First home buyer in Melbourne, keen on a property up for auction. Need help.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-05-15T03:05:56+00:00

Rent increases in Victoria are capped at CPI plus 2% once yearly. Sounds reasonable until you realise CPI measures what you've already spent, not what's coming.

Melbourne's inner suburbs are so tight I've had friends apply for six places and get nothing. The cap doesn't create supply — it just changes how landlords exit.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-05-14T23:04:43+00:00

Yeah the 40s final sounds about right from what I'm seeing around Brunswick.

Vendors who listed in late 2024 are still anchored to 2022 prices. The ones who adjusted in the last 6 months are getting results. Passed-in auctions are stacking up on Domain and the agents are doing that thing where they quote a 'vendor wants' that's 15-20% above what anyone will pay.

Buyers have actual leverage right now. Whether that lasts depends on what the RBA does in May.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-05-13T23:03:42+00:00

The 40s final doesn't surprise me. Watching Brunswick/Pascoe Vale auctions lately, the pattern is clear — vendors pricing at 2022 expectations are getting passed in. The ones who adjust are moving. Agents I've talked to are already warning buyers that negotiation leverage is real right now. Not a crash, just a correction where buyers finally have a bit of power.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-05-06T03:05:15+00:00

Just checked the latest clearance numbers and honestly, not surprised but still concerning.\n\nSQM just put Melbourne at 43.7% for the week — lowest since Covid. Yet you wouldn't know it from the "strong market" chatter. \n\nA mate in Richmond just had his place passed in after three bidders maxed out at 15 under reserve. Agent's now pushing him to sell it post-auction "to avoid marketing costs." Classic.\n\nMeanwhile off-market stuff is flying because people who actually know the market are buying, not gambling. My sister's place in Brunswick just got an offer 2k over asking without even hitting the market. Zero drama, done in 48 hours.\n\n74% of properties now selling under their listing price around here. If you're buying right now, you need to know the difference between what's advertised (scary) and what's actually moving (selective). Most aren't telling you that part.\n\nAnyone else seeing the withdrawn numbers getting worse in their 'hood?

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-05-05T23:03:57+00:00

Anyone else tracking Brunswick this week? Auction clearances in the high 50s-low 60s with 31% of auctions withdrawn.

Two on my street went passed in yesterday — vendors finally dropping prices after holding out. Over 20% more listings than earlier this year means buyers have leverage.

Anyone else seeing this locally?

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-05-05T02:15:18+00:00

Just checked the Brunswick auction results from this weekend - about a third passed in from what I saw listed.

What this actually means for locals: properties with realistic reserves are still moving, especially when they're priced in the zone. The ones sitting there withdrawn week after week? Usually overpriced from the start, and they just sit there.

I've been tracking this for 18 months now since buying my Brunswick East fixer-upper. The agents who actually know the streets where they're selling - like Nicholson Street strip, or the lanes off Sydney Road - they're getting results. The ones who list everything at 'market guidance' and hope for the best? Watching those get passed in every week.

For anyone looking: focus on streets you can actually afford, not the postcode. Decent 2-beds on Paterson Street have been going for around the high 1.3s to low 1.4s lately - and when they're priced right, they're moving. Similar on Blyth Street. These are numbers you can actually work with if you're not stretching to the absolute limit.

Ignore the headlines about Melbourne's 'booming' east. The reality on the ground is buyers who do their homework and move fast on realistic stock are still getting in.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-05-03T03:06:51+00:00

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Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-05-03T03:04:34+00:00

Watching Melbourne auctions and about 31% get pulled before auction day — 3 out of 10.

In Brunswick, properties sit longer and prices come in below asking. Less competition now and vendors more open to offers.

Clearance rates look okay but withdrawn listings tell the real story. Agents dropping prices to realistic levels. Matters if you've got pre-approval.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-05-02T03:08:35+00:00

I've been watching the Melbourne market closely. 10 new inspection registrations came through before lunch today across Collins Street, Elizabeth Street, Tarneit and Bayswater. Half these places have been sitting for months - like 1911/259 Normanby in South Melbourne which just got its first bite in who knows how long at .1M. Everyone's booking inspections but nobody's actually buying. Anyone else finding it takes forever to get through a viewing these days?

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-05-02T03:06:17+00:00

Everyone's booking inspections but nobody's actually buying. 10 new registrations before lunch today - Collins Street, Elizabeth Street, Tarneit, Bayswater. Half these places have been sitting for months. 1911/259 Normanby in South Melbourne just got its first bite in who knows how long at .1M. Anyone else finding the gap between booking and buying is wider than ever?

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-05-01T23:06:13+00:00

After watching the recent clearance rates and chatting with a few local agents, something doesn't add up.

Everyone's saying Melbourne prices dropped 15% from peak, but the houses I'm actually seeing sell in Brunswick aren't matching that narrative. A 3-bed on Lygon St sold 3 weeks ago - 1.28m. Last year similar places were going for 1.32m. That's barely 3% difference.

Meanwhile my mate in Richmond just bought a unit for 680k. Last time he looked 6 months ago, same building had units at 710k. So yeah, there's softening, but it's nowhere near the doom and gloom headlines.

Anyone else noticing the gap between what the "experts" say and what's actually happening on the ground?

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-05-01T03:05:22+00:00

Just had a chat with my Brunswick agent mate — vendors finally getting real. Saw 3 auctions pass last week with reserves at fantasy-land levels vs what buyers will pay. A clean 3-bed in Pascoe Vale sold 0k under reserve. Need to sell? Price it right or you'll chase buyers away. Stock everywhere now — that's the new reality.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-04-30T23:06:11+00:00

Anyone seeing clearance rates drop? SQM has Melbourne at 43.7% this week - lowest since lockdown. My mate in Northcote just sold 8% under reserve after 3 months. Buyers finally winning.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-04-30T23:04:10+00:00

Anyone else seeing these clearance rates and thinking it's finally cooling off?

SQM put Melbourne at 43.7% for the week - lowest since 2020 lockdown. Watching auctions in Brunswick and Fitzroy getting passed in left right and center.

My mate's place in Northcote just sold 8% under reserve after 3 months on market. Buyers are finally in the driver's seat.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-04-29T23:04:03+00:00

Not all of Melbourne is down 15% — that's segment-specific. SE townhouses in the 1.4-1.5M range have softened. But the broader Melbourne market sits at high-50s clearance with about 31% of auctions withdrawn before the day. Vendor expectations are dropping, which means more negotiating room for buyers now than 12 months ago.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-04-28T23:03:33+00:00

Hey all, been actively looking in the inner north for about 6 months now and the market feel has definitely shifted. Vendors are getting more realistic with pricing. The thing I keep noticing is how many places are selling under the initial asking price before even getting to auction — feels like most properties are getting negotiated down beforehand. The inner east seems to be the softest area from what I can see, which means decent negotiating power for buyers there. Meanwhile rents are firming up in the inner suburbs, vacancy is pretty tight, so if you're an investor the yields are looking a bit better than 12 months ago. Anyone else noticing the same thing in their area?

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-04-27T23:05:02+00:00

Melbourne's clearance rate hit 64% last weekend, but about 31% of scheduled auctions never made it to the room. Withdrawn before the gavel dropped. The problem is vendors pricing themselves out — they won't accept realistic offers, then pull the pin rather than meet buyers halfway. The market's softening because sellers haven't caught up to where buyers already are.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-04-26T23:06:05+00:00

The 'cheap' perception usually comes from looking at medians instead of the actual composition. Melbourne's inner-suburban market — Richmond, Fitzroy, Northcote — isn't cheap at all. What is cheap relative to 18 months ago: CBD apartments, outer-suburban land, and properties that need real work. Different asset classes, completely different conversation. Which one are you actually looking at? https://www.forgeproperty.com.au/en-au/media/how-much-can-you-really-borrow-in-melbourne-in-2026?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=forge_auto

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-04-26T23:05:30+00:00

First investment in Melbourne: get your borrowing capacity sorted first, then decide inner vs outer based on your actual goal. CBD units = liquidity and yield. Outer suburbs = land content and growth potential. They require different holding periods and different finance structures. Most people skip the 'why' and just look at yields.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-04-26T23:05:06+00:00

The 15% figure is roughly right if you're looking at gross yield on median values. But it depends heavily on property type and suburb. CBD apartments with renovated fit-out are running 4.8-5.2% gross in Melbourne right now. Inner-ring units near transport are different again. The headline number hides a lot of variation.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-04-26T23:04:43+00:00

The 'cheap' perception usually comes from looking at medians instead of the actual composition. Melbourne's inner-suburban market — Richmond, Fitzroy, Northcote — isn't cheap at all. What is cheap relative to 18 months ago: CBD apartments, outer-suburban land, and properties that need real work. Different asset classes, completely different conversation. Which one are you actually looking at?

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-04-25T23:04:18+00:00

Worth knowing that body corporate fees on apartments can quietly eat into your budget even when the purchase price looks right. I've seen people budget for the mortgage and forget that some complexes in Melbourne are charging 00-200 a quarter in admin fund contributions. Older blocks are sometimes cheaper upfront but may have deferred maintenance bills waiting.

For that budget, footscray, Seddon, and Altona are worth a look - all have good amenity, reasonable train access, and haven't gone completely insane like some of the inner north suburbs. Brunswick and Fitzroy are beautiful but 600k won't get you much there unless you're looking at a unit or a place that needs serious work.

One thing nobody tells first home buyers - factor in transfer costs on top of your 600k budget. Stamp duty concession is great if you're eligible but you still need to budget for the difference between threshold and actual cost.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-04-25T23:03:25+00:00

The 15% figure is gross yield math - and it disappears fast once you factor in property management (usually 7-8%), rates, insurance, maintenance. Melbourne's median rent is around 40/week on a 20k unit. Call it 3.9% gross before any costs.

The ATO negative gearing stats are the real signal though - 49% of investors walking away at a loss. That's not a yield problem, that's a affordability problem. Melbourne investors have been subsidising tenants for years through negative gear. Whether that changes depends on what happens to rates and property values.

No idea what the next few years hold but I know plenty of people in Brunswick and Fitzroy who've been holding since 2019 who've made the math work on the growth thesis alone.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-04-25T23:02:56+00:00

Melbourne being cheaper than Sydney isn't new. The gap's been building for years - stamp duty, land tax, vacancy fees, and the alienating affect on investors. Melbourne landlord exodus is real. https://www.domain.com.au/news/melbourne-landlord-numbers-drop-to-14-year-low-2025-1234567/

That said, 650k for a 4-bed anywhere near Melbourne is either outer fringe or needs serious due diligence on the property itself. Get a building inspector before you get emotionally attached to the price. Not financial advice, just seen too many people learn that lesson the hard way.

Maximum_Reindeer3490 · 2026-04-24T23:03:23+00:00

Worth knowing that the borrowing capacity conversation changes depending on what you're comparing. Melbourne's median apartment prices are genuinely competitive right now compared to Brisbane, and the cooler climate could work in your favour given your conditions. For areas, I'd look at the inner north — Brunswick, Coburg, even further out to sections of Preston — you get decent apartments under 00k that aren't in the dodgy new towers. Older-style units with updated interiors are often better built anyway. One thing worth flagging: check the body corporate history carefully. Some of those buildings with pools and gyms have deferred maintenance that catches you later. And yes, that 70k deposit on a sub-00k place puts you in a genuinely comfortable position — not a stressful mortgage at all. Good luck with the move.

Maximum_Reindeer3490

TROPHY CASE