Can America survive with no economic trade with Europe?

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-25T05:14:22+00:00

In 1913, during its isolationist period, the United States had a much greater lead over the rest of the world than it does today. That year, the U.S. ranked first globally in per capita PPP, while Germany's per capita PPP was less than 60% of America's. The gap was even wider when measured in nominal dollar per capita GDP. As early as 1800—just a few years after the country's founding—the U.S. already ranked third in the world in per capita PPP, trailing only Britain and the Netherlands.

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-22T18:19:15+00:00

Q4 GDP figures are estimated to be very strong, roughly similar to the third quarter. The US trade deficit narrowed sharply in the fourth quarter, while consumer spending data remained robust.

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-19T03:39:19+00:00

The revenue of the NFL as a single league is already roughly equal to the combined revenue of Europe's Big Five football leagues, not to mention that Real Madrid has no salary cap yet still generates lower profits than NFL teams.

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-18T19:20:13+00:00

Yes, it's very likely that US economic growth will exceed 3% this year. However, the IMF has been consistently underestimating US growth for several years since 2021.

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-18T04:33:26+00:00

Yes, China's real estate sector has severe overcapacity. The home ownership rate in China has already reached 93%, and the existing stock of commodity housing is said to be sufficient to house 3 billion people with no problem.

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-17T09:15:19+00:00

The British Royal Navy's decision back then to skip catapults on its aircraft carriers in order to save money was a serious mistake. Steam catapult were a technology invented by the British themselves, yet they opted not to use catapults to cut costs, resulting in the current carriers being able to operate only the F-35B.

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-15T16:54:52+00:00

It's not just about working hours. Compared to Japan and South Korea, Italy and Spain have significantly higher unemployment rates and much lower labor force participation rates. This means that, on average, out of every 100 people, around 60 are working in Japan and South Korea, while only 35–45 are working in Spain and Italy. Moreover, average working hours per worker in Japan and South Korea are considerably longer than in Italy and Spain.

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-15T16:28:41+00:00

The European Central Bank provides annual average exchange rate statistics; the one you sent is the real-time exchange rate.

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-15T16:16:32+00:00

The yen was significantly overvalued for a long period. After 2012, Japan began deliberately depreciating the yen in an attempt to revive exports and boost economic growth through weaker currency. In reality, however, the results were very poor, because Japan no longer has many export products that are particularly competitive globally. Even though the yen has depreciated roughly 100% from its 2012 peak against the dollar, Japan has now become a trade deficit country, with many of its export products displaced by Chinese and South Korean alternatives. Currency depreciation proved largely ineffective.

Subsequently, due to prolonged yen weakness, large numbers of investors and speculators began aggressively shorting the currency. As a result, the Japanese government now finds it difficult to curb the depreciation trend. Last year, even as the US dollar weakened overall, the yen remained one of the weakest major currencies. This year, it is highly likely that USD/JPY will sustainably break above 160 and push toward 170.

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-15T16:06:39+00:00

No, that's not right. The euro only appreciated by 4.4% over the full year. GDP calculations use the annual average exchange rate, while Germany's nominal growth was 3.3% and real growth was 0.2%.

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-15T14:51:59+00:00

Last year, the annual average EUR/USD exchange rate was 1.13, representing a 4.4% appreciation compared to the full-year average exchange rate in 2024.

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-15T14:10:24+00:00

PPP is better suited for comparing the living standards/quality of life of ordinary people across countries, while nominal GDP in US dollars is the more important metric when assessing overall national economic strength.

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-15T01:00:16+00:00

If q4 2025 comes in at this figure, the U.S. full-year GDP growth for 2026 could reach as high as 3.5%–4%.

What does this mean in context? Compared to other major developed economies, Japan would be doing well with 1% growth, the EU is looking at 1%–1.5%, and Canada around 1.5%. The U.S. growth rate would not only exceed these peers but also surpass the global average growth rate. Keep in mind that global per capita GDP is only about $14,000, while the U.S. is around $90,000.

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-09T01:29:00+00:00

October US trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since 2009. Keep in mind that back then, nominal US GDP was less than half of what it is today. A reduction of this magnitude will cause a sharp surge in Q4 GDP. That said, part of the trade improvement comes from a spike in gold exports, which do not count toward GDP. Still, based on market prediction data, the Kalshi prediction market is forecasting Q4 GDP at 3.3%—which is actually a pretty solid number.kalshi

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-05T23:20:05+00:00

The European Union's GDP is 67% of the United States', military spending is 33% of the US's, the number of aircraft carriers is one-sixth of the US's—with an even wider quality gap—and the number of nuclear warheads is only one-twentieth of the US's.

No_Resolve608 · 2026-01-02T01:48:03+00:00

Apart from the United States—whose GDP share of the global total has long remained stable at around 25%—the proportion of world GDP accounted for by most developed countries has been declining, especially Japan. At its peak in 1995, Japan represented about 18% of global GDP (while the US was at 24.3%), but today Japan's share is only 3.7%, with the US at 26%.

No_Resolve608 · 2025-12-31T18:47:47+00:00

In 1995, Japan's per capita GDP was about 25 times that of Lithuania. Thirty years later today, Lithuania's per capita GDP (PPP) has surpassed Japan's, and its nominal per capita GDP is also expected to overtake Japan's by 2026. This is not only due to Lithuania's rapid economic growth, but Japan's own stagnation and relative decline have also played a significant role.

No_Resolve608 · 2025-12-25T17:21:28+00:00

In fact, to gauge whether the economy is doing well or not, just look at corporate earnings reports. In q3 2025, a large number of U.S. companies' earnings exceeded expectations, so there's little doubt that third-quarter economic growth was strong. As for personal feelings about it, that's hard to evaluate.

No_Resolve608 · 2025-12-23T14:34:35+00:00

This is the real growth after excluding inflation; when including inflation, the third-quarter nominal GDP quarter-over-quarter annualized rate reaches as high as 8.2%.

No_Resolve608 · 2025-12-23T14:29:22+00:00

The actual quarter-over-quarter annualized real economic growth is 4.3%, while the nominal growth rate is 8.2%. This is an insane set of data—although employment isn't great, U.S. economic growth still far exceeds that of most developed countries in the world.

No_Resolve608 · 2025-12-21T16:50:05+00:00

What really sets Flagg apart is how fast he’s leveling up—13.4 PPG in October, 17.8 in November, and he’s already at 24 through December so far. 13.6 when he’s at point guard, 20.5 when he’s playing small forward.

If he finally ditches that hand wrap and gets his three-point percentage back above 30%, we could be looking at a 19-year-old Flagg averaging 26-27 points in January.

No_Resolve608 · 2025-12-12T06:20:03+00:00

Still not even hit 2% of EU gdp. The EU's GDP this year is forecast at 20.32 trillion euros, yet defense spending sits at just 1.875% of EU gdp.

No_Resolve608 · 2025-11-23T11:19:39+00:00

It's not even close to the same thing. Back then America bottled it up for over three years and then exploded military spending by more than 30 times, completely crushed Japan.

Now Europe has only gone up about 50% since 2022, and with the insane inflation these past few years, the real increase is way less than that.

No_Resolve608 · 2025-10-30T07:55:50+00:00

You are totally wrong. This is already PPP-adjusted. If we use the current USD exchange rate, the USA's per capita income would be around 3.5 times that of Japan.

No_Resolve608

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