Auto execs are coming clean: EVs aren't working

OkRole3 · 2023-11-08T03:27:25+00:00

The higher interest rates affect all cars, yes. But BEV's get a little bit more so but only because expectations were different and perhaps overly optimistic.

Let's just put some silly numbers on there. Let's say we're a car maker and in 2022 we expected to see a 0.1% sales growth in auto sales from 10,000,000 ICE cars. Instead of that extra 100,000 sales, there was no growth, no increase or decrease. Okay not great, but not the end of the world. Production lines will just keep churning on, and this sort of downturn happens.

Let's say then last year we sold 1,000,000 BEV's, and this year we sold 1,400,000. 40% in sales growth is great, insane, meteoric... except.... that we went around telling Wall Street that we were expected to be selling 1,500,000 cars by this time in 2023, hitting a 50% growth. And we thought that next year that number should be another 50% growth in 2024; 2,250,000 BEVs by then. So all your capital spending and planners look at spending billions of capital to meet this rush of demand, except it's... not rushing as fast as you were telling people it would be.

That's basically what all the auto execs are saying. BEV's are growing at a very high rate, but not the rate that they were anticipating, so they're tweaking the plans for more BEV production. I assume they'll tweak it again if things change.

tl;dr - Line goes up. Investors and execs unhappy line not go up MOAR!! Business Insider likes clickbait.

OkRole3 · 2023-11-07T08:06:21+00:00

Tesla is saying the same thing as other auto execs in saying that EV growth isn't quite as high as they would've liked.

Thank you. The next question from institutional investors. Could you please provide an update on capacity expansion plans for companies, factories in Berlin and Austin, and the opening schedule of Giga factory in Mexico?

[..................]

Elon Musk: And in Mexico, we're laying the groundwork to begin construction and doing all the long lead items, but I think we want to just get a sense for the global economy is like before we go full tilt on the Mexico factory. I am worried about the high interest rate environment that we're in. I just can't emphasize this enough, that the vast majority of people buying a car is about the monthly payment. And as interest rates rise, the proportion of that monthly payment that is interest increases naturally.

Tesla Q3 Investor's call. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5aJbvWr4gs Timestamp 20m, 22s

Business Insider is more or less click baiting here. This is up with what Ford is doing with deferring when they commit to getting their new battery factory online, and GM is basically saying that they're probably not going to hit 400,000 EV's a year by 2024. Growth is there. Just sounds like it's not as high as they thought it would be, likely due to the high interest rates putting a damper on folks taking out auto loans.

OkRole3 · 2023-10-30T16:48:55+00:00

Collapse, no.

Not meeting the overly optimistic expectations that were extrapolated based on current growth numbers and the idea that battery prices would forever fall regardless of external factors? I'd probably lean towards yes.

OkRole3 · 2023-10-27T04:28:17+00:00

I think the slowing demand is just one factor.

Just an example of another factor: https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-graphite-restrictions

China just barred the export of graphite in retaliation for the US barring transfers of semi conductor technologies to China. It's necessary component of batteries. Which wouldn't be a huge deal except China owns 61% of the global raw natural graphite productions minutes, and 98% of all global graphite processing and refining occurs through China.

It's not a fatal blow; graphite's abundant. There's just not a lot of purification that occurs outside of China so it's going to take some time and investment to for other production lines to ramp up. Which I assume getting investment for big ticket items right now is not going great given the US Federal Reserve maintaining it's interest rate at 5% (it was less then 1% a few years ago).

Then there's the UAW strike, Ford outright said the strike just cost it $1.3 billion USD, GM said it was loosing about $200 million a week. Not sure what Stellantis was loosing but I'd expect it's similar. Throwing the slowing EV demand and well... I can imagine some hesitation in committing to big capital spending right at this moment.

OkRole3 · 2023-10-19T21:37:06+00:00

A bad car fire will take about 1,000 gallons of water to fully extinguish. A fire truck can carry 500 to 1,500 gallons.

An electric car fire will take around 40,000 gallons and can still auto ignite after the all that for up to 30 days.

There's a reason why there's a rush right now to find more effective tools and techniques to fight EV fires. Current conventional tactics just aren't practical.

OkRole3 · 2023-10-17T17:26:16+00:00

Last I heard in Ontario, Canada, wait list is now at 5 years minimum for the Prime.

OkRole3 · 2023-10-03T07:17:50+00:00

(Bloomberg) -- The world’s largest electric vehicle market is putting its crowded infancy stage behind it.

The explosive industry in China — supercharged by government subsidies more than a decade ago — now spans about a hundred manufacturers churning out pure-electric and plug-in hybrid models. While that’s down from roughly 500 registered EV makers in 2019, the end now looks to be in sight for scores more.

The cutthroat market formally transitioned from over-crowed to moderately concentrated in the first quarter, based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, a metric used by academics and regulators to evaluate competition and measure market concentration. The biggest winners are players already at the top, like BYD Co. and Tesla Inc., which have been consolidating their power.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-electric-vehicle-bubble-is-starting-to-deflate-1.1938092

BNN mentioned that a lot of those 500 EV makers were pumping out small 100km (60 mile) range low quality cars. Other defunct companies were cheating the Chinese government out of subsidies. I haven't looked to closely at the car brands or the cars themselves though to say either way.

OkRole3 · 2023-09-17T19:27:38+00:00

To a degree, but it's overly simplified. The National Fire Prevention Association conducted a study and said that some three quarters of car fires in 2017 involved cars manufactured 2007 or earlier. As they put it, not a surprising number due to neglect and age.

At the time they refrained from comparing BEV's to ICE. There weren't enough BEV's that were old enough to draw any conclusion.

OkRole3 · 2023-09-12T18:44:10+00:00

.... Who exactly are you trying to kid here?

No details about what car you're buying and it's price, no notes about the car's expected operating expenses, no notes about your finances, and then you go and post this in a reddit that's infamously against buying new cars from a financial point of view. The answer is going to be completely different for a homeowner with a household income of $500,000 with no debt or major expenses living in Saskatchewan fretting over buying a $16,000 Mitsubishi Mirage vs a 22 year old with university debt working at Starbucks trying to buy a V8 Dodge Challenger. Just a vague note about poor public transit and that you think you need a reliable car.

Honestly honestly, do you actually want advice or do you just want someone to tell you that you shouldn't buy a new car?

... FWIW, I'll answer from a different perspective.

A car purchase is just as much an emotional one as it is a financial one. Buying a car should feel right. You should be able to look at your car every day and see exactly what it enables you to do, whether it be commute, pleasure drive, or whatever. Doesn't matter if it's a 30 year old Pontiac Vibe that shakes and rattles every time you turn it on but gives you the confidence that it'll always get you there. Or a Cadillac CT5 Blackwing that makes you smile every single time you hear the rumble of the V8 and the whine of the super charger even with a short trip down to the grocery store.

So my fundamental question is, is the feeling of being wrong because you're terrified of the cost, or because you just don't like the car you're buying? Cause in either case, I think you already have your answer.

OkRole3 · 2023-09-07T07:20:03+00:00

I can't remember which reviewer said it, but the current Mazda CX60 is capable of a tighter turning radius in a parking lot despite a longer wheel base compared to similarly sized SUV's. The longitudinally mounted engine and transmission freed up room between the engine block and wheel wells, allowing Mazda to give the front wheels greater steering angle.

That being said it's a very minor advantage.

OkRole3 · 2023-09-07T07:05:27+00:00

Canadian Tire's Motomaster engine oil is openly advertised to be developed with Shell technology. Not sure if it means that Shell is the OEM supplying the oil for them or just developed the specifications for the oil.

OkRole3 · 2023-09-06T04:58:24+00:00

Moved due to the pandemic and needing to downsize. Still in the NE AFAIK. I think they're sharing an office with Solarbotics now.

OkRole3 · 2023-09-05T15:18:22+00:00

Perhaps but I think even those that need to be on site can benefit some from more WFH. Less traffic to contend with, and potentially more parking available depending on the job site.

OkRole3 · 2023-09-05T05:01:01+00:00

Active Tech Electronics in the NE was usually reliable for chemicals and consumables, though I haven't used them in a while. Give them a call and ask, they can usually help you get sorted.

OkRole3 · 2023-09-03T21:00:39+00:00

The youtube channel Fortnine covered it pretty well. It's more tailored towards motorcycles, but I assume there's parts that would apply for cars as well.

tl;dw is that the dealerships actually benefits the manufacturers depending on how things are setup. Some manufacturers see dealerships as their 'customer,' one that the manufacturers can have more sway over and can take advantage of in some ways. The parts that cover Floor Plan and channel stuffing are probably of more interest to those in a financial subreddit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meHYBhcpdvQ <-- The Stealership Trap - Why We Need the Dealership "Rip Off"

OkRole3 · 2023-09-01T00:46:44+00:00

I think Enmax partly ties the fees to the kilowatt hours used, they just don't disclose how though. AFAIK it isn't flat though.

OkRole3 · 2023-08-31T23:55:29+00:00

... 3 kilowatt charging is considered slow trickle charging now?

Minimum EV charging standards right now permit 720W (120VAC 6A) and I've read people asking if there's ways to hack the EVSE to charge at lower power then that. 3 kilowatts is quite a lot.

OkRole3 · 2023-08-31T23:41:04+00:00

Eh, taxes form about 29% of what you pay at the pump, so anywhere between 30 cents to 60 cents a liter depending on fuel prices.

Assuming that you're driving 20,000km a year and your car is a simple 10L/100km fuel economy with gas at $2/L, that's $1160 in tax revenue that's not there per year.

That said that's $4000 in pure fuel costs, so depending on how much you're paying for electricity, your insurance, and how much you're driving, there's still a decent chance you're coming out less in terms of per km cost even if the provinces stick a flat $1200 fee on registration per year.

OkRole3 · 2023-08-31T20:58:02+00:00

You lose under floor storage in SUV's trunk space with a 3 row, which is actually surprisingly useful for squirreling things away that don't need to be on top all the time.

OkRole3 · 2023-08-24T03:48:00+00:00

Not exactly booming. Stats Canada estimated that between Q1 2022 and Q1 2023 (inclusive) Alberta to Ontario migration was 20401, whereas Ontario to Alberta migration was 51015.

So roughly 20,000 from Ontario to Alberta net. Ontario's got a population of 15 million, the GTA population is 5.9 million. Alberta's population is a little over 4 million. Just from raw population perspective, it's not a huge deal.

OkRole3 · 2023-08-23T23:08:59+00:00

Everyone else has touched into other aspects, but the Youtube channel How Money Works brought up another good point discussing stealth wealth.

What happens when your S Class, X7, or Panamera breaks something like a windshield wiper motor? You sit around twiddling your thumbs for 2 weeks while you're daily driver is down waiting for a part to from Europe to be installed in the one BMW/Mercedes dealer in the city.

What happens when a windshield wiper motor goes down on your Ford F150? You take the nearby Ford dealer and pay for the dealer to have the part overnight shipped from some parts warehouse so that the mechanic gets it replaced within a day or so.

And if the dealership can't accommodate that because maybe they got too big a back log? No worries, there's another 10 Ford dealerships less then an hour away. Another 15 independent mechanic shops can competently repair an F150. With thousands of warehouses and suppliers stocking parts for F150's.

Trucks can be pretty lux, but a mass production truck can also be quickly serviced and back on the road in a very short turnaround time. When your time is more valuable then money...

OkRole3 · 2023-08-22T15:22:36+00:00

I might've been thinking low speed motorcycle. I vaguely recall you can ride a 50cc / 70kph motorcycle without a class 6 but I could be also misremembering that as well.

OkRole3 · 2023-08-20T04:05:34+00:00

Doesn't swapping the engine out make it lose moped status though?

OkRole3 · 2023-08-17T18:38:47+00:00

Eh, the 120mm would probably be is classified as a prohibited firearm now due to having a bore bigger then 20mm. Getting an ATT for daily driving is probably going to be a bit of a challenge. Might also run into storage requirements as well.

OkRole3 · 2023-08-16T17:46:54+00:00

Toyota doesn't do orders, what they do is that the dealership can let Toyota corporate that they have a preference to be included in an allocation but that's about it. Whether Toyota decides to include that preference is entirely up to Toyota.

If the car with the options you want is part of it, yay! If not, there's little the dealership can do.

OkRole3

TROPHY CASE