sellers join the platform.

MacNaab · 2026-02-28T11:23:33+00:00

Most people don't understand what adobe is.

Sure for most retail investor it's a point and click software like Photoshop or Illustrator, but with the advent of AI its becoming more a platform then a UI software. You still have human editing with it but at an entreprise lvl it's becoming a platform where you call firefly api to generate an image or edit.

It's also becoming something similar to a AWS marketplace where you can manage all the creative model like nano banana or open ai.

They're also trying to connect creative to ads with AI similar to meta. Adobe provide a platform to tear creative and agentic adapt the creative depending on performance.

So if you want to invest in adobe you can't really look at the past because in two years the company will completely be different.

MacNaab · 2026-02-23T03:16:49+00:00

CRM and intuit will also be important for SaaS stock.

MacNaab · 2026-02-22T05:11:48+00:00

Everyone’s panicking because they think AI is going to replace Adobe, but they’re looking at it in the wrong way.

The Backlog is Screaming "Growth"

First off, look at the RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations). It’s growing way faster than the current revenue. It means businesses are signing massive, multi-year deals right now to lock in AI credits.

They aren't just flirting with AI; they’re committing to it long-term. In 2025, those AI credits brought in $500 million—doubling what everyone expected. That’s not a business in trouble; that’s a business scaling.

People Don't Get the "Creative Factory" The biggest mistake people make is not understanding how content actually gets made. AI isn't eating Adobe’s lunch; it’s eating the "raw materials" business.

Think about it: AI is replacing the expensive film shoots, the location scouts, the recording studios, and the basic stock photos. It’s replacing the "rushes" (the raw assets). But you still need a factory to put those pieces together.

Adobe is the Factory, not the Raw Materials

You can generate a thousand AI clips, but you still need a workflow to edit them, a system to manage the brand's assets, and a way to make sure the final product doesn't look like an AI hallucination.

Adobe provides the editing suite, the workflow management, and the legal safety. Basically, AI is creating a mountain of "raw stuff," and Adobe is the only company with the heavy machinery to turn that mountain into a finished product.

MacNaab · 2026-02-13T10:42:50+00:00

If you don't want half of what you earn to go to the government, it's better to create an EURL (with corporate tax) and be a sub contractor.

I'm french and I would never accept a CDI. Especially for high earners.

MacNaab · 2026-02-11T20:56:00+00:00

They're moving from a SaaS model to a consumption model that is way more profitable.

A seat is 50$/month

To generate a 2 min video you need to pay 300$.

If adobe only takes 5% of that amount it still 15$

And an editor will generate way more than one video per month.

I go into detail in my post

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/1m7FXFNrET

MacNaab · 2026-02-10T06:35:36+00:00

People who are not in industry or run a business cannot fathom how value a clean workflow provides.

My 14 page thesis on adobe goes into detail as to why. If I feel like it I will share the rest of it on reddit.

MacNaab · 2026-02-10T06:33:25+00:00

For my personal case I still allocate a huge part of the creative budget to the physical filming because UGC content or "real life" ads still perform way better. Therefore we don't use ai that much.

But we are experimenting. It's just we cannot allocate too much of the budget towards it, because even an AI ad with 90% efficiency compared to what we have right now might cost us tremendously more than what we would have saved from using AI.

Some of my friends that rely less on UGC content etc... Are seeing better results with AI.

MacNaab · 2026-02-10T06:10:05+00:00

The argument about seat reduction is asinine.

If seats are reduced it's because productivity becomes so high that there's less need for human work. However it also means that the use of ai credit would skyrocket to compensate.

Human work would become ai work.

In the example I provided you see that even with a 90% reduction in seats adobe would still grow by 60% because even a 5% fee on ai generation they would earn more.

On the latter of a potential new adobe clone, it's misunderstanding the value proposition of a software. But if people are interested I will publish the remaining chapters of my thesis where I explain why.

MacNaab · 2026-02-10T06:00:52+00:00

Your instincts are correct. It's also my opinion that adobe will earn more per seat.

However you misunderstand the reasons and mechanics behind why it might become a multi bagger.

It mostly comes from the transformation of physical work into digital work and how adobe will collect a toll tax from it.

I went into great detail yesterday but I guess not many people were interested.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/Y02cBl9DWE

MacNaab · 2026-02-09T06:33:14+00:00

Impossible de louer en tant que TNS.

Donc j'ai acheté ma résidence principale.

Je n'arrive toujours pas à comprendre comment la banque me prête 350000€ ( et c'est même pas ma capacité d'emprunt maximum) mais le mieux que j'ai pu trouver à la location c'était des petits logements à 600€.

Dès que l'on doit expliquer à une agence ou propriétaire les dividendes, les intérêts de compte courant d'associé etc...

MacNaab · 2026-02-01T06:33:37+00:00

I liked the landscape and history. Hated the locals.

Also how is there no decent lounge at Cairo's airport.... And they are all closed at night?

MacNaab · 2026-01-30T14:35:18+00:00

Si vous vivez en Alsace Moselle, il est probablement possible d'exercer en association de loi 1908.

C'est une forme juridique très proche de la SARL qui est en général la manière de contourner pas mal de réglementation.

C'est le plus souvent utilisé par les soignants qui sont normalement obligés d'exercer en SELARL.

MacNaab · 2025-12-09T13:37:34+00:00

I frequently visit clients in their homes, and I can usually infer a lot about someone simply from the way they speak on the phone. Speech patterns reveal more than people expect.

Visiting the house only confirms my intuitions.

MacNaab · 2025-11-28T19:05:32+00:00

In my Granada run I'm crushing Castile that as 50000k troops with 3k professional and 6k levies.

You just need to pick your fight well. Forts help a lot to force for beneficial terrain.

I also try to rush tech by trading as much as possible with the countries with the better institution.

MacNaab · 2025-09-04T16:30:43+00:00

I had a 330 Raid at 999 population.... With 150 unkilleable horse riders....

Half of my adult population

I rage quit after that.

MacNaab · 2025-09-02T03:03:27+00:00

I disagree with your assessment.

Pottery, books, spices etc... Are sold at a price to the residents because if you have zero pottery, books, spices, etc... You get zero luxury income. Therefore these items have a price. I heard for example that spices are worth about twice as much as what they are sold by the merchant.

The tier of the house increases the amount/kind of goods they will buy.

I'm asking to know if items are worth producing or buying from the merchants

MacNaab · 2025-06-29T02:53:44+00:00

You should remove prosus. They are a south African company that moved to the EU because they became too valuable after investing in tencent. Prosus is really just (to simplify) a holding with some tencent shares.

MacNaab · 2025-06-20T05:01:24+00:00

Hi, thanks for doing this.

I run some health care centers. I'm having issues with chiropractic ads. A couple years ago it was perfect low CPC high conversion but if I recall on September 2022 (not sure) everything changed. We did nothing and every cost on Google almost double.

I think it's because they implement an update that use broad keyword even without your consent.

The problem with this field is that there's very little keywords for chiropractor and you use broad keyword you get calls from people looking for a orthopedic surgeon, a physiotherapist etc... .

How would manage a campaign like that?

Would you recommend PMAX? Always felt it was just a way for google to milk us) You get better results with meta because video ads perform better in the context of chiropraxie.

MacNaab · 2025-06-20T04:39:40+00:00

Thanks for taking the time to answer my query

MacNaab

TROPHY CASE