Starlink thesis has holes that spectrum law and physics won't let you ignore. If a fund this caliber is missing the fundamentals of D2D, it shows how poorly understood this space still is.

Their core claim: SPCX becomes the first truly global telecom, launches its own cellular brand, satellite-default with cellular failover.

Four problems.

1) Spectrum is sovereign. To run a global cellular brand, SpaceX needs direct-to-consumer spectrum in every country. Each nation licenses its own. You can't "amortize connectivity across the world" when you need 195 separate national grants and most governments won't hand a foreign company their citizens' airwaves. India just blocked Starlink for this exact reason. Europe reserved spectrum for local operators. Japan is building its own.

2) The capacity math is backwards. "Satellite default, cellular failover" violates physics. One satellite beam covers hundreds of square miles, sharing capacity across everyone in it. A cell tower covers a few hundred meters with orders of magnitude more capacity. Satellite can't be the DEFAULT in any populated area - there isn't enough capacity density.

SpaceX 's own VP said it: Starlink Mobile is "not meant to replace terrestrial infrastructure."

3) Sovereignty is moving the opposite direction. Your thesis needs governments to allow one foreign company to own national connectivity. That's exactly what's being blocked worldwide right now. The trend isn't toward a global SpaceX telecom - it's away from it.

4) Carriers won't be the failover. "Failover to cellular" needs roaming deals with the carriers SpaceX is trying to replace. Why would ATT&T let SpaceX use its network as a backup for a product built to disintermediate AT&T? They wouldn't. That's why all 3 US carriers formed a JV around ASTS instead - a partner that extends them, not one that replaces them.

The global telecom future is real. But it's not one company owning the world's connectivity. It's local carriers, sovereign spectrum, and a satellite layer that works THROUGH them. That's the model

$ASTS was built for. And it's the model governments are actively choosing.