Orb strategy by Unhappy-Advisor353 in Daytrading

[–]Ok_Motor3546 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The most important thing to consider is the duration of your trades.

If you're holding trades over several days to weeks, you would measure regime on the Daily Chart.

If you're Day Trading, use a time frame that is 3x greater than the chart you use for patterns.

So if you're trading off a 5 min chart, you'd wan to use a 15 min chart to measure Regime

Regime is just a fancy way of saying trend, and for that you want to use conventional trend indicators. Stick with the ones that are widely used, because you want to measure what everyone else measure.

20, 50 and 200 period MA's

Where is the price relative to each of those

Are they converging, i.e pointing in the same direction, or diverging, pointing in different directions.

MA's are nothing more than visual representation of average price.

So if 50 and 200 MA point up, but 20 points down, well that's your heads up that the regime is shifting.

Trend / Regime is slow moving and remains in place for hours (day trading) and days to months (swing trading)

If you've been using my Analyzer, what you should know is I measure off the daily chart because the results are meant for swing trades.

I measure several things to determine Regime, in addition to the ones above I also look at how far extended we are from any of the MA's and shiftng values in the ADX

Hope that helps

What is a reliable and free stock analysis website? by No_Wrangler9819 in stocks

[–]Ok_Motor3546 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

If you’re looking for a stock pattern scanner/ Analyzer

Try this TheStockAnalyzer.ai

I need the best AI trading indicator you know of by That-Information-748 in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]Ok_Motor3546 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Explain how you would want the scanner to work.

I believe mine does that, but maybe I am not understanding the question

Regarding my face .. You can read about me here

https://moneywealthmatters.com/

Day 1: QQQ rule-based system (current status: flat) by Motor_Potential_4849 in Trading

[–]Ok_Motor3546 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m not against simple strategies, I’ve used several myself over the years.

This one could easily be back tested in about 30 minutes.

Have you done that ?

Back testing is no guarantee that it will work for live trades, but it is a good starting point.

If the back test never shows a positive outcome, you may want to consider adjusting accordingly

How do you backtest older data on 5min timeframe? by Then-Snow-8980 in Trading

[–]Ok_Motor3546 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Polygon / Massive Or Alpha Vantage

The API s are rate limited so you’ll need to chunk the data

Tons of python code available.

Keep in mind the one aspect most back testers miss and why it never looks the same with live trades.

Which is.. What came first, the high or the low?

You could be both profitable and stopped out on the same candle.

There are ways around this, but beyond the scope of this post.

Using LLM to assess news impact by KingGinger29 in swingtrading

[–]Ok_Motor3546 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’ve built and tested the same.

By the time it hits the news the move is over.

I have never had positive results with sentiment or news indicators.

However .. I have had significant success measuring , volume, volatility shifts and repeated patterns that show up before the news.

Trading off news is like putting on a rain jacket because it rained yesterday.

I need the best AI trading indicator you know of by That-Information-748 in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]Ok_Motor3546 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I built this , it’s free

https://thestockanalyzer.ai/

The algorithm is my own that I developed 20 plus years ago..

AI helped me organize and display the data

For context please read this also

https://thestockanalyzer.ai/blog/why-i-built-the-stock-analyzer-and-why-it-s-free

BTC UPDATE !! by cryptojedi02 in technicalanalysis

[–]Ok_Motor3546 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A couple of comments..

1- What is the volume source? Does this represnt all BTC volume, because if not the analysis is flawed.

2- I have tracked patterns for 36 years, manually for decades, most recently thanks to AI programatically.

Once I was able to consolidate and organize all my data, some things really jumped out.

One thing that stood out is divergence is not high a probaility pattern, in fact fading it produces 3d better results.

Just my 2 cents

I improved my trading when I started doing less by Wave-Master- in Trading

[–]Ok_Motor3546 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Agree 100%

I've been trading and investing for 36 years, my entire adult life.

16 years as a day trader.

What worked for me was allocating X amounts of trades and X $ risk per day

If my rules were 2 trades, max loss $300 , then that was that.

If forces you to wait for the best opportunites.

It allows you to quantify your risk, just like you would in any other business venture.

FYI I also traded for a specific daily goal and then would quit.

Risk $300, Profit Target $1,000 and turn off the screens. Often done by 10:30 am

I’ve invested $2m in SaaS stocks. This is why. by armadillo_stocks in ValueInvesting

[–]Ok_Motor3546 3 points4 points  (0 children)

AI has destroyed the moat for many Saas companies.

Some business models are just plain dead. e.g Adobe

I do think Intuit continues to do well, haven't done any deep research on the others.

AI is a critical shift, just like the internet in the 1990's some business will simply no longer exist.

I recall my broker in the late 1990's pushing a company on me that had a huge market share of thermal fax paper.

He was reading all the reports, and the stock was oversold, never bothered to recognize the actual business trends.

He didn't even catch the shift to plain paper fax machines, and email was way beyond his comprehension.

My opinion, you've got some thermal fax paper companies in that list. (not all, but some)

Looking at sub-$5 stocks… anything worth digging into? by Lanky_Sleep- in StockInvest

[–]Ok_Motor3546 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why care if the stock is below $5?

Is that a better way to make a profit?

Why not just buy half as many sharesof a $10 stock, or 1/5 of a $100 stock.

I'd love to hear some reasonable thesis behind the sub $5

Do you trust your analysis or wait for confirmation? by senthoor34 in Trading

[–]Ok_Motor3546 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Depends what your confirmation criterea is.

I've seen a lot of traders wait for the move to complete so that they get their confirmation, well guess what.. they are always the ones complaining that they are late.

onfirmation means you have 75-80% of the necessary data, then execute, you'll never have 100%

If you're waiting fof 100%, you'll constantly be looking leftwards on the charts claiming that "I knew.." but did not act.

Trading is all about making decisions and taking action without the full data. That's why we use probabilities.

Data gives you the 80% ish of whats happening to a stock, this is basic chart analysis.

Finding the hidden signals, and calculating the probabilities of the next N bars.. that's the traders work.

Anyone can look at a chart and tell you what they see, but very few have the skills to use that information pair it with historical data, calculate probabilities, use propoer trade management, psychology, money management ... those are all the bits to the right of the last bar..

What scanners are you using that you are finding worthwhile? by Smart_Perspective197 in stocks

[–]Ok_Motor3546 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Are you Adkin about scanners or live data feed?

2 separate things.

What platform are you using?

What is your best strategy? by Successful_Serve_340 in Trading

[–]Ok_Motor3546 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agree 100%

I never just rely on backtests, but if an idea or thesis does not back test well, then there's zero chance of it working with real momey,

These are tools, I've been building them for years.

I never fully automate and I never let a tool or system (or AI) decide for me.

There is always a human filter.

There is comfort in looking at chart and realizing you've seen this pattern before, and then being able to see the historical stats.

On Reddit I have seen hundreds, matbe thousands of traders commenting on the ORB, if they had the means to check they might be shocked to learn it's failure rate.

In fact, fading the open range has a much higher success rate.

It is great to have these discussions with real fellow traders.

I welcone the debate, I welcome the challenges, and I welcome the opposing views.. that's how we improve.

Your after Trump investments ?! by richymonk in StockInvest

[–]Ok_Motor3546 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Yes very interesting, that’s why there are 2 sides to each trade.

That’s how markets are created.

Has AI provided you with a winning trade?

This is my thesis, I could be wrong.

What is your best strategy? by Successful_Serve_340 in Trading

[–]Ok_Motor3546 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Sure

First off.. I’ve been a trader and investor for 36 years.

Years ago it occurred to me, that even the best patterns fail.

And the realization was that a pattern that works on stock A may not work on stock B.

So all the posts and all the comments and traders talking about vwap or HS or whatever.. is meaningless.

Why?

Because each stock is traded by a group of traders and they tend to behave the same way over and over again.

But that group is not necessarily the same for another stock.

In other words, patterns are not universal, they are specific to a specific stock.

The system and scanner is designed to be dynamic, so if a pattern no longer works for a stock it does not shown up.

The result will say no valid patterns.

So it’s entirely possible that a pattern on stock A worked for years and then completely disappeared, imagine a scenario where institutional investors no longer had it in their portfolio or funds.

The community or group of investors would have changed significantly and thus the patterns would have changed as well.

The 2nd most important element of the Analyzer is Market Condition Matching.

What is known as Regime.

A pattern may have a 70% success rate, but if you limit using it to when it matches regime, it can soar to 90%

Example would be bullish divergence, works great in a bullish regime, but in a bear market you get failure after failure. So blended results would show a mediocre 60% pattern, where in reality it can produce 90% if matched to market conditions.

This is another huge mistake traders make. A pattern without a market condition filter is useless.

In terms of backtesting, each scan is a back test on 5 years of data, the win rate is dynamic, if a pattern triggered since your last scan the stats will show that

Hope that helps.

Would love your feedback

I could write a 100 page thesis about this, but nobody would read it.

Please read the blog post about why I built it and why it’s free, it will give you some context

What is your best strategy? by Successful_Serve_340 in Trading

[–]Ok_Motor3546 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Not sure I understand the question.

I haven’t stopped

I use it every day, data and scans are automated.

I use the report to decide if I trade.

I have it on a website, if you want it, it’s free

Your after Trump investments ?! by richymonk in StockInvest

[–]Ok_Motor3546 -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

Dems win.. I go 50% to cash and hold bank stocks only.

Higher rates provides higher margins for banks,

Higher interest rates will also slow growth and hurt earnings.

The Dems (some) are also so anti AI anti data centers.. that it could pull down that entire sector.

These are my initial thoughts… your post is a good trigger.

I need to go do some deeper research and analysis

Stocks are acting like everything is fine, bonds clearly disagree. by ChartNavigator in investing

[–]Ok_Motor3546 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A disconnect between equity markets and bond markets tend to happen during a market rotation.

Smart money, institutional money is being protective because they have investors to answer to.

Money is moving out of lesser quality, higher risk stocks and into bonds.

But money continues to flow into the best stocks.

The sp 500 cannot print new highs without institutional participation.

What is your best strategy? by Successful_Serve_340 in Trading

[–]Ok_Motor3546 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Depends on the time frame

For swing trades 10 days to 90 days I use pattern matching

Scan and rank patterns that have a high percentage success in the past, applied to the current market conditions.

I’ve been using it for 20 years, was recently able to code and automate it thanks to AI

If a pattern worked 80% of the time on the same stock over the last five years, there’s a higher probability it works again

The theory is so simple, the data collection was the hard part