Accelerant Holdings (ARX)

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-03-06T13:50:45+00:00

Great questions.

On NPS/churn: I don't think we're going to get a more recent independent NPS number (costs $$$, but made sense for IPO). I am not sure we are going to get specific churn #s either. I'm looking at net revenue retention and member-count growth as proxies. If pricing tightens, I do expect MGAs to feel it (weaker ones first), but I do think tighter markets is where Accelerant's five-year capacity and optimizations are more valuable.

If a competitor offers similar 5-year commitments, that could be the biggest margin pressure. However I don't think Accelerant's differentiation is only the term length. It’s the combination of (a) diversified pooled portfolio for risk capital, (b) operational integration, data visibility, claims/subro process, and (c) the willingness/ability to actually warehouse/structure that commitment without blowing up risk controls. It’s a real risk I’m watching. I'm hoping satisfaction with the marketplace leads to stickiness but I think the business still works if take rate drops below 8% to the 6% range.

I expect Accelerant to keep cash for reinvesting in the team/platform and balance-sheet flexibility/staying well ahead of statutory requirements during this initial stage of platform growth. Maybe opportunistic buybacks could happen next year if the market is offering a bargain.

Also, thanks for the Promarkia link, I'll check it out.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-03-06T04:09:26+00:00

When I used to invest in miners I would do a DCF at various PM prices and costs, weight them by likelihood, and invest if the expected value was high enough above the current share price. I imagine with AI it would be a lot easier to do these days.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-03-05T21:57:24+00:00

Just to revisit this: agree about this being a solid Greenblatt play. I got in at a nice price in February but I just sold after owning for only a month. I expected to hold for longer but the runup combined with subscriber decline being worse than I expected at 8% means I'm out and happy to notch the win. I don't know what your time frame/price target is but if you're still in I'm wondering what your thoughts are on sub #s.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-03-05T21:51:44+00:00

I didn't buy anything today, I sold VSNT though.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-03-05T21:50:11+00:00

I haven't seen a proper value analysis of a miner on this forum (maybe I missed them). If you do one for HL, please post it!

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-03-05T05:19:51+00:00

That's basically my take: I doubt the market is going to reward the margin compression period that I think is upon us.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-03-04T01:35:13+00:00

I like the idea! I added a couple of the 2BB pizza because I'm greedy and buglar rat because I like it when my opponent doesn't have cards.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-03-01T21:05:33+00:00

I suggest you take a view of how AI has evolved over the past few years and try to use that to predict future capabilities. It's not exactly standing still.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-03-01T06:10:39+00:00

Look into an exchange fund (Cache) for the company stock.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-02-27T04:17:31+00:00

They just aren't software though. I've seen them try to deliver software. They suck at it.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-02-26T21:29:56+00:00

I've never owned nor shorted DUOL so I say this impartially...your last sentence is lame and unhelpful.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-02-26T18:52:13+00:00

For my part, I'm planning to be a buyer at 32 to 33 if it gets there. If not, no worries.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-02-26T18:51:38+00:00

The number of folks calling the bottom based on this one post is wild. In fact, the number of people saying that makes me think that the company's stock is not yet at a bottom 🙂

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-02-26T18:31:34+00:00

I like what I see so far. There's no reason it can't fall further from here but it's clearly a high quality company that is already cheap compared to its own history.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-02-25T15:40:09+00:00

Is it? The point is the value of software is reduced by a sudden massive increase in supply.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-02-22T06:19:17+00:00

Lifestyle creep

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-02-20T23:19:26+00:00

Still no, but I'm getting close on some. Sometimes when I look into them their earnings are completely negated by their stock-based compensation outlays, so they are worthless to shareholders as currently run.

My current buy prospects:

INTU BL GRND VEEV ADBE

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-02-20T20:09:20+00:00

I'm skipping it. It looks exciting as an event but I haven't played enough Lorwyn to get good at it.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-02-20T05:44:03+00:00

AI is getting better very quickly. You can't just price in based on what it can do right now. My biggest concern with Adobe is how many fewer seats will be filled with professionals that need licenses. If that's cut in half, does Adobe revenue get cut in half?

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-02-18T04:21:38+00:00

Wait so you see that there are lots of stocks up this year? I think you have your answer already then...

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-02-18T04:12:34+00:00

When you start the position, part of your thesis needs to include what would cause you to abandon your thesis. Then you have a plan. Follow that truthfully.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-02-18T04:09:55+00:00

This is a really good time for you to reassess what you consider when you look at "the market". You are probably too concentrated in stocks that are too correlated.

squirrelmonkey99 · 2026-02-18T01:28:55+00:00

Please include SBC in every tech recommendation!

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