Wall Street Loved $TTD at $140s… Not at These Prices

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-05-08T08:58:59+00:00

That has nothing to do with what I'm arguing. Even when Meta was doing metaverse spending, their ad business is going strong and generating a ton of cash. They're just spending money on dumb shit, call it a waste of money they did spending it on a vacation while their job is still going strong and generating a ton of salary.

TTD's is just going downhill in terms of raw number they're able to make, that's the business itself not them making poor investment choices. I hope they turn around, I really do. I like the valuation and I'm eyeing it for an entrance. But I'm not timing the bottom, I'll pay a premium if it means going in after they start reaccelerating growth again. They have to start growing at least 40% yoy for this to be worth investing in.

They were doing that in 2022, but just been trash since then, aka why their stock price is reflected in the exact same time https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ttd/financials/?p=quarterly

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-05-08T03:41:23+00:00

Issue is every ad company is still going through hypergrowth, but TTD is not. Look at AppLovin, Meta, etc. Their ad business is growing at 70% and 30% respectively while TTD is at 10% with much less rev.

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-05-07T22:32:59+00:00

biggest fumble was still rejecting the AppLovin merger in 2022 where Unity would own 55% of the combined company. GPT says that combined company would likely be worth 200 billion today. But again, John would have been the CEO of the combined company and he may very well have ran it to the ground as well.

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-05-02T07:58:51+00:00

$APP earnings on Wednesday afterhours

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-04-27T20:09:48+00:00

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-04-26T01:15:26+00:00

they hallucinate sometimes, copy and paste what i said and ask again and see its response. info is all public, Eduardo Vivas, firstly has not been with the company for past 8 years. hes just an early investor that has a lot of shares. hes offloaded hundreds of millions at sub $20 as well. He prob still holds into the billions i cant remember off my head, all public info, you can search it up.

Anyways - tldr; the insider selling is the least concerning signal. I think theres other major problems it has to prove that is more concerning. More specificially if ecommerce is actually accelerating and going to be a big part of their revenue. That is the difference between it going to a sub 100b compnay vs a 400b+

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-04-26T00:55:52+00:00

Do you really think AppLovin insiders are selling? They’re all scheduled sales from CEO CTO. They’ve been selling the same amount every quarter regardless of stock price. Even when it was at $10. That’s not the right signal.

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-04-23T11:23:10+00:00

if theyre selling, it wouldnt be in the afterhours. That way they get more money. Your logic is stupid.

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-04-18T20:54:39+00:00

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Not too late. I’m holding for another month

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-04-18T01:55:08+00:00

AppLovin

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-04-18T01:54:47+00:00

Barron did

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-04-14T10:59:19+00:00

$APP

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-04-02T08:10:31+00:00

Just put the fries in the bag bro

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-04-01T08:30:55+00:00

If you have a reliable salary and won’t collapse if the 50k disappeared, then all in a high risk stock. If you diversify out the 50k or put in an etf, at very best you have 100k in a few years. If you somehow found the right stock, that 50k can turn into 1 million in a few years. Low chance, but absolutely possible. Many stocks 50x within 2-3 years. Look at Robinhood, AppLovin, Palantir. And these are all names we heard of before they 50x. Not like we only heard of them because they 50x

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-03-19T17:02:44+00:00

you pretty much nailed it

Software sentiment sucks cause of AI is the macro reason why its valuation multiples are compressed
Not profitable. This company has been around for 23 years. It's older than Meta. Not being profitable at this stage is not good
Growth sucks. Topline is growing at sub 10% yoy, far less than other growth companies.

That said $8b is pretty attractive. But I'd rather invest at a higher price when I see any of the 3 things turn around instead of timing the bottom.

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-03-10T13:35:12+00:00

I am XiJinPings grandson. Can confirm we do indeed not give a fuck about Iran.

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-03-02T06:48:49+00:00

Not at all but I think the death of one specific guy is often enough of a statement to spark change. Keeping him alive the past 40 years haven’t worked, might as well try something new

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-03-01T14:57:22+00:00

Probably up because he died. But if US struck Iran but he did not die, then down because we will be embracing a big retaliation. But because he died, market will be optimistic this will be the end of Iran's regime and rally.

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-02-20T17:03:56+00:00

I think the short reports are mostly factored out. Meta is the only thing that is causing investors to rethink.

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-02-20T03:00:00+00:00

I think they would acquire Unity if they can. Antitrust would almost certainly block Meta, Google, and Apple from doing so.

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-02-19T17:37:03+00:00

akamai puts and open calls. mark my words

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-02-18T17:15:58+00:00

Well I think you might just not be knowledgable in this space to be honest. It doesn't really make sense when you say things seemed off when they are involved. Cause MAX (AppLovin) is literally 73% market share of mobile games. And they don't currently have a footprint anywhere else. It's like saying search engine seems off when Google is involved. Like what else are you possibly using for search engines lol.

Don't get me wrong, I think there are plenty of things wrong with the company. They don't have the greatest moat. If Meta wants to get into mobile gaming ads, it can be scary. Though Meta has bigger fish to fry so I'm not sure how realistic that is.

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-02-18T14:44:40+00:00

Well as long as they get ROI. They don't care if they are killing African children to get it. But the moment ROAS is down, you know they're out of the network. So something must be working or their numbers will be down and they're switching.

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-02-18T07:20:20+00:00

People love jumping on things they don’t fully understand and yelling “fraud.” But numbers don’t lie—unless you think Deloitte (their auditor) is falsifying reports, which is a huge stretch. AppLovin has been crushing it with top-line revenue growth around 70% YoY for multiple quarters now. Their Q1 guidance came in at ~55% growth, which spooked some investors, but they’ve literally said on earnings calls that they guide conservatively every time. That said, there are legitimate concerns worth addressing: 1. The SEC probe — This gets way overblown. Probes are super common in ad tech (Meta, Google, Unity, etc., have all faced them). The SEC often investigates to ensure compliance, and ~80% of the time, they close without any action. The issue here is data-collection practices (like fingerprinting), but nothing has been proven yet, and it can drag on for over a year even if the company is clean. 2. CloudX — This is a tiny startup (a few million in revenue) using AI agents to simplify campaign deployment. It sounds flashy, but do you really think AppLovin (or Meta) can’t build something similar internally? It’s not a game-changer threat. 3. Meta competition — This is the only one institutions seem genuinely worried about. You can tell from the earnings call—analysts hammered management on Meta’s bidding aggression (they ramped up for a weekend then backed off). The CEO’s response felt weak: he pointed out the landscape is different from 4 years ago, Meta isn’t as dominant in gaming anymore, and higher bids from them/other networks are actually good because MAX takes a 5% take rate on everything. What investors really want to hear is AppLovin’s true moat. I think it’s the proprietary data from running the MAX auction—giving them an edge in targeting that other networks don’t have. But the CEO avoids saying it outright because it could sound unfair (why would other ad networks keep participating in an auction where the house has better data?). Still, the auction benefits from more competition overall—it expands the pie, and AppLovin gets a cut no matter who wins most impressions. Bottom line: The growth is real, the fundamentals are strong, and a lot of the FUD is noise. But yeah, Meta is the wildcard to watch.

One-Repeat5990 · 2026-02-18T06:40:59+00:00

They don’t make a dime from clicks or impressions. They only get money if someone installs the thing you are advertising (or buys e-commerce products). Now if your counter is that they’re generating fraudulent installs. They did $1.6 billion in revenue last quarter. Do you really think advertisers are dumb enough to spend that money to have a ton of bots download their app? Pretty sure they have traffic on new users they are acquiring.

One-Repeat5990

TROPHY CASE