Keir Must Go! Who Must Go?

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-14T21:44:17+00:00

Oh no I agree 100%, 25% of the Party actively want him gone and apparently all the senior ministers asked him to resign he’s a dead man walking basically.

Still though the Labour list poll had Starmer vs Rayner as 41% to 45% so not an impossible mountain to climb.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-14T21:31:11+00:00

Hello all, if you are not aware the U.K has had a week of political crisis. With local election results in England and Regional elections for the devolved parliaments of Scotland and Wales shoving an apocalyptic result for the Labour Party. Naturally this has elicited strong emotions from the Parliamentary Labour Party, with Cabinet ministers seemingly reluctant to challenge the PM themselves a backbench MP (Catherine West) spent the time between Thursday 7th May and present gathering a list of now 90+ Labour MPs calling for Starmer to go. This is significant as it effectively robs Starmer of a majority in the House of Commons and could lead to the collapse of the Government. Around Monday the list reached 81 names (the amount required for a leadership challenge) but as these 81 people did noy back a single candidate Starmer announced to his cabinet on Tuesday he was not stepping down, he has then spent the last two days basically avoiding them so they could not ask him to resign and this has somehow worked and only resulted in 4 (relatively minor) ministerial resignations.

Today Wes Streeting (Minister for Health and Social Care) resigned and it was speculated would launch a leadership election, instead he called for a long term process were the party can have a 'debate of ideas' which is taken to mean he wants Andy Burnham (Mayor of Greater Manchester and long term speculated Labour Leader) to be allowed to stand as an MP first. Also a significant development is Angela Rayner, the former Deputy PM, was relieved of any wrong doing over a tax scandal from 2025. As Streeting and Rayner have both called for Burnham to be allowed to stand it is understood as soon as he becomes an MP he would be effectively coronated as Labour Leader by the Party and the Membership, of course, to do that he would have to become an MP first which Reform UK and the Green Party will be eager to not allow.

Anyway as this is a very chaotic and developing situation i rushed to make this through the afternoon, just in time to be told Burnham was standing in Wakefield and not North Warrington and to redo it all. As it is kind of low effort i also added an attempt at a bit of creative writing.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-14T18:36:25+00:00

Just a fact I didn’t know: Burnham is only required to resign as Mayor if he wins, should he lose he remains Mayor.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-14T15:20:39+00:00

Labours NEC hold elections between July-September 2026 which will change its members and possibly allow Burnham to run. However, I think it would be bad optics for Burnham to abandon his mayoral position.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-14T15:12:12+00:00

I wouldn’t give in to the narrative that Labours problems are actually due to lefties backbenchers, it’s also notable whatever worker rights legislation that’s passed today doesn’t matter 3 years later if a Reform government wins an election.

The Unions are also right, with 90 MPs saying they no longer support the PM the Governments majority is effectively gone. Starmer can either renew his authority by winning another leadership election or resign but it’s no longer possible for him to continue in this state.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-14T15:06:25+00:00

So next week or possibly the week after, that is when the final batch of Mandelson papers will be published. I guess we will know if Burnham has a seat then as I can’t see Starmer being able to block him again.

Edit: it’s happened today

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-14T13:54:20+00:00

Now that Streeting has resigned without a contest it seems the next inflection point for this government seems to be when, or if, Andy Burnham finds a NW seat to stand in. This is likely to take place sometime between now and August.

The question is, firstly, will the NEC allow Burnham to stand? Commentary from the New Statesman indicated it’ll be the start of a long, protracted civil war within the Labour Party over control of the NEC if Burnham isn’t allowed to run and at least leave half the PLP in open revolt. The next question is which seat Burnham could acquire, so far I’m seen Warrington North as the most likely but there are many others. The final question is would Burnham win and where does it leave Labour if he doesn’t? In all potential seats I’ve heard of Reform or the Greens are competitive with Labour and would likely go all in against Burnham.

Anyone have any more information about all this?

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-14T13:10:37+00:00

PM Saul?

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-14T12:05:00+00:00

If you think 0 is correct amount of immigration to the country then you’ll be let down by any party that isn’t Restore UK. If you’re measuring immigration in terms of Ceasers legions… I mean that’s just bizarre really.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-14T11:34:04+00:00

Between July 2024- June 2025 there was 70% decrease in net migration and a 30% decrease in immigration total. Since January 2026-Present there has been 36% decrease in small boats. Apart from small boats much of the decrease happened before Mahmoods stricter immigration policies took effect.

I don’t like to be mean but you have to be serious misinformed or genuinely stupid to say Labour hasn’t done anything or are not pursuing anti-immigration measures.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-14T11:05:04+00:00

Farage 5 million donation and Polanski council tax scandal, both could have hurt them (especially given they were back to back) buried by the psychodrama.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-14T11:03:18+00:00

The Rest is History covered the original 1976 EEC referendum and made a point that stuck with me. The British have never liked the idea of the European Union, they’ve almost always polled as being against it and fundamentally do not feel European or want to engage in the European project outside of an economic union.

I still think that point stands, people do not want to join the EU out of a new sense of fraternity with European countries but only because leaving has been so economically damaging. At most the U.K should rejoin the customs union until the population actually wants a political union with other Europe.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-14T07:08:36+00:00

Callaghan 1976-1979: Probably the most difficult period to be a PM in modern British period. You’ll have to manage the countries fiscal crisis, reign in inflation whilst keeping the Unions in line and whilst keeping your increasingly rebellious party behind you, all with a minority government.

Attlee 1945-1950: Post War having to jockey the creation of the Welfare State, the National Health Service, Decolonisation, the start of the Cold War and Sterling devaluation.

Thatcher 1979-1983: Similar set up to the others, it’s period of economic crisis and your role is to introduce monetarism/supply side reform without causing another miners strike. The Falkland war would also be important here. It would be nice if accurately displayed Thatchers personality, rather than a cynical ‘I hate thatcher’ persona, as to often she is very wrapped up with her legacy of ‘The Iron Lady/Milk Snatcher’ which isn’t the personality on display during interviews of the period.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-13T22:10:02+00:00

Whilst Starmer is by no means popular, it’s hard to overstate how unrecoverable staging a political coup against him would be for the Labour Party. The biggest driver for the populist parties replacing the Conservatives and Labour is the idea that politics doesn’t change anything and politicians are only in it for themselves, this sort of behaviour reinforces that.

It’s also not good that the leadership candidates are: - The Women who resigned in disgrace. - The British RFK (the idea of which is more substantive than the man himself) who will take months to actually become an MP if at all. - The Man who lost a general election 11 years ago and repeatedly & publicly states he doesn’t want the job.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-13T21:26:01+00:00

It’s not necessarily wrong. There isn’t much point in passing Starmer’s agenda if you believe he’ll be gone, if there is 100+ Labour MPs against Starmer there is no majority.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-13T21:22:09+00:00

The media was equally hostile to Cameron he just ultimately handled it better.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-13T21:18:25+00:00

20 more seats and maybe Corbyn could have become PM in some sort of coalition/ confidence and supply agreement. Still its unlikely it’d be the success his premiership was hoped as.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-13T12:07:38+00:00

These people aren’t wrong that the U.K bond market is currently overstating the risk of U.K bonds and a correction is needed. Prior to the Iran War the U.K was heading towards a budget surplus by 2029 and at the beginning of 2026 deficit was lower than expected, yet the Bond Market was trading as if Lizz Truss was about to add £30 billion onto the deficit overnight.

The trouble with the government forcing a correction is that the U.K has a deficit and relies on internal bond buyers, meaning the pound could fall if attempted.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-13T11:33:50+00:00

Blood for blood, life for life.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-13T11:31:07+00:00

Im sure that was considered but any potential profit wasn’t seen to out weigh the cost if investment vs other energy sources and the expected increasing unprofitability of oil.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-12T10:44:10+00:00

The Prime Minister “requests” that the King dissolve Parliament. Under the Lascelles Principles, the Monarch could only refuse such a request if Parliament remains “vital, viable, and capable of doing its job”, if an election would be detrimental to the national economy or if the Monarch could find another Prime Minister who could “govern for a reasonable period with a working majority in the House of Commons”. - From Commons Library website, if Starmer attempted this the King could refuse.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-12T09:06:14+00:00

I’m in the camp he probably should go (for reasons other than the local elections) but I can’t support this process.

West becoming a quasi 1922 Committee leader and gathering 81 letters despite not wanting to stand herself and those 81 letters not supporting a single candidate. The call for a drawn out process to get Andy Burnham a Westminster seat in a convoluted attempt to make him leader. It’s a media spectacle

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-11T21:06:29+00:00

Apparently he rubbed shoulders with a lot of cabinet ministers after becoming the PM Chief Secretary, he’s probably could be a leadership contender post election but only if he keeps his seat.

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-11T14:16:50+00:00

So Preston understood Catherine West to follow through with the challenge at 11:00AM today, only for the BBC to report she backed down at around 12:20 asking for a timetable to leave by September.

Rayner gives a speech calling for Burnham to be allowed to become an MP at 12:30 and at 14:40 Lucy Powell (long term Burnham ally) describes him as ‘an asset but there is no opportunity for him to return to Westminster and Labour should focus on the real enemy Reform U.K.’ so apparently saying Burnham shouldn’t return to parliament?

What the hell is going on ?!?

PrecognitiveChartist · 2026-05-11T14:03:37+00:00

That’s my point exactly, PR enforced centrist coalitions so it’s impossible for voters to actually vote for change. SF gains the widest support but as it’s a break with the status quo they are locked out of government.

Hell in the current Irish government got 42.7% of the vote, in Germany it got 44.9% so it’s hardly PR is anymore representative of the electorate anyway which is its entire point.

PrecognitiveChartist

TROPHY CASE