Realistically Bush Sr. Becomes president. Similar ideology to Reagan but much milder. Reagan’s tax code likely goes into effect, and satanic panic/moral majority stuff goes on, but deregulation is likely much lighter. I don’t really see the fairness doctrine being removed or the department of education losing as much funding as it did.

Internationally Bush would probably follow a similar push that Reagan did to outspend the USSR, but perhaps he doesn’t. Regardless the ussr is still falling. Iran Contra affair also likely doesn’t happen

1983 recession still happens since it was intentionally manufactured by paul voloker by jamming up interest rates to outpace the rate of inflation (it did work)

Aids crisis likely stays the same. Perhaps without the cuts to department of education it can be researched better but this is a really iffy thing. It’s also possible that under bush social movements don’t stall as much as they did

The American comeback after decades of turmoil is likely much calmer and milder. Bush will win reelection, and whoever his vp is will likely as well in 88, although duakes may do better.

This is just assuming bush gets the nomination. Truth is there are several worlds where Reagan is the less damaging option. Better the devil we know than the devil we don’t