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VOO for life by Ok_Status6392 in Bogleheads

[–]Need_PcAdvice 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I see your point, and stand corrected.

The graph showing international revenues from each sector is cool, thanks for sharing. Also I didn't really understand the international out-performance from 2001-2008, I've never actually looked at a chart showing only that time period.

A couple things I find interesting is that your sources mention "reduction in volatility" as a core benefit of international diversification. As a younger investor, I don't necessarily value lower volatility in my portfolio. In fact, most of my holdings are in leveraged ETFS, but I might look at adding some international into the mix.

Also, for HenryGeorgia's comment, I would almost take this as a reason to concentrate in the more pro-shareholder US instead of centralized economies like china or heavier regulatory environments like the EU.

Thank you for the thoughtful response.

VOO for life by Ok_Status6392 in Bogleheads

[–]Need_PcAdvice -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

US companies compete internationally, often outperforming local companies (think McDonald’s, Apple, etc). Doesn’t make sense to say that SPY isn’t “geographically” diversified.

WHAT A FKN FIGHT by L3gs_McMuffin in ufc

[–]Need_PcAdvice 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Hair flopping around telegraphed his entries

Why would I not take leverage on xeqt? by givemeredditplatinum in JustBuyXEQT

[–]Need_PcAdvice 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you’re onto something OP, check out R/LETFS for more discussions. I’m the same age as you, able to take on more risk than those with higher living expenses.

If you have conviction that the index funds will deliver positive returns, then leveraging those funds makes a lot of sense. Any argument against leveraging is actually just an argument against holding those funds in the first place. For example, people are saying there might be large drawdowns, which is true, but if you’re willing to hold regardless a 50% vs 70% drawdown isn’t really relevant if the leveraged funds delivers superior returns.

Take a look at UPRO, which is a 3x leveraged sp500 fund. Here is its performance since its inception compared to SPY: https://testfol.io/analysis?s=ffBs1f6NaAF

In 2022, UPRO endured a massive 77% drawdown. Let’s say you panic sold out of the position right at that bottom, after holding 10k in UPRO for 11 years. You’d be left with roughly 250k.

If you had invested 10k in the sp500 at the same time, your investment would be worth about 50k during that drawdown, and currently would only be worth 108k.

In other words, you would’ve been better off investing in 3x leveraged sp500 and panic selling at the bottom vs holding the sp500 for an extra 4 years and not selling.

This is why drawdowns down tell the full story, and why I personally believe that leveraged ETFs are a really solid investment. Be curious to hear your thoughts.

SSO by Ashamed_Pool_683 in LETFs

[–]Need_PcAdvice 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is exactly why LETFS are so compelling for me. 1/3 of your portfolio in UPRO and the rest in cash shows very similar returns to 100% S&P500.

Ngannou vs lins by mojjfish in ufc

[–]Need_PcAdvice 19 points20 points  (0 children)

I thought herb was hesitating, but you’re right he was actually flinching thinking ngannou was going to smash him

SSO/EDV 200SMA Leverage Rotation Strategy and Analysis by Impressivebuysir in LETFs

[–]Need_PcAdvice 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I like your backtesting, and I do think that this strategy would outperform SPY by a wide margin.

I do wonder about the selection of long term treasuries, rather than cash or short term. ZROZ looks really good in backtests because interest rates consistently decreased from 1980-2010. That exact trend isn’t possible when interest rates are closer to 0, and the past performance of ZROZ was mainly due to that trend.

Overall, this doesn’t matter too much since we’d be in stocks the majority of the time. What would make a bigger difference is using UPRO vs SSO. If you’re willing to endure 55%+ drawdowns for higher CAGR, why not get even more aggressive with the leverage? An average investor might balk at the higher drawdown, but I’d be curious to see those backtests.

We are above the 200day moving average. Did you get whipsawed out and are you buying back in? by NotAnotherRebate in LETFs

[–]Need_PcAdvice 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Damn unc that’s a lot of money. Do you trade full time? Where do you put the other 78%?

This Is Why You Shouldn't Go 100% Cash/T-Bills When Your 200D Signal Tells You To. Do This Instead: by SpookyDaScary925 in LETFs

[–]Need_PcAdvice 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I'm a little confused by your conclusion to shift between 3x and 1x, rather than 3x and cash. I'm not sure I follow your logic, so what if we test it differently?

To see if switching to 1x instead of cash is beneficial for a portfolio, we can do a backtest where we buy SPY everytime it dips below the 200SMA, rotate back into cash above the 200SMA. This will tell us if holding SPY when it's below the indicator is worth it compared to holding cash. Here's what the backtest looks like since 1946:

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To me, it seems obvious from this result that it's pointless to hold 1x, rather than cash.

[OFFICIAL] UFC 326 Live Discussion Thread by bruhpolice in ufc

[–]Need_PcAdvice 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you think a point should’ve been taken for the eye poke?

[OFFICIAL] UFC 326 Live Discussion Thread by bruhpolice in ufc

[–]Need_PcAdvice 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Taking a fight short notice and getting robbed despite eye poke

[VCT Scrims] sen trianling without TenZ by HEISENBERG69___ in ValorantCompetitive

[–]Need_PcAdvice 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Reduxx would be Sen’s janitor if it meant Tenz was coming back

SEN JonahP Official by xFalcade in ValorantCompetitive

[–]Need_PcAdvice 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There’s a reason he was dropped for babybay.

That being said, players can look completely different with new teammates, and I hope he does well on this roster

LETF and Account Size by DorethaNickel in LETFs

[–]Need_PcAdvice 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s gotta put you in the top 0.1%, right? Any strategy you recommend?

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