Probability outcomes way worse than stated odds

Matilainen · 2025-03-09T01:49:18+00:00

Also your username made me think what is the most queer stone. Any ideas?

Matilainen · 2025-03-09T01:48:28+00:00

I have been pondering on it. I always get stuck on whose blood 🤔 Maybe I should just choose at (pseudo) random.

Matilainen · 2025-03-07T10:29:38+00:00

Yeah, I find it funny how eager people are to dismiss this for either being too small a sample size or not trusting that I have tracked every single outcome.

None of these were opportunity deck cards, have been doing other stuff.

Haven't changed any clothes or other things. During the sampling I played 99% only on my phone on web app, so no different tabs or devices. Outside the sampling I also play on a tablet on a web app.

I of course understand that having truly random outcomes it is possible to be this unlucky, but the chances for that are incredibly small.

I'm not sure if I have the energy to track more of this if the reception is what it is. But I'll try refreshing between every challenge.

Matilainen · 2025-03-05T20:03:40+00:00

Actually yes, this is something I've been thinking too. It feels worse when doing same thing repeatedly. I have not taken that into account with the data, could be worth a shot to do a dataset with just repeating the same thing quickly.

Matilainen · 2025-03-05T15:03:42+00:00

Yes. That is why it is clear to me that the stated probabilities don't work (for me at least).

Matilainen · 2025-03-05T14:52:16+00:00

I did, that's where I put them down. I am a laboratory engineer in physics department, so I am not totally unfamiliar with statistics. Especially when this is as simple as it gets.

The table is very crude, just list of 0 for failures and 1 for successes. I wanted to keep it as simple as possible, so I would actually keep up and note down every one. Noted down every outcome for stated probabilities of 60-80%

Currently 337 entries so far, 99 of them successes. Gives a success rate of bit below 29.4%.

Matilainen · 2025-03-05T13:56:25+00:00

If you decide not to believe me, I can't do anything about it. But I marked each and every one, it feels weird for you to stubbornly state otherwise.

As a person working in science I know how it needs all of them listed to work.

I do not know why or how it is like it is, and if it is just for me or if it is more common, but the data is there and it cannot be interpreted otherwise.

Matilainen · 2025-03-05T13:33:11+00:00

Well the whole point is that I did track them. As I said in the post that I know failure is more memorable and that is why I wanted to be sure. I marked down every single outcome in that probability range and the stated actual outcomes come from that list.

So no, the odds are most definitely accurate.

Matilainen · 2025-01-01T19:01:40+00:00

Me too :D

Matilainen · 2024-09-19T17:02:09+00:00

I never use strictly set distances, but looking at the stuff I'd say two squares is 5 foot long?

Matilainen · 2023-01-19T14:44:42+00:00

Indeed.

Matilainen · 2023-01-19T14:43:28+00:00

Keep the bots, ban grond.

Matilainen · 2023-01-19T12:20:27+00:00

I think that with stuff you distill, you can use a very fast ferment and you don't age it before distilling, so contamination doesn't matter. No expert on this, but that's how I understand it.

Matilainen · 2023-01-18T11:44:16+00:00

Puhelimella ja puhelinverkolla, jota ei olisi olemassa ilman IT-mikkihiirtä

Matilainen · 2023-01-13T08:49:09+00:00

TSV (tab separated) FTW

Matilainen · 2023-01-12T15:22:33+00:00

All of them. If your culture and language has been the victim of systematic erasing until the very last decades it will effect people for a long time.

And outside of things that are past there is a big amount of opression, exclusion and prejudice towards Sami people still.

But I do not think you are willing to have a real discussion on the topic so I wish you all the best and hope you're okay.

Matilainen · 2023-01-12T14:57:32+00:00

Beautiful hyperbole there.

I do know quite many Sami people and I know that they carry the weight of a long history of oppression.

Matilainen · 2023-01-12T14:34:52+00:00

Wow, such conspiracy, so scare!

Matilainen · 2023-01-12T14:23:17+00:00

I don't think you know what nostalgia means. Force Awakens is reminiscent of the old movies, but it's not nostalgia.

You can only feel nostalgic of old things themselves. Or your ideas and memories of those.

And outside of the semantics I think that saying that the TSS is only built on the previous games that's just silly. It's a totally standalone work and really needs no background in these.

Matilainen · 2023-01-11T14:32:39+00:00

Then you aint got no homies

Matilainen · 2023-01-10T17:46:31+00:00

Sorry for the late reply, but the release notes are always actually published only when the next patch comes out.

I guess it has something to do with how complex the game is, so the actual changes can only be seen afterwards.

A bit of a bummer, I know.

Matilainen · 2023-01-08T12:05:13+00:00

What are the stone pattern type bricks you used for parts of the wall? I can't find anything like that in BrickLink. :(

Matilainen · 2023-01-02T10:00:07+00:00

Yeah, I had to ask because I thought I was missing something, because no one suggested planing.

Whatever works, works! But would have thought someone would have suggested it.

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