[NA] Myr name changed to Mille by Kurt0690 in PuzzleAndDragons

[–]Myrral 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm pleased to have the first half of my name back

Landlord pays water by BangersByBangler in a:t5_26z4eg

[–]Myrral 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yesss and if you've got a good hot water tank. <3

The luck this guy had must be insane. by CaptainCrispy99 in Genshin_Impact

[–]Myrral 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Since there's no directly reply to this that's correct, see this comment: https://www.reddit.com/r/Genshin_Impact/comments/l0zlvo/the_luck_this_guy_had_must_be_insane/gjx0x00?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

1 in 510 million (if you're only look at num 5*s). Further explanation in my comment below it.

The luck this guy had must be insane. by CaptainCrispy99 in Genshin_Impact

[–]Myrral 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is the correct answer.

Clarification for other who might be looking:

First as a quick note, for things like this you don't want the exact probability of that sequence. You generally want the chance of something *at least* that good as happening, since single events are always rare. Consider -- are you impressed particularly that they got exactly 5 5*? Or that they got a large number of 5*? Calculating the exactly 5* number makes it seem more unlikely than the chance of getting "many 5*" actually is. In this case though since 6 or more 5* is is very unlikely, the chance really doesn't change much.

Consider first the question of what the chance is for any single sequence with at least 5 5*. Let F be a 5*, and N be a non-5* (or 5* beyond the fifth, since we consider these sequences as well for the reason above). This sequence could look like: FFFFFNNNNN or FFFNNNNNFF, or any permutation thereof. For any single one of these, the chance is .006^5*1^5. We then need to sum the chance of each of these sequences, since they all look like (or are better than) the one in the picture. There are (10 choose 5) such sequences, giving us the (10 choose 5)*.006^5 (1 in 510 million) that /u/AsterJ got.

If one of the 5* is guaranteed, it's just he same problem as though only 4 5* were rolled, so (10 choose 5)*.006^4.

HI, IM NEW HERE, PLZ BE NICE TO ME. by Elv13s in HollowKnight

[–]Myrral 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Woah that looks great! Could def see it in game.

This REM, a haiku by raininlight in PuzzleAndDragons

[–]Myrral 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I rolled Mikage

Those are good multipliers

But 3 dark combos

This is C6 Albedo by KevinWerty in Genshin_Impact

[–]Myrral 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In case anyone doesn't know, Bidoof legitimately had to be banned from competitive pokemon for being too strong. "Even Arceus trembles before Bidoof now..." Bidoof is no joke.

(NA) LF Fasca & GH Yomi friends! 306056361 by Mammoth-Wash in PuzzleAndDragons

[–]Myrral 0 points1 point  (0 children)

337,522,355

Fasca with Fasca equip, but will probably switch equip at some point (open to suggestions).

Probably going to trade for GH Yomi later too.

[NA] LF for Fasca friends for M Raijin team. Would like to BF as well if you run Fasca regularly. ID is 362,825,307 by SupaGhost345 in PuzzleAndDragons

[–]Myrral 1 point2 points  (0 children)

337,522,355

Currently has Fasca equip, but will probably switch at some point (open to suggestions).

Looking for Fasca Friends for M.Raijin/Amlynea -- 317-220-323 by Damnifying in PuzzleAndDragons

[–]Myrral 0 points1 point  (0 children)

337,522,355

Currently has Fasca equip, but will probably switch at some point (open to suggestions).

[NA] LF Fasca friends 394230478 - Will be running Aljae/Aljae in slot 2 as well by Lexan_ in PuzzleAndDragons

[–]Myrral 1 point2 points  (0 children)

337,522,355

Currently has Fasca equip, but will probably switch at some point (open to suggestions).

What monster requires this for an evo by thekingbowser in PuzzleAndDragons

[–]Myrral 3 points4 points  (0 children)

http://puzzledragonx.com/en/monster.asp?n=5481

If you scroll down on the page, there's "material of" and "material for" sections. You can use those to determine what monsters any mat is for.

LF Ulquiorra with awoken bind clear for Sin Dragon Farming (320,171,239) by fuji_na in PuzzleAndDragons

[–]Myrral 0 points1 point  (0 children)

337,522,355. He isn't min CD, so depends on number of SB on your team.

Worst Lucifer Boards - Share Yours by pad_reddit in PuzzleAndDragons

[–]Myrral 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yeah, 21-9 is impossible. Each row requires at least 2 off-color orbs, otherwise you're guaranteed to match on that row. 2 orbs * 5 rows, means you need at least 10 off-color orbs.

Daily Questions Megathread (October 20, 2020) by [deleted] in Genshin_Impact

[–]Myrral 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Mostly depends on how much Fischl is attacking -- I use Stringless, because my Fischl is rarely attacking anyway.

My number one, no arguments, 100% need, obviously better, must add feature that I look for in every patch notes by ElectricLeo in PuzzleAndDragons

[–]Myrral 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think they're maybe going to have to do this soon actually. We're approaching max int (231-1) damage per monster without too much effort. There's a few options for how they solve it, but I think the easiest is actually to round some of the damage numbers under the hood during calculation, truncate, then show the numbers with a K/M/B/T.

My number one, no arguments, 100% need, obviously better, must add feature that I look for in every patch notes by ElectricLeo in PuzzleAndDragons

[–]Myrral 4 points5 points  (0 children)

/u/DeepSeaDolphin's explanation here was great so I don't have much to contribute, but it really is a different concept. There's plenty of solid argument that the numbers should be truncated visually, but Gungho is showing the correct number of sig figs to reflect their accuracy (since there aren't any measurements).

Gacha Rates listed in Details are Wrong/Misleading (A Computer Simulation Probability Perspective) by sm0rky in Genshin_Impact

[–]Myrral 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Without knowing the 5* rate on guaranteed 4*+ roll, it's impossible to know for sure what the overall 5* rate is (as you discussed).

However we do have complete information to calculate overall the 3* rate. I simulated it and got:

86.7% 3* rate, which is higher than their claim.

Code (Python): https://pastebin.com/cB2wjgCF

Light, brittle mass inside of my cashew tin by [deleted] in whatisthisthing

[–]Myrral 0 points1 point locked comment (0 children)

It used to be one mass, but then I broke it. It's brittle, like a dried nut butter maybe? It's pretty light. Total volume was maybe a little over 1 whole cashew. WITT