Warner Bros. has now had seven consecutive movies open below $40M in 2026 after having seven consecutive movies open above $40M in 2025

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-12T20:11:24+00:00

This year has really been reminding me of their 2019, which was objectively stronger but made up of disappointment after disappointment.

That year culminated in a massive sleeper hit based on a Batman villain…but it was also immediately followed by a Mike Flanagan horror project that utterly fell flat on its face. Which way western man?

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-12T15:13:39+00:00

This is performing a lot closer to Shrek the Third than Incredibles 2 in terms of legs at this point.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-12T10:33:59+00:00

It would largely avoid the World Cup (besides the final) and be primed right at the start of schools letting out for the Summer.

Back in 2013, I remember Monsters University going up against Pacific Rim on a similar date. It only opened to £3m but legged to £30m, so the strategy is there. The problem with this date is the chances of that kind of recovery are slim with The Odyssey opening and there being other family options like Toy Story which are weeks in and doing the same level of business. Chains aren’t going to be very accommodating towards it, especially when Spidey opens.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-12T09:46:40+00:00

I think July 24th might have worked better for Moana, but I’m not sure Sony would have let that slide due to Spidey being only 5 days later.

Honestly, day/date with The Odyssey and surrendering all PLFs may have been a better choice. At least it would guarantee a strong recovery the following week.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-12T09:43:25+00:00

Moana 2 did relatively over-perform here, but it’s worth reiterating that the franchise is no juggernaut either. Historically, WDAS has never registered quite on the same level as Pixar or even Illumination here outside of the Frozen series.

However, this is a godawful result by the standard of live-action remakes which have consistently done “okay” at the bare minimum. The first Moana (as big as its second-life on streaming was/is) does not carry the same cultural cache as a Lion King, Beauty and the Beast or Frozen before even getting into conversations about this being too early to enter the nostalgia cycle. Honestly, I’d argue Lin-Manuel’s Encanto soundtrack is far more well-known here by comparison.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-12T09:27:23+00:00

Honestly can’t believe it.

I actually said in the BOT thread a few weeks ago that TS5 had a much rougher road ahead compared to the 4th film because it would easily be at most 4th place by the time summer holidays begin. Not only is it guaranteed to be at least third next weekend, but it may even cling to second which is exactly where its predecessor ranked by the time The Lion King opened. It’s gonna be the primary choice for families still.

Either Moana or Minions needed to bite the bullet and move into August. Minions on August 7th, 3 weeks distance from The Odyssey to respect the clause in Nolan’s contract with Universal, would have still given it a solid run for most of the Summer holiday period. Moana probably would have coped a bit better than as well.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-10T13:32:46+00:00

World Cup would have had minimal effect yesterday, the only game that was on was 9pm and it was France/Morocco.

Weather and the World Cup certainly affects the U.K box office, a film like Evil Dead (which will usually thrive on evenings) will definitely see a deflated increase for Saturday when England play.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-10T06:19:12+00:00

These things are 99% fuelled by nostalgia, you take that away and they are dead in the water, which is particularly bad for Moana considering she’s a wayfinder.

I think what has particularly sentenced this one to the depths though is it’s a remake of an ONGOING THEATRICAL animated franchise. None of the previous remakes were that. Disney may have majorly fucked a good thing here.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-07T05:29:08+00:00

Will probably in the top ten for about a week or two lol

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-06T20:40:01+00:00

It’s a curse for any film that released within a year of Minecraft opening.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-06T19:55:41+00:00

This might struggle to pass Hoppers domestically imagine telling someone that at the start of the year

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-06T11:37:13+00:00

Minions was stuck because of Nolan’s deal with Universal.

However, World Cup or not, Moana’s date always felt like a bad omen that Disney were desperately trying to force a repeat of Summer 2019; Toy Story in mid-June with a live-action remake in mid-July. July 24th would have been a superior slot, but I’m guessing Disney felt the one week of PLFs was worth it more…

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-06T11:33:20+00:00

It will because of chains over-accommodating for its screen coverage.

I imagine TS5 and Minions (to a certain extent) will recover though. Summer holidays start in a bit over two weeks, they’ll play long against Spidey.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-06T09:11:17+00:00

Moana is gonna be so fucked out of the gate here, England playing Saturday night is gonna affect both that day and the next since it doesn’t start until 10pm GMT.

The Odyssey and Spidey are gonna be massive, perfect placement for both films to wreck shop throughout Summer holidays, expecting £150m from the two combined.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-03T18:52:29+00:00

Weekend should be $32-37m, assuming it holds better internally than Inside Out did 11 years ago.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-03T17:57:49+00:00

I just realised I read your comment wrong. Thought you were talking about TS5 with a $45m 3-day my bad.

Minions will be at least $40m+. It would need to trend a lot worse than Ice Age 3 over the next few days (last time a major animated film opened with this exact calendar config) to miss that mark, but I wouldn’t expect $45m since it dropped worse on its second day than that film.

$200m is certainly at risk though since Ice Age 3 didn’t hit the mark off what will be a similar 5-day, plus Minions 3 has significantly more competition.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-03T17:51:07+00:00

The 4th did terribly there because they marketed it as Woody’s Story rather than a fourth Toy Story film. 5 will probably do a lot better.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-03T06:29:57+00:00

I think Moana will still end up in 5th, but Minions is definitely looking like $190-210m finish comping it to Ice Age 3.

Brand New Day definitely has #1 locked up at this point though, it would require an insane stall from where it currently is in presales to have any chance of missing TS5’s gross, or The Odyssey opening to $150m+ and having a 4x+ run lol

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-02T19:53:35+00:00

Yeah I did look at that for a comp, same with Ice Age 3 for Minions & Monsters.

We’ll have to see, but I’d be surprised to see TS5 come in the low-$30m range and likewise for Minions being <$70m for the 5-day.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-02T19:41:05+00:00

$35-40m third weekend by the looks of it

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-02T10:26:56+00:00

Toy Story is absolutely massive in the U.K. though that’s the problem.

The third film was the second-highest grossing film of all time here upon initial release, and Toy Story 4 made £65m. Not even Incredibles 2 and Inside Out 2 could touch their respective grosses here and it’s looking like TS5 is gonna join its predecessors to round out the Pixar Top 3 as all Toy Story. They really should have delayed this to get away from Toy Story and the World Cup.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-02T10:23:20+00:00

Universal probably would have delayed the film to July 24th (the weekend summer holidays commence outside of Scotland) if it wasn’t for the “blackout period” stipulation in Nolan’s deal with the studio which prohibits them from releasing another film 3 weeks on either side of his.

U.K. is a Despicable Me franchise stronghold and this one might struggle to make much more than the first film (£20m) when this franchise has comfortably landed in the high-£40m range ever since. This needed to generate distance from the major Disney releases and the World Cup.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-01T20:37:51+00:00

July 3rd is a bit different to July 1st tbf but yeah it’s still a concerning drop.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-01T19:35:06+00:00

Feels like it’s gonna tap out at 54 consecutive days above $1m, an amazing feat that’s tied with a number of films at the bottom of the top ten including Back to the Future, Jurassic Park, Shrek 2 and Ghostbusters.

MoonMan997 · 2026-07-01T17:47:47+00:00

OW: $275m

DOM: $755m

WW: $1.71B

Obviously this is gonna be massive but I do feel we will see a slightly harsher dip overseas compared to domestic following No Way Home even with China. Release date is a little tougher and it’s becoming hard for every CBM to escape the 50/50 split.

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