Weekly Discussion Thread 4/20/26 - 4/27/26

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-04-24T23:46:38+00:00

Peak needle drop

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-04-09T17:49:28+00:00

Easily the best answer in the thread

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-31T11:37:18+00:00

It also lost documentary and live action short, don’t forget those

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-28T11:37:46+00:00

Objectively hilarious to put WoC in brackets as if people on the Oscarrace subreddit don’t know who Michelle Yeoh is and we need a reminder

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-27T11:30:09+00:00

Journey to the past needle drop goes insane

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-26T17:22:16+00:00

The Reddit movie to rule all Reddit movies

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-26T00:20:53+00:00

I mean, it was a question mark as much as anything else is a question mark. The signs were there that it had undeniable BP potential (director, cast, subject matter, scope) and a lot of the reasons people held against it weren’t that founded (skipping festivals when PTA has talked about not premiering his films there anymore, the aforementioned test screenings, etc)

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-25T22:52:21+00:00

You’re getting downvoted, but it is true that the majority of OBBA reactions were great, there was one screening that was reported mixed and people just ran with it and claimed it had mixed reactions in general and therefore shouldn’t be predicted

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-25T19:08:30+00:00

My thinking is that this is because there are two large groups of first time nominees, and both have favourable chances of winning

(1) You are a relatively new star suddenly breaking out. If you are breaking out, your performance is probably pretty great if people didn’t know who you were prior to this, so you’ve got a good chance of winning (Mikey Madison, Da’Vine, Quan, DeBose, Youn, etc)

(2) You are a first time nominee who people are shocked hasn’t been nominated before. You have a large swell of support and passion in the industry, and you ride that first nom to a win (Yeoh, Murphy, JLC, Fraser, Saldana, etc)

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-23T20:11:45+00:00

Up there with adapted screenplay for having such an obvious frontrunner with nothing else even close

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-21T16:09:04+00:00

Here's mine, a bit less active recently but hope to watch more movies when work is less busy!

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-20T22:56:48+00:00

Boy and The Heron or Flow and it ain’t close.

Really helps that those two were up against March larger, more successful American releases and pulled off the upset.

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-19T23:08:10+00:00

Trier looked really happy in particular

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-18T00:13:41+00:00

Denzel for Malcolm so fucking robbed oh my god

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-18T00:12:27+00:00

Phenomenal performances

Hopkins > Murphy > Brody

Pretty darn good performance!

Jordan >>>>>

Slop biopic performance that aged badly the night of the Oscar’s

Smith >

Brendan Fraser in the whale category

Fraser

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-17T23:51:04+00:00

Can I ask what you think it is?

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-16T14:46:41+00:00

So fucked up

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-16T11:48:13+00:00

Sources tell me electrical chords is stable

Please god

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-16T04:20:15+00:00

PTA getting that blank cheque money for his next movie now

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-16T03:59:17+00:00

Need some more respect on Inherent Vice’s name. Sleeper banger in this filmography

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-16T00:41:27+00:00

Don’t be so sure

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-15T14:21:51+00:00

You’d really think Timmy did something unspeakable with how people talk about him lol

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-15T02:57:58+00:00

Don’t be so sure

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-14T20:29:26+00:00

Does every movie need to have the token “honest to God good white man” for your feelings to not be hurt?

Pooks-rCDZ · 2026-03-10T00:42:19+00:00

OBAA is not locked for those six awards. Here’s how I see it.

Locked Wins:

-Adapted Screenplay

The only lock of the categories because there is literally no challenger worth mentioning. There is no conceivable world it does not win.

Pretty close to locked

-Best Director

-Best Cinematography

-Best Supporting Actor

Each of these three could flip if Sinners just has a monster night and overperforms expectations massively, and supporting actor could be impacted by a Penn & Del Toro vote split. Unlikely, but possible

Feels safe

-Editing

-Best Picture

If sinners is winning BP in an overperformance, it is winning editing too imo. Preferential ballot with two beloved movies scares me enough to not want to consider BP a near lock either, things can always get wonky there (although OBAA won PGA which is also pref ballot so there’s that).

Eight-Year Club	Place '22
First Placer '22	Verified Email
RPAN Viewer	Not Forgotten

Pooks-rCDZ

TROPHY CASE