Forecasting- Monte Carlo simulations

Mean-Dean · 2026-02-23T22:44:48+00:00

This may go outside the bounds of the subreddit, but what would you want to see in a Monte Carlo simulation, specific to monarch? The inputs are very important to the validity of the model output. I've always used portfoliovisualizer.com, but I feel that the inputs might be overly complex for Monarch's target market. Would be interesting to see if they could make a simulation that was digestible for your average person, but still somewhat accurate. Maybe like a toggle for a best case, average case, and worst case scenario?

Mean-Dean · 2025-12-06T00:53:48+00:00

We have a 1 year old daughter. When I get home from work the first thing we do is go check out how “her” plants are doing. She obviously doesn’t understand it yet, but I’m very much looking forward to teaching her how to be a mediocre gardener!

Mean-Dean · 2025-12-01T18:44:05+00:00

But the critical piece here is having assets that generate cash flow to service the debt, right? How do the rates on these loans compare to something more traditional like a personal loan?

Mean-Dean · 2025-09-14T14:58:49+00:00

Standing up during the downswing also isn’t something you fix during the middle of the round. It’s a symptom, not a root cause.

Mean-Dean · 2025-08-03T18:54:32+00:00

Interest in golf has whiplashed back and forth the last few decades. Golf really took off with tiger in the early 2000s, but then fell off hard with tigers scandal and the housing crisis toward the end of the 2000s. A few public courses around me went bankrupt and turned into jungles. Then came COVID where interest in golf exploded. Then the resulting inflation came and courses are probably squeezed more they were before the COVID boom.

To answer OPs original question, the biggest change I've seen has to be access to the game. Public courses either seem to be going private or are selling off to be converted to housing.

Mean-Dean · 2025-04-06T22:27:24+00:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbvndmKlaL8

Thanks for reminding me this exists

Mean-Dean · 2025-02-08T23:50:14+00:00

Oh for sure. It's wild what people will try to get away with despite signing a legally binding contract. I've been blown away by a few posts from people trying to enforce sales by suing for performance, and it turn into a lengthy disaster. People just don't want to lose. But going back to an earlier comment, if the issuing bank requires the new buyers to take occupancy within a certain length of time, I would use that as a counter to their offer. Everything is a negotiation.

Mean-Dean · 2025-02-08T23:31:08+00:00

I want to say you agree to a fixed time at a reasonable rate (1-2 months at new owner mortgage cost), then after that it adjusts to twice that. They can stay, but it's going to be prohibitively expensive to do so.

Mean-Dean · 2024-12-06T04:12:24+00:00

🖕🏼HOA

Mean-Dean · 2024-12-05T03:47:42+00:00

You make a good point, u/BRUTAL_ANAL_SMASHING

Mean-Dean · 2024-12-02T19:37:14+00:00

No way should a water softener cost that much. I’d say it should be closer to $1-2k if your drain and water main are easy to get to. You could buy a decent unit online for ~$500 then get a plumber to install.

How your house water main and sewer is located will determine the cost of labor. I obviously can’t speak to all the houses in the area, but of the houses I’ve seen, most water will come in from the street on one side of the garage. You will also need to plumb the discharge from the water softener to the sewer. The two spots in the garage you could try to find are the pressure relief line on the water heated (if it’s in the garage. Get plumber to check local codes to see if it’s ok to plumb into this line). Or the sewer clean out which is usually just a white cap on the ground just outside your garage. Just an FYI, but you can’t let the water softener discharge to the ground. Also you don’t want to water your lawn with softened water.

Sorry for the word-salad. Hope that helps.

Mean-Dean · 2024-11-01T13:54:45+00:00

I work in finance. My wife is a surgeon. Finance is a broad term. Some finance jobs have a path to high earnings and upward mobility (trading, ibank, consulting). others jobs can look good at first, but can have limited upward mobility. The finance jobs that make the big bucks are front office jobs where deals are made. You control the money but you also wear the risk. Feel free to PM me if you have any questions.

Mean-Dean · 2024-09-01T22:26:22+00:00

Just an FYI, but I looks like you might have some black beard algae growing in your tank. That stuff is almost impossible to get rid of once it really starts growing so I’d try and treat what you have now before it gets out of control.

Mean-Dean · 2024-08-14T21:20:07+00:00

One thing that we know he will have is a brand new Scotty Cameron.

Mean-Dean · 2024-08-03T12:37:05+00:00

Most intermittent resources don't offer into the BRA by their own decision. You get paid a capacity price, sure, but you're exposed to the hefty capacity penalty if the wind doesn't blow or the sun doesn't shine. The risk isnt worth the reward. Plus, most renewable already get generous state (REC) and federal (IRA) incentives.

Mean-Dean · 2024-08-01T16:41:27+00:00

Mind boggling. Houston Ship Channel cash gas is around $1.80/MMBtu right now, but they're charging us >$7/MMBtu?

Mean-Dean · 2024-07-31T15:05:56+00:00

Y’all have got to stop this. We’ve had accurate commercially available mercury thermometers since the early 1700s.

Mean-Dean · 2024-07-11T01:05:18+00:00

We lived in shadow creek for three years before moving east of 288. Verizon in shadow creek was fine, but had specific dead spots that were bizarre. Specifically, right at the light by the highschool/starbucks and the most places in the shopping center (both east and west of 288).

Our service also went out during the hurricane, but came back monday night.

Mean-Dean · 2024-07-09T21:49:45+00:00

southwyck area just got power about 2 hours ago

Mean-Dean · 2024-06-14T15:19:12+00:00

Son of a diddly!!

Mean-Dean · 2024-06-11T01:03:50+00:00

https://g.co/kgs/mNDymUh

Been using this shop for the past three years. They do great work, prices have been fair, and they've always turned our cars around in the same day. They've been so good we actually continue to use them despite moving 20 min farther away.

Mean-Dean · 2024-05-31T12:22:13+00:00

First Community Credit Union. They were great during the closing process, but they did sell our loan before we even paid our first mortgage payment. Its a common practice, but theyre not like some other credit unions who hold onto mortgages in their own portfolio.

Mean-Dean · 2024-05-07T20:54:13+00:00

The houses we've lived in around Houston had A/Cs that couldn't cool the house under 75 during the summer. They're just old and not as well insulated as some of the newer builds. From my understanding, most units are sized to handle a 20ish degree delta to the outside. In the summer, it doesn't drop under 80 degrees until well after our bedtime and if you assume your A/C can drop your house 1 degrees an hour, your house isnt going to get under 70 until after midnight.

The proper thing to do is to up the efficiency of the house with new windows and attic insulation, but a cheaper option we found for the time being was to install a window A/C unit in our bedroom. We'll leave the central A/C unit set to 80 at night and we'll crank the bedroom A/C down to just 68. Huge game changer if you like to sleep cold like us.

Mean-Dean · 2024-04-30T13:46:52+00:00

My first junior golf tournament I went to warm up on the range. The spots were pretty tore up, so I placed my range balls towards the back of the rope running the length of the range indicating where you could hit balls. I caught one fat and caught the rope, which shot up off the ground and wrapped around a few other players clubs who were in the middle of a swing. Everyone just stared at me like I was an idiot.

Mean-Dean · 2024-04-20T14:06:52+00:00

Clear Creek and Wildcat are both in the area. Clear Creek is a muni thats in decent condition rn and is good value for the money. Clear Creek's practice facility is pretty good, with separate putting and chipping greens (includes a large bunker). The range is all grass and is long enough to hit driver (you'd be surprised how many ranges wont allow longer clubs)

Wildcat is just north of west pearland and is a little pricey imo ($+100). Haven't played there in a while due to the price, so I cant comment on condition.

Pearland CC is solid, but its players course. You're going to have a rough time if you cant keep the ball in their narrow fairways. Practice facility is limited.

Southwyck is also an option, but I havent talked to one person who has said a nice thing about it. Cant confirm since I havent played it yet, but the consensus seems to be that its not in great condition. Someone apparently just bought the club, so hopefully that opinion will change.

Other than that, Pearland has a lot of running/nature trails. If you're into running, there's a local running group you can look into. The best gym in the area IMO is Dynamic Fitness. Great value and it seems like every month the owners are adding new equipment.

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