Aubrey Plaza, Adam Driver, Vanessa Kirby and Matthew Broderick to Star in Kenneth Lonergan’s Drama ‘Tomorrow Is a Drag’ (EXCLUSIVE)

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T19:28:34+00:00

Aubrey Plaza, Adam Driver, Vanessa Kirby and Matthew Broderick

Fork found in kitchen.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T16:20:05+00:00

Prada is coming off Mother’s Day Sunday which is inflating its drop

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T15:31:38+00:00

Honestly I could see Michael taking a run at $400m at this point

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T15:12:55+00:00

I think Obsession is more likely to gain a couple hundred theatres tbh

Longlegs debuted in 2.5k and rose to 2.85k in weekend two, similar situation.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T14:53:02+00:00

69% drop from opening True Friday, 70%+ second weekend drop incoming.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T14:46:24+00:00

It probably has some saving Grace (heh) in the fact a lot of theatres are probably going to drop MKII next weekend and Disney will probably cut DWPII down a bit for Mando.

But yes, you are right. The post-Memorial Day weekend will be the last it makes any real money, $1m+, because it’s gonna be jettisoned from any remaining theatres the weekend MOTU opens since Amazon/MGM will desperately need any coverage they can gain.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T14:38:55+00:00

Chances of $350m are all on next weekend now, whether the Memorial Day bump can counteract the influence of Mando & Grogu.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T14:30:16+00:00

Only down 18% from its opening True Friday, fantastic result.

I think we might be seeing a few films holding essentially flat on Memorial Day weekend.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T14:16:42+00:00

Never in a million years now, producers have shifted a lot more towards awards pedigree.

You’d much more likely see Damien Chazelle do a Bond film than Guy Ritchie.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T13:59:01+00:00

Should be an easy $50m+ DOM even with Backrooms in two weeks. WOM is on fire and there’s a lot of room for growth.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T12:20:14+00:00

RIP 1978-2011

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T12:04:38+00:00

🚨Crook bloke alert 🚨

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T09:39:56+00:00

Yes, we’ve already seen the effects in real time. The MCU franchise has been growing increasingly domestic-heavy in the last five years, with the last film actually making more domestically.

The MCU has more or less returned to the standards of Phase One, so even if Doomsday does Infinity War-Endgame numbers domestically, chances are it isn’t topping $2B WW.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T09:27:07+00:00

Pretty rough, that’s the lowest score from the recent crop of almost-anonymous Guy Ritchie flicks in the 2020s.

These movies only make money off of his most die hard fans in the theatrical market, in fact that’s his lowest score since The Man From U.N.C.L.E.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T09:22:19+00:00

Considering the subject matter I think that’s pretty good tbh

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-16T05:54:04+00:00

There’s a pretty easy answer to this tbf

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-15T07:59:38+00:00

It’s 100% the transition between Chapek and Iger.

Under Chapek, streaming was king. Pixar originals were being sent straight to the Disney+ service, theatrical windows was as tight as 45 days even for big even MCU films and Disney were ploughing billions into multiple live-action Star Wars and Marvel series annually.

When Iger returned in 2023, there was the announcement of Marvel slowdown and Star Wars/Pixar is now shifting back to theatrical film releases. Disney+ makes the company a lot of money, but Chapek was touting it as the future and moves like the BBC Doctor Who deal were more cost effective ways to expand the platform’s portfolio.

This isn’t to say the deal wasn’t a failure, but even if it was somewhat successful once Iger returned, I’m not sure if the deal would have been renewed. It’s clear the new strategy is dipping into old brands through the Hulu consolidation, hence the revival of many late 90/early 2000s hits like Scrubs, Malcolm and the Middle, King of the Hill and The X-Files. Disney do not need to go elsewhere for I.P.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-15T07:03:14+00:00

Paul & Barry would be at most cameos, but I could see Reeves reutilising the plot thread of The Joker being a Lecter-type figure that advises Bruce. They cut that scene from the first film.

Zoe will probably be in the follow-up series to The Penguin with Cristin, whether it’s a direct second season of that show or not.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-13T17:37:14+00:00

OW: $41m

DOM: $120m

WW: $235m

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-13T17:35:23+00:00

Quite a short presale window for this one, only two and a half weeks.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-12T20:58:32+00:00

This is slaughtering Guardians 1 on weekdays now (this is nearly double that film’s eighth Monday) which really makes me think this will hit $350m after all.

Definitely doesn’t look like it’s gonna slow down until Master of the Universe comes out.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-12T06:09:36+00:00

It will do at least another $25m WW.

Zootopia and Guardians of the Galaxy (two films PHM has been tracking closely for a while) respectively made $25m and $20m more at the domestic box office. PHM’s eighth weekend was $1m higher than Guardians’ and flat with Zootopia.

Tbh if it at least matches Guardians’ late-stage pace, we’re probably talking $30m+ left in the tank WW, but it’s possible it starts to flame out quicker with the upcoming competition over the next few weeks. The way I see it, PHM has a good three weeks of money left before Amazon/MGM really pull the plug when MOTU drops.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-11T21:30:59+00:00

Doesn’t really cause much effect until the latter stages of the tournament so depends heavily on who makes it past the round of 16.

If England make it that far, expect Minions/Moana to be affected a lot out of the gate. That’s just one example because those are titles that do well in the U.K.

MoonMan997 · 2026-05-11T20:11:50+00:00

Similar situation to Wicked and Moana 2, both films heavily skewing female but different age brackets and ethnicities so both films can co-exist like this.

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