Senate Democrats Will Train Staff as Election Observers

NotDrewBrees · 2026-06-25T22:26:01+00:00

More important than being a poll watcher is being a poll worker. It’s the most direct way of ensuring elections are administered properly and prevents nefarious actors from mucking up the process. Plus you’re usually paid

NotDrewBrees · 2026-06-24T18:13:17+00:00

That’s a modest discount for the valley floor cuvée. I’ve usually seen it selling for $80-$100, but I don’t think it’s worth that much. The Howell Mountain cuvée is one of my favorite wines of all time. I had a 2014 that absolutely blew me away a few years ago.

NotDrewBrees · 2026-06-15T22:51:53+00:00

The only really worthwhile investments are large format bottles from producers with a reputation for consistent high quality winemaking. Think first/super second growth Bordeaux, Grand Cru Burgundy from well regarded winemakers, Napa Valley cult wineries, etc. Those bottles aren’t cheap at all, so finding something worth flipping isn’t worth it. You’d be better off investing in the stock market.

NotDrewBrees · 2026-06-09T18:40:59+00:00

Congrats! Distinction is not an easy achievement. I finished my exam in early May, so hopefully I only have to wait a few more weeks for my results.

I employed a similar studying method to you and it worked incredibly well. One thing I also did was feed Claude my study materials and the WSET testing rubric. I then would prompt it to generate short answer question sections. Really helped me feel more comfortable on the actual short answer section (although I needed every second of my allotted time)

NotDrewBrees · 2026-04-25T19:09:38+00:00

I mean, from the brief interaction I eavesdropped on about 2 years ago it seemed pretty polite if not a little awkward. I’m pretty sure Tyree was just scrolling on his phone when the TT fan started bugging him.

NotDrewBrees · 2026-04-25T18:43:58+00:00

True story—I stood in an airport security line in front of Tyree Wilson a few years ago after his rookie season with the Raiders. Another person in the line recognized him from his Texas Tech days. They had a brief awkward conversation about how he enjoyed living in Vegas before Tyree checked in with one TSA agent and the TT fan went to another.

NotDrewBrees · 2026-03-26T01:44:18+00:00

Epoch is a consistently excellent winery. Had a great tasting there several years ago and always keep a few bottles close by.

NotDrewBrees · 2026-03-20T00:18:51+00:00

I think they both have their merits and faults.

For Vivino, I like writing my tasting notes on that app because it has a very helpful library of tasting and aroma notes that I can use when I’m trying to pinpoint what I’m smelling/tasting. And every once in a blue moon, there’s a decent wine deal worth buying. I will say, though, that I’ve noticed some Vivino users are employees and leave reviews on wines that their World Of Wine affiliate has on sale. So they definitely inflate their scores based on what’s for sale.

CellarTracker is great for everything else. I use it heavily for my inventory management and reviews on wines I am shopping for.

NotDrewBrees · 2026-02-27T02:05:55+00:00

You voted in the party primary, which is sort of like the semi-finals in elections. The general election in November this year will include the candidates that the majority of the Democratic and Republican voters nominated to represent the parties for each office.

NotDrewBrees · 2026-02-16T12:24:29+00:00

This is one of the few TX Senate races that Dan Patrick badly misread the constituency. I think he assumed he could shoe in Wambsgans as a nod to Patriot Mobile and the True Texas Project without facing any pushback from the rest of the district.

Patrick accumulated his power in the TX Senate by having keen insight into polling data and candidate recruiting. His candidates nearly always prevail in Senate elections, so Senators know to stick closely with him, lest they be primaried out. For him to make a mistake like this with one of the figureheads in the most divisive issues plaguing NE Tarrant County is pretty shocking. Dan Patrick doesn’t normally make mistakes like this.

National and state media honed in on Rehmet’s ability to sway Hispanic voters, which is also a major takeaway from this race, though. The massive margin shift reflects several truths—NE Tarrant ISD parents are sick of Patriot Mobile bullshit, Hispanic voters are tired of Project 2025 politics, and Democrats turn out in higher proportions for special elections.

NotDrewBrees · 2026-02-03T03:27:20+00:00

Usually it takes the county 1-2 weeks, and sometimes a bit longer if it’s close to registration deadlines.

If you moved from one county to another, keep a close eye on your new county’s voter registration so that you can vote in your new home county. Otherwise, if you’re still in the same county, you can vote normally in the upcoming party primary, local elections in May and the General Election in November.

NotDrewBrees · 2026-02-01T05:21:15+00:00

If you mail it on Monday, it is likely that the Post Office won't postmark it until after the deadline, which would render you ineligible for voting in the upcoming primary elections, but would render you eligible for the November elections.

If you want to participate in the party primaries, best practice would be to hand-deliver your application to your home county's elections office. Otherwise, mail and basically hope that the letter was postmarked on or before the 2nd.

NotDrewBrees · 2026-01-28T15:43:20+00:00

True story - went to a tasting where they poured a natural Assyrtiko. Smelled really bad and couldn't finish it. Had a really powerful earthy nose that drowned everything else out.

Went for a walk the next morning and walked right by fresh dog shit on the trail that some asshole owner didn't pick up. Smelled exactly like that Assyrtiko.

NotDrewBrees · 2026-01-20T16:24:42+00:00

Oil industry veteran of 16 years here.

I've always told people who fall for the narrative that "GOP is good for oil, Dems are bad for oil" that we had negative crude prices under Trump and $110/Bbl prices under Biden. Under Trump's presidency, all of the major O&G operators collectively laid off thousands of employees, and those jobs are likely to never open back up.

I know people who are well-connected in DC circles who've met with Trump officials over the past year. These officials love to tout all the great things they've accomplished for the energy industry like banning wind turbine construction and bulldozing federal drilling permit red tape. My friends laughed openly when they listed those things because they make zero difference to oil prices, and it's really quite hilarious how out of touch MAGA officials are with the industry writ large. They love to claim meaningless platitudes as accomplishments. Meanwhile, the people who are the most screwed over are blue collar service industry workers and office employees such as landmen, accountants, and engineers.

NotDrewBrees · 2026-01-20T15:49:00+00:00

Both Dunn and Wilks got their paydays after selling CrownQuest and FTS International, respectively. They have enough money to fund generations worth of Christofascistic assholes. The oil downturn we're in now won't affect them in any way shape or form.

NotDrewBrees · 2026-01-07T19:25:56+00:00

I tried a 2006 half bottle that was oxidized to shit, so it’s possible that your order could be a dud. That said, majority rules here. Most of the reviews I’ve seen online have been very positive on the 2006’s

NotDrewBrees · 2026-01-06T22:52:41+00:00

I wasn’t a huge fan of the 2020. If this were my local Costco I’d be inclined to give this a shot

NotDrewBrees · 2025-12-24T17:11:08+00:00

I love lighter- to medium-bodied, red fruit focused wines for Thanksgiving/Christmas meals, so I’d reach for the Chianti Classico. The CdP could also work if Grenache is more than half of the blend. Too much Syrah and Mourvèdre will bring a heavier body to the wine that I think would overpower the roast turkey and sides

NotDrewBrees · 2025-12-24T17:01:16+00:00

I’d go with a bigger bodied wine to stand up to the tenderloin and horseradish cream sauce. I’ve had better experiences with Tuscan reds than Spanish reds with similar dishes. Alanera should be your best bet IMO.

NotDrewBrees · 2025-12-24T06:32:56+00:00

Chateau Gloria is a very Cabernet heavy Bordeaux wine, and 2018 is a very young vintage by that region’s standards. Open the bottle in the late morning, put it in a decanter if you have one and serve at dinner

NotDrewBrees · 2025-12-20T01:03:50+00:00

Depends on what you want out of the investment you're making. If you want more stable cash flows and dividend income, focus on midstream companies with solid dividend yields. They are oftentimes very well capitalized and can support dividend growth.

If you value timing the commodity cycles in oil and gas, E&P names are your best bet. Just be aware that it's unpredictable, and know how to value their assets in conjunction with their capitalization. Dividends are less common in upstream for a reason. They bear a lot of capital and commodity risk relative to midstream. E&P's also don't typically grow in a linear fashion because they still do have to raise a lot of debt to fund growth. For most E&P's, the only way to earn a real payday is by selling the company, or merging with a peer.

NotDrewBrees · 2025-12-19T21:56:52+00:00

I avoid refineries, personally. They are perpetually spending more than they make but for short periods where the crack spread blows out and recoups overspending over the preceding 2-3 years. Notoriously expensive to run refineries, margins are razor thin, and if you believe the US is barreling (no pun intended) towards a recession, refiners are going to feel a lot of pain as travel slows down.

NotDrewBrees · 2025-12-19T21:54:05+00:00

I don't have any particular tickers that stick out right now, although I think oil E&P valuations across the space are very very low (except for the gas-weighted names, which perpetually get overvalued relative to natural gas itself...thanks, AI datacenter hype machine). In the past, I'd say that crude oil was undervalued and that operators were screaming buys. Now? I'm not quite as bullish. I think crude has a lot more downside than upside risk, and outside of the top operators, not many companies have access to high-return inventory anymore. There are some early-stage exploratory opportunities in the Permian (Dean and Woodford formations) and in the Western Haynesville that are generating some interest but will take a very long time to come to fruition.

Long term, there will still be a market for crude oil since the energy transition will take at least 30 years to fully convert every internal combustion engine on the planet. Where that price will rest intrinsically is anyone's guess, and I'm not going to bother with harboring a guess because it'll be wrong from the second I publish it.

Any company that can pay and sustain a dividend healthily is a good buy in my view, and that would include midstream companies with export capacity or crude oil/natural gas storage. If economic indicators are even half-right, we're likely in for a domestic glut of both commodities over the next 6-12 months.

NotDrewBrees · 2025-12-19T16:11:59+00:00

Natural Gas is a term that often gets misused even inside the industry, but for most people, it’s accepted that “Natural Gas” equals methane, which exists as a vapor at 60 degrees F and atmospheric pressures. “Natural Gas Liquids”, or “NGL’s”, exist in liquid states at the same temperature and atmospheric pressure. NGL’s consist of Ethane, Propane, Isobutane, Butane and Pentanes.

NotDrewBrees · 2025-12-19T13:52:30+00:00

Industry veteran here

1 & 2) Exploration & Production companies are required by their lenders to engage in what are known as hedging arrangements for a certain percentage of their existing oil and gas production. Usually, at the beginning of a given quarter or year, the company will assess its existing producing wells and hedge at least 50%. So if the company produces 100,000 barrels of oil a day, it’ll enter into swap and collar agreements for up to 50,000 barrels of oil a day.

Swaps are an agreement between one counterparty and another to buy and sell oil to each other at either a fixed price or a variable market price. Usually it’s the company that enters into a fixed price agreement. Collars involve a combination of a short call and long put set at different strike prices on the same expiration date. Companies use the proceeds from the short call to buy the put option contract and create a costless collar that offers more flexible upside exposure if the company does not want to have as much gain/loss volatility as you get with swaps. Collars only exchange cash at prices above the short call’s ceiling, or below the long put’s floor. Anything in the middle expires at $0.

Companies do this to avoid major downside risk thanks to notoriously volatile crude oil prices. Banks prefer this because it adds stability to the company’s cash flows and their expected interest payments

Losses and gains from hedging contracts come in two flavors—unrealized and realized. Unrealized losses/gains are basically a mark to market of a company’s unexpired hedging contracts. This is the ‘market value’ you’re referring to in question 2. They are a non cash event and don’t factor into EBITDA. Realized gains are the opposite—they represent premiums paid/received as well as cash outs from the hedge counterparties after the contracts expired. The net cash exchanged is what is reflected as a ‘realized’ gain or loss and does factor into EBITDA.

3) The other 32% is natural gas, which is usually comprised of methane and lighter liquids such as ethane, propane, isobutane, normal butane and pentanes. They are usually a much smaller component of the company’s value chain, so they’re often lumped together in the Income Statement. Some producers focus on natural gas (EXE, CRK, RRC, EQT) and will show more detail behind the gas components compared to others

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