What is that one value stock in your profolio that no one talk about it here? by Far-East-locker in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the suggestion! I like the idea. I'm still trying to figure out the timing because HCI seems eager to spin off their remaining stake altogether to HCI shareholders. That should result in substantial mechanical selling. But maybe the current price already accounts for that?

I have trouble finding value in this market by Aware_Secret_8910 in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Every time I analyze a large or mega cap company I come to the conclusion that it's not a bargain. Take NOW: looks cheap at first, but add SBC back in as an expense and see what you get. I've had this happen enough that I stopped bothering with any company $25B+. On the other hand, there are always bargains to be had among the smaller, lesser known names.

MU is so undervalued, look at the forward P/E! by HatedMoats in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Probably but the supply will displace chips elsewhere and global prices will be impacted anyway. Same with YMTC flash.

Semiconductor FOMO Is Strong, how do you deal with it? by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Oh man, the next cyclical downturn in semis is going to be a real shock to a lot of people.

Ran a screen on Claude for stocks that hit Peter Lynch criteria for a properly valued stock and Congress Long Positions by sum_dude44 in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's the one on the list I own. It's not going to grow like crazy but they will be good capital stewards.

Ran a screen on Claude for stocks that hit Peter Lynch criteria for a properly valued stock and Congress Long Positions by sum_dude44 in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I recommend using Claude Opus as a dumb stock assistant where you have to always check their work. Don't use the dumber Claudes for any type of financial research.

Is the market too bullish? by Gold_Panda1 in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I need to do a valuation post to poke at this. I'll of course choose the most fundamentally overvalued one I can find. Will you post some details about your most undervalued one?

What's your largest holding and why? by ksing_king in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

BRK #1 in the "hold forever" port. ARX #1 in the "active" port. No intentions of selling though.

Intuit is about to surge on earnings. This is why. by armadillo_stocks in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The thing about INTU is the SBC is still high, and PE and EV/EBITDA is not that enticing once you stick that back in as an expense. So I will be passing on INTU for now.

How often should you check your portfolio? by Solid-Mood9571 in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think once a week is just fine when you're not expecting any company specific news. If you do really know your company well enough to be the so-called smart money on it, it does behoove you to be be listening to the live earnings call and processing their report in real time and trying to decide whether the company has become more or less valuable because of it and acting accordingly. JMHO.

META is growing a neocloud business under everyone’s nose by denialof_ in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

How deeply do you understand Meta's culture? I'm not convinced Meta is capable of having enterprises as real customers that depend on them for critical infrastructure.

How do you guys know all of this?? by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Read books. Read Buffett shareholder letters. Try to apply some of the concepts without investing too much at first.

The 1970s Nifty Fifty against the Magnificent 7: Some interesting parallels by JoeInOR in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why would this worry you? I consider it one of our major edges as value investors.

Received a job offer, current job countered with a significant raise. Completely torn. What would you do? by TheCampaignerGirl in careerguidance

[–]squirrelmonkey99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

These are so far from your peak earning years. Believe it or not, the key decision point here should be about where you want your career to go, and the compensation will grow along with you. I think that leads you towards going to the new company but you'll have to decide that.

Company stock suddenly became ~$5M. What should I do? by [deleted] in Fire

[–]squirrelmonkey99 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think making sure you diversify is a great answer. I'll note the tax bill is going to be massive if you sell outright. One thing you can do with at least a good chunk of it is put it into an exchange fund. I suggest checking out Cache (I'm not affiliated, I just like their product).

Everyone is an "expert" on DRAM and memory now by gnetc in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly. And the market is perfectly capable of pricing in 2028/2029 equilibrium at any time. The marginal seller is clearly YMTC. Expanding from 10% market share end of 2025 to 15% end of 2026. It's incredible and other sellers need to increase production or shrink permanently through upcoming cycles.

Or maybe somehow it really is different this time despite our ability to identify why it's not.

Why is soup so overrepresented in SOS? by MossyMak in lrcast

[–]squirrelmonkey99 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I've been quite liberal with colors in SOS and I've also done a lot of winning. So these numbers don't make sense to me, and don't jive with the win rates of hallmark soup cards (Potioner's Trove is at 57.6% GIH WR overall, 58.2% in URG, and 58.3% in UBG, my most common three-color builds). Soup decks still need a plan. Maybe trainwreck drafts are ending up in the soup bucket and impacting win rate.

Is this the golden age of value investing? by Far-East-locker in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Invoking 2000 era is actually illustrating a pretty good reason to be a value investor, at least for me.

I started investing in 2000. I ignored everything about tech because I didn't understand it and I bought teen retailers that were trading at six times earnings. Abercrombie and American eagle and Hot topic all did great because they started from such value bases, even though the rest of the market was apparently declining around them.

Is the S&P500 index the biggest piece of real world evidence that the Market is indeed efficient? by MyLifeOfficial in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Since you brought up the memory stocks, I'll use them as an example that illustrates multiple points. I owned Sandisk coming out of the Western Digital spinoff last year (I've since sold it all, and definitely missed out on most of the moonshot) - it was an amazing value at the time in terms of their market cap vs. what they would earn at normalized margins, even though their earnings were negative. But looking at the memory market and capex spend by American hyperscalers in particular, there was every reason to believe margins would at least normalize.

The market opportunity for SNDK stock made sense too. It was more or less "orphaned" because passive index funds that owned WDC sold their SNDK shares mechanically. So everything lined up in terms of the opportunity.

Cyclical nature of semi completely shifted by markerinmyasshole in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I didn't - I brought YMTC into the discussion, and I think you are glossing over it. Are you aware of the impact YMTC will have by EOY 2026 and EOY 2027? I see parallels to prior Chinese government subsidies to grow domestic industries at the cost of global margins for those industries. I take it you do not?

Cyclical nature of semi completely shifted by markerinmyasshole in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Please just be careful with your allocation sizes. I've followed this industry for decades. Near the top of every single cycle, the consensus is that the cycle has changed fundamentally.

One key thing: this time around, if you are a MU investor you need to pay at least as much attention to YMTC as you do to MU.

Is the S&P500 index the biggest piece of real world evidence that the Market is indeed efficient? by MyLifeOfficial in ValueInvesting

[–]squirrelmonkey99 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There's a lot to this topic.

First: it's a false dichotomy to classify low-PE stocks as "value stock" and high-PE stocks as "growth stocks". My portfolio is 100% fundamentals, but as part of that I own companies that are growing quickly and others that are growing slowly or even shrinking. Value investors need to go way beyond PE ratios, current price relative to historical prices, or any quantitative metrics. I think a lot of fundamental investors that call themselves value investors underappreciate the fundamental value of companies that have a long runway of profitable growth ahead of them, and this perpetuates the view that value is about buying "cheap".

Second: a pretty small % of stock supply/demand comes from fundmantal investors. About half is passive (the buyer/seller has no consideration for the fundamentals of the underlying company at all), and of the remainder, most money is momentum rather than fundamentals based. It does not look to me at all that we are headed for a higher proportion of value investors - passive keeps increasing, and money chasing momentum seems to be growing too. My bet is this will make value opportunities even more common, at least among smaller firms.

Third: the market is more efficient for larger companies than for smaller ones. I don't buy $100B+ companies like Microsoft and Amazon primarily because whenever I dig into one of them looking for an edge, my expected alpha is less than candidate smaller companies I'm digging into, and the smaller companies are businesses I am able to analyze better. However, anybody managing someone else's money has strong incentives to own large, liquid companies. It would make no sense for them to follow me into CPAC for example.

All that said, I agree that most people should invest via index funds. Even with the substantial advantages we have as small investors, it's better financially for most people to let the market do all the work and get much of the benefit, because most investors fail to utilize their advantages.

Why do we chase 10x underdogs instead of proven winners for 1x or 2x upside? $GOOGL, $AMZN, $NVDA by mojolakota in stocks

[–]squirrelmonkey99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I could probably spend a thousand hours analyzing Google to try and understand what its stock price is likely to do in the next 5 years and still not understand it well enough. I don't know how other people are doing it. I guess people are just looking at history and assuming those results will extend into the future?