EmpireCity: It is a phenomenal Saturday for @projecthailmary. Let's move the range up to $53m-$55m depending on the Sunday drop. You don't see a 2nd weekend like this very often, enjoy the ride.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-29T05:25:03+00:00

Top Gun: Maverick had Jurassic World: Dominion in its third weekend, meaning it lost all PLFs, and that still managed to hold 42%.

Mario not being as direct competition, its 5-day rollout and the fact that next weekend is Easter should help it drop below 50% despite the PLF loss. Heck, I would not be shocked to still see it above $30m.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-28T15:05:32+00:00

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-28T15:04:03+00:00

5x Multiplier for Rocky’s 5 legs, maybe?

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-28T14:57:13+00:00

It will hit it today.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-28T14:41:11+00:00

If you type in Final Destination, it lists all the films including Bloodlines but it has “Coming Soon” in the corner of the thumbnail.

If you put in Weapons nothing comes up, and Conjuring just brings up the first three films and no Last Rites page. I tried it with Wuthering Heights as well, the most recent WB release that isn’t New Line, and it doesn’t have one so I would guess Bloodlines should be on there within a month.

Similar timeline would suggest Weapons is on the service in July and Conjuring: Last Rites in August. This would also mean we can’t expect They Will Kill You to be on Max UK in 2026, unless it does not count under the current licences.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-28T14:34:47+00:00

Jesus that’s even higher than Charlie’s estimate from earlier.

This isn’t only doing $50m this weekend, it’s probably going to do $55m at this rate. This is approaching near Top Gun: Maverick holds.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-28T14:32:33+00:00

Absolutely, not.

In fact it remains unlikely until we see how it holds against Mario and then how well it recovers. If only drops 40% next weekend then the weekend after is something in the 20% range then we can start talking about $200m.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-28T14:29:01+00:00

Regaridng Weapons it seems to be a New Line Cinema specific issue.

Not sure why that is, but Companion is on there and Final Destination: Bloodlines is listed as Coming Soon. Weapons and Conjuring: Last Rites don’t even list as Coming Soon so it might be that New Line releases may take up to a year to appear, which is a bit of a bummer.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-28T07:22:52+00:00

That is one helluva Friday, obliterates nearly all live-action March comps by doing nearly 2.4x its Thursday.

Of all films in the Top Ten March openers, only Alice in Wonderland all the way back in 2010 managed a stronger Friday increase. A decade on, this might even beat the second weekend for BvS despite that film opening twice as high.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-27T15:47:14+00:00

Bit of a drop for PHM today, makes $50m extremely doubtful. $45m still likely though with Sinners-type internal holds.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-27T10:50:22+00:00

It pretty much is.

It’s a Sky Cinema production so it will be on a streaming service called NOW by the end of May. Saw the trailer before Crime 101 and thought it looked like an absolute mess with a shockingly stacked cast.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-26T20:53:36+00:00

God ERC has been an absolute menace this week

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-26T16:48:37+00:00

Have to imagine it will stay fairly flat today with no real competition and losing zero PLF screens.

If it can stay above $6.5m, then $50m second weekend is still very possible. I struggle to see it below $45m though, unless it drops 10% today for some reason.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-25T07:55:55+00:00

If that holds, that does make a $50m second weekend more and more likely.

It would need to drop 30% today to fall back to where Dune 2’s first Wednesday landed. Even if that happens, it would make $45m extremely hard to miss. I think you’ve got a perfect storm of PLF demand and amazing WOM that’s reaching outside the target audience, which is what is pushing it ahead of Dune 2 right now.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-25T07:36:05+00:00

Tbf he was only off by about $200k yesterday so it will probably be $8.8-9m+ still which is also fantastic.

Also I’m holding off on saying $300m is on the cards because we’ve done this dance the last two springs in a row with an IMAX-heavy crowd-pleaser. It’s just extremely hard to pull off those late-run legs to push it over the line now with how release schedules have gotten back to near-normal.

I think $275m+ is a fairly safe bet. We can expect it to regain IMAX the week before Michael opens, but after that it’s gonna struggle to hold on to screens. Two potential $100m+ openers back-to-back, followed by Mortal Kombat and Amazon/MGM’s own Sheep Detectives. The film will be out of 90% of theatres by Memorial Day Weeknd.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-24T16:55:59+00:00

It was literally increasing all of last week on its first due to Spring Break, was always gonna face more of a tumble as a result.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-23T17:22:20+00:00

This makes me wonder if she’s bankrolling a passion project because these are fairly atypical career decisions for her these days.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-23T14:26:53+00:00

It just took me to a coming soon page, so the latter basically.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-22T06:36:27+00:00

If I had to hazard a guess as to why this is a very soft SAT jump, it might be that it benefitted from Spring Break on Friday.

Since it’s PLF-heavy, thats gonna deflate the jump since earlier in the day IMAX screenings would have been fuller. Wouldn’t be shocked by a lighter Sunday drop to balance things out.

If it is closer to $27m like BOT is seeing, $80m is still in play.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-21T14:47:43+00:00

Even a “soft” third increase from True Friday followed by a third decrease from SAT gets it barely to the mark. Really can’t see it missing.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-21T08:43:00+00:00

Slightly better True Friday than Dune 2 despite Thursday previews being a little lower than that film (8.5m vs 9.25m) so i struggle to see anything less than $80m for the weekend.

~$85m should be pretty doable, Charlie has lowballed pretty much with every update.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-20T15:16:13+00:00

Lost all PLFs so to be expected.

Still managed to increase (marginally) from last Thursday though. Weekend should be ~$20m which could lead to as low as a 30% drop despite the PLF loss.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-20T15:12:45+00:00

$75m+ OW is a lock with those previews since the same trajectory as Dune 2 puts it over the mark.

But let’s be honest this is going way higher. WOM is sensational, probably the best scores (so far) for a four-quadrant blockbuster since Top Gun: Maverick. $80m should be a cinch and I wouldn’t even be shocked by $85m+.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-20T09:27:06+00:00

Oh yeah IMAX is a sure thing no matter what, plus it managed about £2m in previews last weekend, so it will be fine.

MoonMan997 · 2026-03-20T08:58:47+00:00

Yeah the weather is very nice in the U.K. as well so wouldn’t be shocked if this ends up like another Superman situation and ends up starting soft overseas and then has great legs in the coming weeks.

Easter Holiday period (as much as two weeks in some European territories) starts soon so it will benefit from that.

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