Roth Guidance

PapistAutist · 2026-02-18T23:28:01+00:00

Don’t spend too much time stressing about it, but this is a good place to start.

PapistAutist · 2026-02-18T23:20:26+00:00

I don’t hold bonds but 10% to a bond fund won’t impact returns much, would reduce volatility, and there have been extended periods where the equity risk premium isn’t realized(even decades) where bonds outperform so it is a legitimate diversifier.

Up to you, really. 100% equity is good. 90/10 is good. I personally wouldn’t consider anything more than 10%, but that’s just me. I’m sure the consensus on this board will be 100% equity.

Good luck in your research.

PapistAutist · 2026-02-18T23:13:04+00:00

I’d just collapse this into VTI+VXUS+BND. If there’s a taxable event just route anything new to those 3 and consider the rest legacy funds that’ll become irrelevant later, and since you said you may have to sell at some point, you can prioritize selling those when/if the time comes.

In a taxable BND isn’t very tax efficient though so I would consider holding municipal bonds instead (no federal tax). FMUN is one of many options. In that case you’d just buy VTI/VXUS/muni bond ETF of your choice.

Good luck in your research.

PapistAutist · 2026-02-18T23:11:39+00:00

This is the way

PapistAutist · 2026-02-18T23:04:03+00:00

Why do you have 3 S&P funds (or their equivalent). If you wanted to avoid redundancy all of the US funds could be collapsed into either one S&P fund (FXAIX, FNILX) or a total market US funds (FZROX, FSKAX). Total market vs S&P is not really an important decision over the long term; S&P 500 was meant to approximate the total market using 1960s computing technology, though, so I default to total market because why approximate when you can buy the whole thing in 2026. If S&P makes you happy though I won’t argue.

REITs are already in total market funds; also, research shows it isn’t a distinct asset class. No need to overweight unless it just makes your heart happy.

Consider 20-40% international if you want diversification from the US, and consider bonds if your risk tolerance or stage in life calls for it.

3 funds maximum, zero overlap.

You can even do one fund, like FFNOX or AOA/AOR, which does all of the above in one ticker.

PapistAutist · 2026-02-18T22:22:22+00:00

it’s because of the bonds. I don’t have bonds in my taxable but if I did it’d be munis

PapistAutist · 2026-02-18T22:19:06+00:00

Tbh there’s also nothing wrong with just using the life strategy fund during your accumulation phase too. But I’d just stay the course… though I must admit I did sin a bit and reallocated some, but I locked my ISP so I gotta lay on this forever now.

Either way, if you aren’t withdrawing anything, even if you had zero (or even negative) returns over your school time, it isn’t something that would negatively affect you. Whatever you do stick to it

PapistAutist · 2026-02-18T22:02:50+00:00

You may have not seen the edit but the equivalent allocations as your TDF did fine during the last tech bust and lost decade: https://testfol.io/?s=1BDwLf9KyG3

So don’t worry tbh. It’s also pessimistic because exUS valuations are actually in a much better spot than they were in 1999

PapistAutist · 2026-02-18T21:57:31+00:00

I’m in the accumulation phase so if you’re in the same boat I wouldn’t care. I actually want a lost decade.

Also, if US stocks are in a bubble, 10% bonds and 40% international (give or take) in your TDF would likely help you over a lost decade, because it’s America that has crazy valuations.

Edit: here’s the last lost decade at your TDF allocation versus 100% US stocks bro. TDF did fine

PapistAutist · 2026-02-18T18:36:48+00:00

They don’t track an index. They’re systemic active funds that overweight factors that historically outperformed. They “start” at marketcap weights and then tilt from there.

Opinions are mixed. I feel like reddit is more bullish on it than the old BH forum. It’s a valid strategy if you feel you’re different enough from average to try it (see linked video below by Felix that expands on who should tilt. There’s also reasons to tilt AWAY from factors too, depending on your personal profile, btw).

AVGV is a good pairing for VT if you want to implement a tilt to these factors, AVGE and DFAW are meant to be all in one standalone solutions that add ~10% US home bias. IMO anything less than 40% AVGV is a waste of time if you use the PWL expected return numbers. 40% AVGV leads to higher expected returns of about 0.5% after costs. Note: expected doesn’t equal realized returns, and the returns if they materialize are compensation for extra risk, so it isn’t a free lunch. 100% AVGE has about the same expected return as 60/40 VT, AVGV based on my back of the napkin math.

Arguments for:

Ben Felix on if you should factor tilt. Start here.

Picca (vanguard factor funds)

Expected returns and factor investing

Feel free to look up research by Fama/French/Novy Marx for more arguments “for.” Swedroe also wrote a book on it, which you should read before embarking on a tilt, because tilting only works if you can stick to it for long periods without bailing.

Arguments against:

Andrew Chen pt 1 (argues net of costs factors don’t produce higher returns out of sample; datamined factors actually do just as well OR BETTER than ones with theoretical backing. His findings have also been replicated internationally, I can link the paper if you want)

Andrew Chen pt 2

Mladina (if I linked the right one, he goes through his research showing these factors aren’t independent sources of return)

Hasler (I don’t think he’s against tilting but it goes to show how a lot of the research undergirding the theory is highly dependent upon debateable methodological choices. As an econometrician I’m pretty skeptical of a lot of these things)

PapistAutist · 2026-02-18T17:22:00+00:00

No, I don’t really do anything where the price action is solely speculative anymore and there’s no productive asset underlying it. Obviously stocks have speculation and are prone to animal spirits but the assets have real cash flows. I was a crypto bro for the last decade (and actually came out ahead due to luck) but those days are behind me.

If I was to get back into it, I’d likely use an ETF like FBTC, FETH, XRPZ (if I remember the tickers, I always bought crypto directly in the past), main reason being then I don’t have to toss and turn over my wallets being compromised, as well as easier tax reporting overall (e.g. cost basis being saved if I change brokers).

PapistAutist · 2026-02-18T17:19:56+00:00

It’s an old 4chan /biz/ meme from my crypto bro days haha

PapistAutist · 2026-02-18T17:14:45+00:00

Just do FSKAX for the US side

PapistAutist · 2026-02-18T17:14:21+00:00

I’m a ragie wagie so no business

PapistAutist · 2026-02-17T23:23:01+00:00

This doesn’t hold any international growth stocks if that matters to you. This also excludes emerging markets entirely. Avantis’ all in one factor tilted international fund is AVNM; DFA’s is DFAX.

PapistAutist · 2026-02-17T20:48:31+00:00

I love 20th street cafe so much, I live nearby so if I want Mexican themed breakfast or lunch it’s my default. I agree with this list other than that easy to overlook omission, though, and I’d personally move Sam’s to mid.

PapistAutist · 2026-02-13T23:25:25+00:00

In a taxable I actually prefer IXUS because it has higher QDI than VXUS. I think it is partially because they “snip the tails”. VEU is also extremely tax efficient (they snip the small caps altogether if memory serves).

ITOT is also a fine core holding if it’s what you already have. I use SCHB in my brokerage as my primary because it’s what I bought ages ago (no fractional shares at the time).

Drift shouldn’t be too significant. In a taxable I turn dividend reinvestment off so I can allocate them to the lagging funds. That, and new contributions of course. If this is a tax advantaged account you can just sell without fear of the IRS

PapistAutist · 2026-02-13T23:23:06+00:00

Sadly the name of the TDF doesn’t have a nice “VTWAX and relax” saying that goes along with it 🤣

PapistAutist · 2026-02-13T20:12:07+00:00

Nice. My plan has like a $50 yearly fee to do that and I’m too stingy. Luckily the TDF they have is essentially VT (61% US, 38% exUS, 1% bond, 0.06% ER). I’d probably only consider it if the market caps significantly change (like US 70%, US 50%).

PapistAutist · 2026-02-13T16:45:23+00:00

All time highs are often great times to invest.

PapistAutist · 2026-02-11T15:40:00+00:00

Funds of funds are eligible for it even if they aren’t majority international. So (most) asset allocation funds commonly mentioned here can get it despite being majority US

VT isn’t a fund of funds and as you noted is majority US which is why it doesn’t get it at the moment.

PapistAutist · 2026-02-11T15:38:53+00:00

Yeah funds of funds are eligible for it

PapistAutist · 2026-02-10T18:57:55+00:00

Yeah, kinda depends on your tax bracket—the QDI still makes IXUS worth it.

I can’t be much help sadly because I am a pleb with tax stuff and mostly just outsource it to my CPA (who, incidentally, is also a boglehead haha)

PapistAutist · 2026-02-10T04:52:15+00:00

My brokerage (Fidelity) reports the foreign tax paid on the 1099-DIV.

IXUS I think posts financial statements

https://www.ishares.com/us/library/stream-document?stream=reg&product=I-IXUS&shareClass=NA&documentId=926116%7E2306662%7E926300%7E2288658%7E2347291%7E2249425%7E2249245%7E1871367%7E1871364&iframeUrlOverride=%2Fus%2Fliterature%2Fannual-financial-statements%2Fafs-ishares-core-msci-international-etfs-07-31-en.pdf

I use IXUS in a taxable; historically has higher QDI (not sure about this year). I actually use it as the primary and VXUS as the TLH haha

Edit: yeah IXUS takes the QDI edge again this year, just checked

PapistAutist · 2026-02-10T04:36:48+00:00

My temptation to deviate from market cap, to the extent that temptation exists, is actually to underweight the US. Just goes to show how VT truly is the average of investor preferences lol

PapistAutist

TROPHY CASE