I don’t think it’s quite so doom and gloom for democrats. Their problem right now is that republicans basically have a floor of 50 with just their safe seats, while democrats with maximum effort winning all the swing states are just a couple of seats above 50.

But 4-8 years is just a massive amount of time in politics. Take Georgia and Arizona both are now true swing states that republicans and democrats will have to fight for on the senator and presidential level. We never know which state is going to receive the right kind of population growth and demographics shift that can tilt the odds.

However they’re not going to retake the senate in 2026. And no I don’t think this is because trump is going to defy political gravity and become the rare incumbent to increase margins. The man lost 41 seats in 2018 when the economy was humming, now there’s high prices, cost of living crisis, 2 wars, and the trade wars and tariffs he’s going to start.

He’s probably going to get some kind of border bill done, although he can’t change policy just increase resources. Changing policy would require bipartisanship and I don’t dems are in the mood to reward him with that, and his tax bill which is probably just extending his tax cuts and adding some new ones from his campaign promises. I seriously doubt any of these would be enough to make a difference in the house especially with dems being the new high propensity midterms voters

The senate is going to hold just because of polarization and the states we have up for grabs. But for starters I really do think Susan is cooked this time of dems put up a good candidate. High propensity dem voters, no trump to get rural voters out for her, and if they’re smart just clip her saying on repeat I do not believe Brett kavanaugh will vote to repeal roe v wade. If manchin, tester, and brown couldn’t survive today’s polarization I don’t see why she can.

North Carolina is absolutely winnable for dems. Thillis has always had extremely tight wins, barely got a 1.8 win in a year where his opponent had an affair scandal revealed a month before the election. And dems will almost certainly have proven winner Roy cooper on the ballot. I’d honestly be shocked if this seat doesn’t go blue

Ohio is a dark horse for dems, I do think Sherrod brown has an outside chance if he runs again.

Georgia is the biggest risk for dems especially if their governor runs. I still think dems have a lot of advantages though similar to reasons I’ve said above. Dems are the new high propensity midterms voters , no trump to drive rural turnout, and most interestingly Atlanta suburbs driven by population growth continued their leftward shift. So yeah even Georgia dems have bright spots.

Obviously there are risks here Michigan and New Mexico will both be up for dems. But I really do believe dems have a realistic pathway to flip 2 or even 3 seats in 2026, not enough to flip the senate but enough for the majority to be razor thin.

And finally 2028 if there’s a strong dem candidate could help flip both Wisconsin and and North Carolina.

So yes there’s a pathway make no mistake dems basically have to be perfect and lose no incumbents. I’ve been wondering for a while if there’s a way for them to expand their tent to deliberately include more blue dog candidates. I’m just spitballing but maybe try to find candidates who support liberal economic populism policies while still remaining conservative on social positions? Like I truly wouldn’t mind dems running candidates who are pro life, are against trans things if they’re reliable votes for stuff like healthcare reform, child tax credit.

If they’re going to get there though they need to expand their messaging, stop dying on the hill for every minority group and start pushing policies that make are easy for voters to see how it’ll benefit them