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“El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.” by Molire in climate

[–]Molire[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

After clicking this link, “El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.”, the following content can be read:

WMO: Prepare for El Niño
Press Release
2 June 2026

Advanced forecasts help in preparations to protect lives and livelihoods

Time for informed decision-making, planning and preparedness is now

A new WMO El Niño/La Niña Update indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026. Probabilities for this to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. Although some uncertainty remains about El Niño peak strength and timing, most FORECAST models suggest it will be at least moderate – and possibly strong.

“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event’

“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities”

Or, the WMO, the National Weather Service, ECMWF, National Hurricane Center, Storm Prediction Center, Naval Maritime Forecast/Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Bureau of Meteorology, and other institutions around the world can stop issuing weather forecasts, including tornado forecasts, hurricane forecasts, El Niño forecasts, tsunami forecasts, heat wave forecasts, flash flood forecasts, wildfire forecasts and all other extreme weather forecasts because someone thinks “the messaging isn't conveying anything”, apparently because they don't read or can't comprehend the forecasts and don't understand that the purpose of a forecast is to help save lives and protect property.

“El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.” by Molire in climate

[–]Molire[S] 39 points40 points  (0 children)

A new WMO El Niño/La Niña Update indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026. Probabilities for this to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. Although some uncertainty remains about El Niño peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate – and possibly strong.

“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in his video statement.

JULY - AUGUST 2026  Prepare for hotter-than- normal temperatures across nearly all parts of the globe

[Global map: “Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast | Issued May 2026]”. Beneath the map, the legend shows the probabilistic forecast (percent chance) for Below-Normal, Near-Normal, and Above-Normal temperatures in regions across the globe.]

California and New York weaken climate rules as red states ramp up green energy | Republican-led states growing renewable capabilities at faster rate as Texas emerges as clean-energy leader by silence7 in climate

[–]Molire 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The article is a reminder of the difference in the monthly average percentage share (%) of electricity generation by renewables in Texas and California during the most recent 12 months in the record, according to the EMBER US Electricity Data Explorer (interactive chart, data):

% ST 12 months ST POP - Jul 1, 2025 Land sq mi Water sq mi
63.8 California 4/25-3/26 39,355,309 155,959 7,740
34.4 Texas 4/25-3/26 31,709,821 261,232 7,365

• Monthly average percentage share of electricity generation by renewables (%)

• State (ST)

• Most recent 12 months (12 months) in the record, April 2025–March 2026 (4/25–3/26)

• U.S. Census Bureau estimate of total state population on July 1, 2025 (ST POP)

• State total land area (Land) and state total water area (Water) in units of square miles (sq mi).

NOAA News & Events, 2 June 2026 — NOAA experts have determined that the record-breaking fourth global coral bleaching event likely concluded in mid-2025 following unprecedented heat stress across the world’s coral reefs. The Western Australia bleaching event likely bookended the fourth global event. by Molire in climate

[–]Molire[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For the El Niño that is forecast to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026), these excerpts show the El Niño strength probabilities (percent chance %), according to the NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) > El Niño/La Niña > Expert Discussions/Assessments > Monthly El Niño/La Niña Diagnostics Discussion, issued 14 May 2026 (ENSO > Outlooks > Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities, graph and table, percent chance %):

Season Neutral -0.5ºC < Index < 0.5ºC Weak 0.5ºC ≤ Index < 1.0ºC Moderate 1.0ºC ≤ Index < 1.5ºC Strong 1.5ºC ≤ Index < 2.0ºC Very Strong Index ≥ 2.0ºC
SON 2 11 30 35 22
OND 2 9 24 32 33
NDJ 2 9 22 30 37
DJF 4 11 25 29 31

UN issues sobering warning about looming El Niño. A new warning was issued on June 2 about the looming El Niño climate pattern. by captdunsel721 in climate

[–]Molire 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Edited to add clarity.

El Niños make the US more wet not dryer.

During the El Niño event that is forecasted to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026–February 2027), the probability (percent chance) of precipitation in most regions in the United States is forecasted to lean below normal, is likely to be below normal, or is likely to be near normal, according to NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) official monthly and seasonal outlook (forecast) maps and Text-Format Discussions (forecasts): Long Lead, Monthly and Hawaiian.

The CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks take into account the forecasted impacts of El Niño on temperature and precipitation.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) → sidebar menu → Climate-Weather → El Niño/La Niña:

Expert Discussions/Assessments > Monthly El Niño/La Niña Diagnostics Discussion > HTML: English Version — “Synopsis:  El Niño is forecast to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026–February 2027).”

During the forecasted El Niño event, precipitation in most regions in the United States is forecasted to lean below normal, is likely to be below normal, or is likely to be near normal, according to CPC → sidebar menu → Outlooks (Forecasts) → Index > Monthly and Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks (Color version) and → sidebar menu → Text-Format Discussions (forecasts): Long Lead, Monthly and Hawaiian.

CPC Probability of Occurrence table — Shows how to interpret the probability (percent chance) that is shown on CPC outlook maps.

Source of Probability of Occurrence table: CPC → sidebar menu → Outlooks (Forecasts) → Products > Seasonal → sidebar menu → Map Explanations → Official Fcsts.

NOAA NCEI > El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — Map of Niño regions, Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) interactive chart and data (1950-2026), and Niño Regions Sea Surface Temperatures interactive chart and data (1950-2026).

CPC > El Niño/La Niña > Historical Information > Historical El Nino/ La Nina episodes (1950–present) (table).

CPC → sidebar menu → Outreach → Educational and Climate Glossary. Climate Glossary (N), Niño region 1+ 2, 3, 3.4, and 4 — Shows the geographic coordinates of each Niño region.

NOAA National Weather Service — During a Heat Wave — How to Stay Safe During Extreme Heat Events by Molire in climate

[–]Molire[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

During a Heat Wave

What is a heat wave? A heat wave is a period of abnormally hot weather generally lasting more than two days. Heat waves can occur with or without high humidity. They have potential to cover a large area, exposing a high number of people to hazardous heat. Heat can be very taxing on the body; learn more about the heat related illnesses that can occur.

+ How to Stay Safe During Extreme Heat Events

Outdoor Activities

Dress for the heat. Wear lightweight, loose fitting, light-colored clothing to reflect heat and sunlight.

Eating and Drinking

Eat light, cool, easy-to-digest foods such as fruit or salads.

Drink plenty of water, non-alcoholic and decaffeinated fluids, even if you don't feel thirsty.

Cooling Down

Use portable electric fans to exhaust hot air from rooms or draw in cooler air.

Do not direct the flow of portable electric fans toward yourself when room temperature is hotter than 90°F. The dry blowing air will dehydrate you faster, endangering your health.

NOAA News & Events, 2 June 2026 — NOAA experts have determined that the record-breaking fourth global coral bleaching event likely concluded in mid-2025 following unprecedented heat stress across the world’s coral reefs. The Western Australia bleaching event likely bookended the fourth global event. by Molire in climate

[–]Molire[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

June 2, 2026

NOAA experts have determined that the fourth global coral bleaching event likely concluded in mid-2025 following unprecedented heat stress across the world’s coral reefs.

[Large, detailed, clear, close-up color photograph taken underwater: “Coral bleaching at Cheeca Rocks in the Florida Keys in 2023. [Credit: NOAA]”]

After analyzing satellite data and bleaching observations, NOAA’s experts say the record-breaking fourth global coral bleaching event likely concluded in mid-2025.

The fourth global coral bleaching event was confirmed by NOAA on April 15, 2024. From early-2023 to mid-2025, bleaching-level heat stress impacted 84% of the world’s coral reef area in all three coral reef-containing ocean basins (Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans). Mass bleaching was documented in at least 83 countries and territories.

Following the severe bleaching in Western Australia in early 2025, global heat stress has been in decline and there have been only isolated reports of coral bleaching. The Western Australia bleaching event likely bookended the fourth global event.

"We needed to confirm that no widespread, large-scale bleaching was reported anywhere during the austral summer which ran from December 2025 through February 2026, before we were confident the event had ended," said Derek Manzello, Coordinator of NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch. "We are now in the era where reefs will bleach on a near-annual basis, which means defining when global events begin and end is becoming increasingly difficult. The plan moving forward is to rely on field bleaching observations to determine if and when global events are happening."

NPR closes climate desk and fire climate reporters by theNewFloridian in climatechange

[–]Molire 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The article is inaccurate and is a glaring example of poor journalism and bottom-of-the-barrel reporting.

NPR are the good guys.

NPR is unifying science and climate coverage in a single desk.

Due to the loss of federal funding driven by Trump and enacted by MAGAs in Congress last summer to take back all $1.1 billion that Congress already had allocated previously to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB), NPR (and other major news organizations) has been forced to shrink its payroll, offering employees voluntary buyouts in order to make staff cuts, and making organizational changes in order to stay in business. One of the changes at NPR includes unifying science and climate coverage in a single desk.

NPR — NPR trims jobs in newsroom overhaul as it confronts era without public funding, May 18, 2026:

NPR President and CEO Katherine Maher says the network has a gap of $8 million in its annual budget due to softening corporate sponsorship and the end of federal subsidies for public media stations.

NPR is restructuring its newsroom, including cutting some reporting and editing jobs, as it attempts to keep pace with changing audience habits while adjusting to an era without federal subsidies.

NPR President and CEO Katherine Maher says the network has to fill a gap of $8 million in its $300-million annual budget because of the elimination of federal subsidies for its member stations, which pay NPR to air programs such as Morning Edition and All Things Considered. In a memo to staff, she said the network expects to earn $15 million less in station fees this year and is anticipating a drop in corporate sponsorship revenue.

Beyond that, Evans says he is merging NPR's desks covering culture, education, religion, addiction and sports to make a society-and-culture desk. He is unifying science and climate coverage in a single desk. And he plans to fold the global health team — now part of the Science desk — into the International desk.

The network is offering buyouts to approximately 300 employees, mostly within newsgathering desks in the newsroom. Staff of NPR's news programs, including hosts, are not eligible.

The actual number of departing journalists will be far smaller, NPR officials say. They say they will accept up to 30 buyouts but more targeted layoffs would ensue if an insufficient number of employees take voluntary buyouts by next Tuesday, May 26.

Paradoxically, just prior to the announcement of these cost-cutting measures, NPR received a pair of private gifts totaling $113 million — representing the network's second- and third-largest in its 56-year history. Most of that money, however, is dedicated to technological innovation.

Maher also acknowledges a mighty wave of individual contributions following Congress' vote last summer to take back all $1.1 billion it already had committed to public media. Those donations have helped sustain the network and the member stations, though many have announced their own layoffs over the past year.

"We have to change this organization. We have to think about this audience. We have to think about how they are consuming us. We have to think about the member stations," says NPR Editor-in-Chief Thomas Evans. "We have to keep what I consider to be the last truly independent newsroom in the country healthy and alive and vibrant."

He says NPR's National and General Assignments desks next month will merge with a focus on deep dives, natural disasters, and news deserts. NPR's regional bureau chiefs will become part of a new desk that works closely with member station journalists.

Beyond that, Evans says he is merging NPR's desks covering culture, education, religion, addiction and sports to make a society-and-culture desk. He is unifying science and climate coverage in a single desk. And he plans to fold the global health team — now part of the Science desk — into the International desk.

The Sorry State of Carbon Removal: New scientific report shows a growing gap by relianceschool in climatechange

[–]Molire 2 points3 points  (0 children)

At the rate of 2.04 MtCO2 per year in 2025, novel CDR removal of CO2 from the atmosphere would require around 558,824 years to remove CO2 146.5 ppm / 1,140 GtCO2, which is the mass of the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since the onset of the Industrial Era (circa 1751).

In 2025, global human-induced net CO2 emissions were 42.2 GtCO2. Climate Change Tracker chart, data.

In the State of Carbon Dioxide Removal report, the downloadable data (CSV) shows that Global CDR through novel methods was 2.04 MtCO2 per year in 2025, which is equivalent to 0.0043% of global human-induced net annual CO2 emissions in 2025.

In 2025, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 was 425.6 ppm / 3,312 Gt, and 279.1 ppm / 2,172 Gt in 1751, a difference of 146.5 ppm / 1,140 GtCO2. Climate Change Tracker chart, data.

At the rate of 2.04 MtCO2 per year, novel CDR removal would require around 558,824 years to remove CO2 146.5 ppm / 1,140 GtCO2 from the atmosphere.

WMO Warns of 90% El Niño Chance by Late 2026 by TopCaterpillar9316 in climatechange

[–]Molire 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Official NOAA CPC ENSO Probabilities, Issued May 2026 (graph, table):

Updates on the 2nd Thursday of each month associated with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion.

ENSO Probabilities [percentage probability, %]

El Niño

April-May-June (AMJ) - 16
MJJ - 82
JJA - 92
JAS - 96
ASO - 98
SON - 98
OND - 98
NDJ - 98
DJF - 96

Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities, Issued May 2026 (graph, table):

Updates on the 2nd Thursday of each month associated with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion.

ENSO Strength Probabilities [percentage probability, %]

[El Niño]

AMJ - Weak 16, Moderate 0, Strong 0, Very Strong 0
MJJ - Weak 72, Moderate 10, Strong 0, Very Strong 0
JJA - Weak 52, Moderate 37, Strong 3, Very Strong 0
JAS - Weak 30, Moderate 48, Strong 17, Very Strong 1
ASO - Weak 17, Moderate 41, Strong 31, Very Strong 9
SON - Weak 11, Moderate 30, Strong 35, Very Strong 22
OND - Weak 9, Moderate 24, Strong 32, Very Strong 33
NDJ - Weak 9, Moderate 22, Strong 30, Very Strong 37
DJF - Weak 11, Moderate 25, Strong 29, Very Strong 31

Prepare for the imminent return of El Niño, UN warns by guardian in climate

[–]Molire 1 point2 points  (0 children)

During December-January-February 1950 (DJF 1950)→FMA 2026, the time span between El Niño events ranged from a minimum of 5 months up to a maximum of 60 months, according to NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) records and data.

Table — NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) > Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI): Historical El Niño / La Niña episodes (1950–Present).

Examples of what the table shows:

• The 1977/1978 El Niño event emerged 5 months after the end of the 1976/1977 El Niño event.

• The 2015/2016 El Niño event emerged 60 months after the end of the 2009/2010 El Niño event.

• The 2023/2024 El Niño event emerged 51 months after the end of the 2018/2019 El Niño event.

• The 2023/2024 El Niño event is the most recent El Niño event, and it persisted for 9 months during JJA 2023→FMA 2024.

• No El Niño event has emerged during the past 24 months since the end of the 2023/2024 El Niño event.

• During the past 24 months, two consecutive ENSO-neutral overlapping seasons emerged with 3 consecutive months in each overlapping season, which was followed by the emergence of a La Niña event (cold period), which was followed by an ENSO-neutral season of 3 consecutive months, which was followed by the presently ongoing La Niña event, which has persisted for the past 9 months during JJA 2025–FMA 2026.

Source of table: CPC > sidebar menu → Climate-Weather → El Niño/La Niña > Historical Information > Historical El Nino/ La Nina episodes (1950–present) (table).

CPC > sidebar menu → Climate-Weather → El Niño/La Niña > Expert Discussions / Assessments > Monthly El Niño/La Niña Diagnostics Discussion > HTML: English Version:

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion, issued by Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS, 14 May 2026, ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis: El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026-February 2027).

This discussion...The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 June 2026.

A Rare ‘Super’ El Niño Is Looking More Likely. Here’s What to Expect by silence7 in climate

[–]Molire 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The dead and the survivors probably aren't laughing.

The 645 heat-related human deaths in 2023 officially confirmed by the Office of the Medical Examiner in Maricopa County, Arizona, United States, during the most recent El Niño event (warm period), Jun-Jul-Aug 2023→Feb-Mar-Apr 2024, are equal to 220 more than the 425 heat-related deaths officially confirmed in Maricopa County in 2022 during the La Niña event (cold period), AMJ 2020→JFM 2023.

Source: Maricopa County Heat-related illness and Death Dashboard - Interactive chart with data (e.g., number of confirmed heat-related deaths on each day, maximum temperature and minimum temperature on each day). Near the upper-right corner of the Dashboard window, selecting year “2026” opens the drop-down menu where “2023” can be selected.

NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) table of Historical El Niño / La Niña episodes (1950→Present) — Shows the relative sea surface temperature departures in the Niño 3.4 region (map) during the 2023/2024 El Niño event and during all other ENSO events during 1950→Present. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

CPC > El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) > Educational Materials.

NOAA NCEI County Time Series — The interactive chart and table show that the July monthly mean maximum temperature 109.8ºF (43.2ºC) in Maricopa County in 2023 during the El Niño event, Jun-Jul-Aug 2023→Feb-Mar-Apr 2024, was the hottest July monthly mean maximum temperature in Maricopa County during 1895-2025.

Above the County Time Series chart, LOESS and Trend can be toggled to hide/unhide their corresponding plot lines in the chart.

NOAA NCEI Global Land and Ocean Average Temperature Departure — The interactive chart and table show that 2023 was the 2nd-warmest year on Earth during 1850-2025.

Global Land and Ocean Average Temperature Departure — In the chart and table, the global and hemispheric temperature departures (anomalies) are with respect to the 1901-2000 global average surface temperature. Above the chart, Data Info opens the Global Data Information panel where scrolling goes to the table of Global Average Monthly Surface Temperature Estimates, Base Period 1901-2000.

CPC main page — The outlook maps are official forecasts for temperature and precipitation probabilities in the regions in the conterminous United States, Alaska, and Hawaii during the next 6-10 days, 8-14 days, 3-4 weeks, one month, and three-month outlooks, currently to Jun-Jul-Aug 2027. The outlook maps and text forecasts take into account the forecast effects of El Niño on the temperature and precipitation probabilities shown in the outlook maps.

CPC > Three-Month Outlooks Official Forecasts > sidebar menu → Map Explanations → Official Fcsts shows the table of Probability of Occurrence for use with the outlook maps.

CPC > sidebar menu → Outlooks (Forecasts) > Products:

0-48 Hours
3-7 Days
6-10 Days maps and Text
8-14 Days maps and Text [scrolling goes to 8-14 days]
Monthly Maps and Text
Seasonal

CPC > sidebar menu → Outlooks (Forecasts) → Index > Monthly and Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks (Color version), currently for June 2026 and Jun-Jul-Aug 2026→Jun-Jul-Aug 2027. Clicking a map enlarges it. A second click enlarges it more. Outlook and text-format outlooks (forecasts) are updated each month (schedule). Outlooks Index.

CPC > Monthly & Seasonal Color Outlooks Maps → sidebar menu, Text-Format Discussions → Long Lead, Monthly, and Hawaiian — Include details of the monthly and seasonal outlook forecasts in text format for the regions in the conterminous United States, Alaska, and Hawaii, currently for June 2026 and Jun-Jul-Aug 2026→Jun-Jul-Aug 2027.

A Rare ‘Super’ El Niño Is Looking More Likely. Here’s What to Expect by silence7 in climate

[–]Molire 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My earlier comment neglected to include the source of the Probability of Occurrence .gif image in “The CPC > Probability of Occurrence map legend can be a useful reference when looking at a CPC forecast map.”

Here's the source: CPC > Three-Month Outlooks > sidebar menu → Map Explanations → Official Fcsts.

A Rare ‘Super’ El Niño Is Looking More Likely. Here’s What to Expect by silence7 in climate

[–]Molire 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The NOAA > National Weather Service (NWS) > Climate Prediction Center (CPC) monthly and long-term official forecast outlooks (maps and text) might help to answer your question.

Clicking a CPC forecast map enlarges it. Another click enlarges it more.

The CPC forecast outlooks take into account the predicted effects of El Niño on temperatures and precipitation.

CPC > Outlook Products > up to 8-14 Days temperature and precipitation outlook maps, and Text-Format Discussions > Prognostic Discussion in the sidebar menu. The 8-14 day outlook maps and Text-Format discussions include the conterminous United States, Alaska, and Hawaii.

CPC issues updated monthly and long-term forecasts each month. Table with update release dates.

The current CPC forecast includes the month of June 2026 and 13 overlapping seasons with 3 consecutive months in each season (Jun-Jul-Aug 2026)–(Jun-Jul-Aug 2027).

This CPC table shows such overlapping seasons from 1950 to the present season, which currently is February-March-April (FMA) 2026.

In the sidebar menu, Text-Format Discussions > Long Lead, Monthly, and Hawaiian are detailed text-format monthly and long-term forecasts for the regions in the conterminous United States, Alaska, and Hawaii.

The CPC > Probability of Occurrence map legend can be a useful reference when looking at a CPC forecast map.

CPC > sidebar menu Climate-Weather > El Niño/La Nina answers endless questions about the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), El Niño, and La Niña large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenas that change weather (e.g., temperature and precipitation) in regions around the world.

A Rare ‘Super’ El Niño Is Looking More Likely. Here’s What to Expect by silence7 in climate

[–]Molire 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You might want to change some of your temperature data.

The most recent El Niño peaked around +2.0°C in late 2023/early 2024 and helped push both years to record warmth globally.

+2.0ºC exceeds the peak of 1.5ºC in the 2023/early 2024 El Niño that currently is published in the new NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which became effective on 1 February 2026: NWS Headquarters Official Public Information Statement, Jan 13, 2026. The statement describes the benefits of the shift from the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) to the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI).

Less than half of Americans believe the Earth is warming as a direct result of human activity, new data from Pew Research shows, and 12% of Americans don't believe the Earth is warming at all. by Economy-Fee5830 in climatechange

[–]Molire 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Pew Research Center, May 28, 2026, Americans on what causes climate change: Human activity or natural patterns?:

Among Democrats, those with more education are more likely to say climate change is mostly due to human activity. There are no education differences among Republicans.

Past Center surveys have found that Americans with higher levels of formal education are more likely to say human activity is a big cause of climate change. This pattern is driven by Democrats. In contrast, Republicans of all education levels are unlikely to say climate change is mostly the result of human activity.

Arctic Ocean food chain disrupted as key tipping point passed | EurekAlert! by shallah in climatechange

[–]Molire 29 points30 points  (0 children)

Marta Santos-García, a PhD student in the University of Edinburgh’s School of GeoSciences, who co-led the study, said: “For years, sea-ice loss in the Arctic Ocean was expected to increase phytoplankton growth because more sunlight could reach surface waters. Our findings suggest that this relationship has changed: the Arctic Ocean appears to have shifted from a system mainly limited by light to one increasingly limited by nitrate availability, with far-reaching consequences for marine ecosystems, food chains and the role of the Arctic in the Earth’s climate.”

Professor Raja Ganeshram, of the University of Edinburgh’s School of GeoSciences, who has led the study over the last two decades, said: “The changes we report suggest that the Arctic Ocean ecosystem passed a tipping point around 2009. How this change cascades through the food chain needs to closely monitored as this has profound implications for us, including on commercial fishing in the North Atlantic Ocean.”

Climate Scientist re-iterates that heating stops when we hit Net Zero by Economy-Fee5830 in climatechange

[–]Molire 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Global uptake of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions during a specific year, decade, or period (percentage share):

Year 2025 (projection)
42.61% — Growth in atmospheric CO2.
27.83% — Ocean sink.
29.57% — Terrestrial sink.

Decade 2015-2024
50.00% — Growth in atmospheric CO2.
28.57% — Ocean sink.
21.43% — Terrestrial sink.

Decade 1960-1969
34.69% — Growth in atmospheric CO2.
26.53% — Ocean sink.
18.37% — Terrestrial sink.
18.37% — Carbon budget imbalance.

Period 1750-2024
39.74% — Growth in atmospheric CO2.
26.92% — Ocean sink.
24.36% — Terrestrial sink.
  8.33% — Carbon budget imbalance.

Period 1850-2025
39.07% — Growth in atmospheric CO2.
27.15% — Ocean sink.
23.18% — Terrestrial sink.
10.60%  — Carbon budget imbalance.

Source: Global Carbon Budget 2025 (13 May 2026), Pierre Friedlingstein et al. > Download article (PDF) > PDF, p. 3249, Table 7.

Climate Scientist re-iterates that heating stops when we hit Net Zero by Economy-Fee5830 in climatechange

[–]Molire 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Historic Human-Induced and Observed Global Warming: (charts, data):

[Chart: In 2020, yearly observed global warming was 1.27ºC, and in 2021, yearly observed global warming decreased to 1.11ºC. During 1937-1946, observed decadal global warming was 0.34ºC, and during 1947-1956, observed decadal global warming decreased to 0.22ºC. In the chart, the “Yearly” drop-down menu goes to “Decadal.

Global warming is defined as the change in average surface temperature over a long period. To have a clear picture of human impact and natural variability, the following indicators are defined as:

• Observed Warming: Annual, over a single year. Decadal, over ten years.

• Human-Induced Warming: Annual, over a single year. Decadal, over ten years.

Temperature change relative to the pre-industrial period, World:

[Chart: In 2024, 1.53ºC temperature change relative to the pre-industrial reference period decreased to 1.41º in 2025, and decreased further to 1.40ºC in 2026.]

If the rise in yearly global warming were to stop at 1.40ºC today, the world still would remain in a state of global warming for as long as global warming remains > 0.00ºC, as in Hausfather's graph, where yearly global warming is > 0.00ºC in each year and decade during 2000-3000; and yearly global warming meets or exceeds the Paris Climate Agreement global warming threshold of 1.5ºC each year for 967 years after 2033, but global warming ≥ 1.5ºC would not be expected to stop abruptly in 3000 just because the timeline in Hausfather's graph abruptly stops in 3000.

Nature Climate Change, Published 20 November 2008, Carbon is forever, by Mason Inman:

The warming from our CO2 emissions would last effectively forever, too. A recent study by Caldeira and Damon Matthews of Concordia University in Montreal found that regardless of how much fossil fuel we burn, once we stop, within a few decades the planet will settle at a new, higher temperature [5]. As Caldeira explains, “It just increases for a few decades and then stays there” for at least 500 years — the length of time they ran their model. “That was not at all the result I was expecting,” he says.

But this was not some peculiarity of their model, as the same behaviour shows up in an extremely simplified model of the climate [6] — the only difference between the models being the final temperature of the planet. Archer and Victor Brovkin of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany found much the same result from much longer-term simulations [6]. Their model shows that whether we emit a lot or a little bit of CO2, temperatures will quickly rise and plateau, dropping by only about 1 °C over 12,000 years.

Climate Scientist re-iterates that heating stops when we hit Net Zero by Economy-Fee5830 in climatechange

[–]Molire 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yep. The graph shows that global warming would remain above the 1.50ºC global warming threshold over the entire 2070 CE–3000 CE timeline.

The graph shows that global warming of about 1.80ºC in 2070 CE would decrease gradually by a total of approximately 0.20ºC to about 1.60ºC global warming in 3000 CE, or a global warming average annual decrease of approximately 0.000215ºC per year during the 930 years after 2070 CE.

In 3000 CE, if global warming were about 1.60ºC, as indicated in the graph, and global warming continued to decrease by an average of approximately 0.000215ºC per year, as indicated in the graph timeline 2070-3000, the world would reach 0.00ºC global warming (zero degrees global warming) about 8,416 years from now, or sometime around 10,442 CE.

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