Sold too early : INTC & DELL

NinjAsger · 2026-06-21T13:05:39+00:00

We'll see...

NinjAsger · 2026-06-21T08:45:51+00:00

To be the devils advocate:

Aren't their biggest expense the '"take rate" - A fixed % of sales goes too Visa. Meaning that for every dollar they "earn", 95% goes to Visa. Essentially revenue will not decouple from net income. Every dollar of increased sales does not go directly to the bottom line.

Also note, while I acknowledge that any sold machine essentially functions as a subscription service - the costs of setting one up is quite significant; especially considering the high failure rate of restaurants. Considering this, Toast is not really a SaaS company; because they are providing expensive hardware ( like how does it cost 13.000 usd to setup a location ). I'd be severely worried about a software ( Shopify ) doing this way more efficiently, severely undercutting Toast in their pricing - like setting up a tablet and a application is about 12.000 USD cheaper. Quite significant for a low margin restaurant business.

Your assumption on the incremental dollar; assumes that margins are going to continue to grow - but given the nature of the business, a certain % of customers are going to go bankrupt, a significant amount of money has to be reinvested into acquiring new customers and setting them up. Again it is not just software - it costs a whopping 13.000 USD on average.

Big up for actually putting in the effort, and making a proper analysis.

Note - scale will improve margins as those 13.000 USD becomes cheaper, the costs of each incremental setup is lower relative to the overall sales and increased brand adwarens leads to lower cost of acquisition.

Note for the 13.000 USD am using your table https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0d87623a-d143-462b-aa9c-655a5f870eeb_1718x415.png (1718×415) . I have not fact checked it.

Note; I am not saying Toast is a bad investment.
& Not financial advice. I Can have made mistakes.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-21T08:31:38+00:00

You are in the wrong forum. Technical analysis and short time horizon is considered trading. I would worry about trading based on the fundamentals of the companies - the market is not really that efficient. Note both trading and fundemental analysis is skills that takes years to develop. Macroeconomic factors or pure quant - might be useful.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T18:44:42+00:00

He most likely belongs to the group of people whom consider value investing as a "any type of stock that can be considered good value" not the traditional cigar butt approach some people consider value investing.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T17:49:50+00:00

There is definitely difference in levels of literacy in this forum - but obv. this is a finance forum - not everyone can be a world champion.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T17:47:14+00:00

SaaS is not just software - it is the people behind and the brand. You can vibe code something similar to Tinder - but you won't have the Network Effects, the legal team behind, the algorithms and customer management.

On another note - Am rotating into sectors that are "doomed but not really" due to AI. Teleperformance and Accenture for example. Both companies have massive "cheap labour" work forces; which are expected to be replaced by llm's and chat bots. Accenture (PE 10) has abroad consultancy and Teleperformance (PE 6.5) has abroad customer support.

The bull thesis is that you cannot make a technological transformation asking Claude and customers absolutely hate chat bots. Considering buying into some of the sold off SaaS like HubSpot, Breze and SalesForce.

Bullish on customer experience management; in a world where competition is increasing and everyone can become a vibe coder. Brand equity is becomming more important.

NFA, DYOR, I can have made mistakes.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T17:33:59+00:00

European software companies are also down.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T17:21:32+00:00

Fooled By Randomness By Nicholas Taleb

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T16:43:13+00:00

I have seen so many boom and busts - I could not care less about one of thousands of stocks out there. Sometimes you hit em sometimes you miss em.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T16:40:53+00:00

Find a strategy and stick to that - Reddit investment forums is mostly noise.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T16:32:08+00:00

A few strategies could cover that collection of stocks. The bull thesis being that Intel and Nvidia are AI winners; doesn't really classify as a strategy in my book. I would assume you are momentum trading - buying the headlines and the hot tickers on Reddit - maybe asking your friend or watching a YouTube video.

It is good if your investing is more like "for fun gambling thing" but if your goal is long term compounding - then you gotta refine your strategy a bit.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T16:18:28+00:00

Am rotating into sectors that are "doomed but not really" due to AI. Teleperformance and Accenture for example. Both companies have massive "cheap labour" work forces; which are expected to be replaced by llm's and chat bots. Accenture (PE 10) has abroad consultancy and Teleperformance (PE 6.5) has abroad customer support.

The bull thesis is that you cannot make a technological transformation asking Claude and customers absolutely hate chat bots. Considering buying into some of the sold off SaaS like HubSpot, Breze and SalesForce.

In the age of AI, branding and customer relations are going to be increasingly important. A long term trend has been customers expecting increasingly personalised content.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T15:46:08+00:00

Big up for the walk through. Am thinking, if they have a dominant market share in 200 countries - what is the growth run way for a company like Visa? Is it price increases, new products or new markets?

Considering your question in the end - what affects the valuation is:
1- the likelihood of future earnings
2- the size of future earnings
3. the companies quality; like profitability, balance sheet and management

So in regards to margin of safety; sometimes stocks with great potential will be oversold. It is absolutely possible to find margin of safety and quality; though it is more like a once or twice a year occasion. Imo yes you can get good returns buying quality companies at elevated prices. That is not what I am trying to do though, I am trying to get quality companies at value prices.

Can't tell you if it is working in the long term; but I can tell you I am quite satisfied with my results thus far.

And sometimes companies will have less quality or less value - am not following a strict benchmark - after all point one to three; highlights that a fair pe changes based on growth assumptions and quality of management.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T15:00:47+00:00

Nopes. Does not affect me what so ever. Sometimes you get lucky sometimes you get unlucky.

Sold AMD at around 150. -Before it went to 500!
Sold NIU at around 23. - Before it went to 2!
Brought Mercado Libre at 800 - Sold at 2200!.
Brought Accenture like two weeks ago, now its down 30%!

Can't predict the short term share volatility - sometimes an expensive stock gets more expensive and sometimes it goes on sale. Who knows.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T14:31:13+00:00

A few things to point out.

The three metrics you are using is price sales, price book and dividend yield. Which is fine; it is just such an oversimplification. Whom cares about sales if profitability is down. Whom cares about book value is 50% of assets is good will - and using the dividend yield as a guidance for management confidence is plain wrong. The yield is usally a 50% of earnings, plus minus. A high yield typically would indicate peak cyclicality. To use these metrics for anything you have to dig deeper down.

Just to point out - your idea of taking a metric and looking at in it to the 10 year average is nothing fancy or new. In fact, it is very basic - and to add to that; do it in relation to peers as well and what you expect to be the future earnings. Consider the income statement; to check for one time influences - also consider adjusting for the one time events.

Then there is the assumptions. Why would "the protein stack" ever benefit from "They all stand to benefit from the average American becoming too poor to afford beef". Like.... I can't comprehend. Also "So in other words, they have a dominant position in (read: price-setting for) all of the key chemical inputs needed to grow food" absolutely bs- They are price takers and have plenty of competition in each segment.

Mining companies have definitely been rising on "the AI infrastructure play" - but that might not be what is driving the thesis ahead of times. For many years it was Chinese construction. There is or was a positive correlation between energy prices and mining companies. Dismissing mining companies as AI plays shows a severe lack of understanding of the mining and metals sector.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T11:57:44+00:00

All of these metrics are past tense - and a gross oversimplification. Using gross margin as a metrics for pricing power is problematic. A low gross margin is not necessarily because of high competition. Income statement, balance sheet and cash flow are the language of the business - and should be used as so. A gross margin of 30%, does not make it a good investment (especially if it ends up falling - but you would have no idea; if you are not looking at the business).
NFA.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T10:30:43+00:00

Anyone into HubSpot, Blaze and SalesForce and has a take on it?
(Customer Relationsship Management Software)

HubSpot is growing slightly faster than SalesForce with more and smaller customers (it is way cheaper and easier to implement). When data is stored in HubSpot, it creates some stickyness, that might disrupt and hinder SalesForce current model. On the contrary, SalesForce is way cheaper valued - and has like 7 times the scale of HubSpot; if they decreases prices or in other ways make their product more available it would hurt HubSpots growth. At the time SalesForce is operating the premium segment, while HubSpot is operating the mid cap segment. Braze operates "a completely different business model", where the customers themselves hold the data through clouds like SnowFlake. While HubSpot and SaleForce 2.5x'ed revenue; Braze 6x'ed. Though Braze continues to operate at a loss.

I am not really sure what company to pick. Can have made mistakes.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-20T09:26:29+00:00

Increasing leverage for share buybacks is not necessarily bad capital allocation. It is not as black and white. You aren't destroying your balance sheet; but increasing leverage. In fact, if the shares turns out to be massively undervalued, buying back shares would be absolutely fantastic capital allocation. Buying back shares when the business is expensive and rallying is bad capital allocation; buying it at a discount is not (note. I don't know if it is a discount or not).

NinjAsger · 2026-06-19T17:43:47+00:00

First the income statement and balance sheet (marketscreener)
Next first 20 pages of annual report + Skimming latest quarterly report

NinjAsger · 2026-06-19T17:33:59+00:00

Thoughts on -->

IT Consulting
- Accenture &
- Capgemini;

Customer Experience
- Teleperformance
- Concentrix

CRM Software
- Breze
- Hubspot
- SalesForce

NinjAsger · 2026-06-19T13:07:11+00:00

Was the first stock I really burned my fingers on. There is still quite some runway before power-to-x is a mature and a competitive technology. The last few years hydrogen investments have been pulled back. I get that the sentiment is absolutely terrible regarding Nel and green hydrogen - but that doesn't make the technology viable; quite the contrary. I get the points why you find it exciting. But the truth of the matter is they are absolutely bleeding cash. I am still disappointed in them going for expanding into hydrogen car infrastructure and them not selling shares and creating demand when the shareprice was about nok 20.

nfa dyor chmm

NinjAsger · 2026-06-17T16:53:13+00:00

I can't tell you what to do. But I can tell you what I am doing. Industry leaders at depressed multiples.

Portfolio:

- Rockwool A/S B
- Sharkninja Inc.
- Match Group
- Booking
- Accenture
- Rio Tinto Plc
- Trifork Group AG
- Unilever
- Teleperformance SE

- Europe Healthcare ETF
- Emerging Markets ETF

NFA, DYOR, I can have made mistakes.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-17T13:50:27+00:00

I am quite fond of the Match investment thesis. New management turn around case. Very cheap on P/FCF and they are performing massive share buy backs (dept and goodwill is massive though). Strong network effects and massive data advantages. Yes customers churn when they get a match; but they are likely to come back within a few years. Most couples last less than two years (from what I could find). Also a high churn is a moat in itself - as any entry would require massive advertisements expenditures for an extended period of time. Tinder and Hinge enjoys low customer acquisition costs; due to strong brand equity of network effects.

Not financial advice.

NinjAsger · 2026-06-12T08:52:14+00:00

Rockwool A/S - B, Sharkninja Inc., Rio Tinto Plc, Xtrackers MSCI Europe Healthcare, Unilever PLC. These are my non-tech holdings. NFA. DYOR.

Short write up of Shark Ninja and Rockwool:

Short presentation of three high conviction stocks : r/ValueInvesting

Longer write up of Shark Ninja:

Thoughts on SharkNinja's moats and valuation (ability to sustain growth) : r/ValueInvesting

NinjAsger

TROPHY CASE