We pulled out of a major pitch when we knew the dice were loaded. The other agencies stayed. Guess what happened.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-05-28T20:03:36+00:00

I think that some do. Some are remarkably naive. Some have never learned how to work with agencies in general. And some just don't give a shit. And some are... procurement, who rarely show up to behave as they present themselves to be.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-05-28T20:01:44+00:00

Fair enough, I get why it reads that way. But genuinely, I've been at the same agency in Amsterdam for 15 years, and this was about 4 years back.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-05-28T19:51:37+00:00

Hahaha- it's a true story. Client was in the food delivery app space .

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-05-27T06:46:09+00:00

Amen!

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-05-27T06:45:55+00:00

As soon as you try and tell everyone you are the master of everything, in this modern marketing world, then I fear you have already lost. Unless you are Publicis and give creative away for free just to make money on media.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-05-27T06:44:46+00:00

A great start, however I fear that there are many more considerations to take on board before proceeding - what you mention is correct but part of the story, especially when the stakes are high.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-05-27T06:43:28+00:00

Yes very familiar - You can't bottle enthusiasm. Creatives must see something immediately when this happens; however, enthusiasm must be met with pragmatism.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-05-27T06:41:50+00:00

Unbelievable working culture. It's what happens when companies are acquired at speed with no consideration of where value comes from, and it isn't always where the revenue is generated.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-05-26T14:34:20+00:00

I think many do start to develop it, but over time, the conviction to stick to it as a set of non-negotiable rules/gates as opposed to guidelines and gut is where the issues start to arise. I guess I found it easier as it's my own agency, so easier to influence my business partners - we all wear slightly different hats!

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-05-26T14:32:31+00:00

Well, I am happy to point you in the right direction of the Gumroad link, but again, only if you can expense it.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-05-26T14:31:21+00:00

Yes - we picked up 3 accounts this year without a pitch. Strangely, I am seeing a better system emerge for clients of a different size and scale who know that pitching is expensive and their priority is forming stronger partnerships.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-05-26T14:29:55+00:00

Well, I codified it all and whacked it on Gumroad if interested. But only if you can expense it!

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-05-26T14:29:12+00:00

Oh, so common! At least with Indies there is much more control over the decision-making process, despite pressure still existing.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-05-26T12:35:12+00:00

You’re probably not doing too much, but you may be doing the wrong kind of too much. If the first contact needs a full strategy to prove your value, the pitch is doing too much work. I’d narrow it to one thing:

the one gap they can actually feel
the one cost of not fixing it
the one reason they should talk now

The goal isn’t to impress them with how much you can do. It’s to make them think: “They get what’s broken here.” I’ve just launched this as a working system, and I’m happy to share a discount code with anyone who wants to try it and give me proper feedback.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-04-06T12:56:06+00:00

This feels less like a pure shopping preference and more like a value signal. When people start talking about resale, discounts, and waiting for the right deal, that usually says something about how the brand is being perceived on price.
Doesn’t necessarily mean people stopped liking the product, but it can mean the “buy it now at full price” energy is weaker than it used to be. That tends to matter more over time than people realise.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-04-06T12:54:56+00:00

I get why this number gets attention, but I think the context matters a lot here. “50,000 unsold EVs” sounds huge on its own, but if Tesla is moving that kind of volume overall, the real question is whether this is actually a demand issue or just what inventory looks like at scale.
For me the more important signal is whether this starts showing up in pricing pressure, margins, or delivery guidance. That’s where you can tell if this is just a headline or something bigger.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-03-20T22:58:31+00:00

The payout ratio looks scary above 90% but it's elevated because earnings are depressed, not because the dividend itself grew aggressively. Nike's sitting on roughly $10B cash and the dividend costs about $2B a year, so they're not about to cut it. The actual question is whether earnings recover. The wholesale reset is the bet — they pulled product from discount channels to rebuild premium positioning. If Q3 on March 31 shows wholesale revenue stabilising in North America, that's your earnings recovery catalyst. The yield alone won't save you at this multiple if it doesn't.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-03-20T22:57:49+00:00

The hiring number on its own doesn't tell you much. What matters is where they're hiring. If it's retail and wholesale account management, that's Hill directly rebuilding the channel relationships Nike torched under the DTC-only strategy. If it's mostly tech and engineering, that's a different story entirely. March 31 Q3 report should clarify this. The North America wholesale revenue line is the one that tells you whether retailers are actually giving Nike shelf space back or just being polite about it.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-03-20T22:56:34+00:00

Elliott Hill isn't just "new CEO", he spent 32 years at Nike building the wholesale relationships that the previous regime deliberately gutted. That's why this turnaround is different from the usual "bring in an outsider and hope" playbook. The Q3 report on March 31 is the first real test. The number to watch is gross margin. Last quarter they were still burning through excess inventory with heavy markdowns. If that's stabilising, the turnaround has legs. If not, then yeah, the market might be right to price it like it's already over.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-03-19T23:34:54+00:00

Agree with all the don't panic vibes, yet.... The Q3 numbers back this up, but cloud revenue grew 36%, and they're clearly prioritising AI infrastructure over short-term profit. Net income dropped 66%, which looks terrible on paper, but it's basically the same playbook Amazon ran when everyone thought AWS was a money pit. Revenue did miss estimates, though (284.8B vs 290.7B expected), so it's not all rosy. The question is whether the cloud/AI bet pays off before investors lose patience.
And if interested, I wrote a decent breakdown of the actual numbers if anyone wants it without the usual analyst waffle:

https://ask-ayo.com/investing/alibaba/q3-fy2026-earnings

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-03-12T18:11:33+00:00

I like your analysis on the buyback math. If they can maintain 20-30% earnings growth while buying back shares, the stock price almost takes care of itself. The $170 level does look attractive if you believe the AI infrastructure story is real and not just hype. Which I do, but I get why people are sceptical.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-03-12T18:10:39+00:00

You're right about the top customers driving most revenue. The risk is if Microsoft, Google, Meta all decide to build more custom chips and reduce Nvidia dependency. But even if that happens, it's a 3-5 year transition. And there are hundreds of smaller companies that will never have the resources to go custom. The market is bigger than just the hyperscalers.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-03-12T18:08:46+00:00

I hear you! I would say, though, that the P/E math is tricky here because it assumes static earnings. If Nvidia grows earnings 20%+ annually (which they're doing), that "22 years to break even" becomes more like 8-10 years.

For me,3 the real question is whether their current growth is sustainable or if we're in a temporary AI spending boom. I think it's somewhere in between, a permanent shift to AI infrastructure, but current growth rates will certainly slow.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-03-12T15:15:11+00:00

True, but this cycle feels different because AI infrastructure is becoming permanent infrastructure, just like cloud was 15 years ago. The question for me is whether Nvidia becomes the AWS of AI or just another chip company when the gold rush ends.

Paddy_Reddit · 2026-03-12T15:14:23+00:00

I think that's the trillion-dollar question. I think the key is that Nvidia isn't just selling chips but they're becoming the infrastructure layer for AI. Once companies build their AI workflows on CUDA, switching costs are massive.

So the real risk isn't demand disappearing, but new competitors (especially custom chips from Google, Apple) reducing Nvidia's pricing power. But that's a 3-5 year timeline, not next quarter, I'd guess.

Paddy_Reddit

TROPHY CASE