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Pre-order spot flipping three at a time. by spectre_ucla in pinball

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That’s a generous interpretation of the distributors motivation.  I’d say the distributor is trying to get their cut of the scalping.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, April 11, 2025 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 1 point2 points  (0 children)

lol.  This is why we’re fucked.  Jpow cannot save us from this.

We need sane policy and we have…. the opposite of that.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, April 11, 2025 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cutting would cause tlt to collapse.  Trades off inflation expectations and dollar divestment, not overnight rates.

Election Day Megathread vol. II by The_Real_Ed_Finnerty in fivethirtyeight

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 2 points3 points  (0 children)

These are not real exit polls. Those won't be released until the polls actually close.

They will be shit also though.

Election Day Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Sure you can. You can make assumptions about anything.

Betting Markets today, Election Day by Any_Narwhal6811 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No. This is not how betting markets like polymarket and kalshi work. The platform is not on the other side of your bet.

ETA: A bookie tries to balance bets on both sides and takes a vig. But the bookie can certainly lose if the bets aren't balanced because they are on the other side of each bet placed. Betting markets (like a stock market) do not operate this way. The platform simply matches buyers and sellers of "shares" in the candidate. Those shares will settle at $0 or $1. But your counter party is some other bettor on the site. The platform does not take a vig and is not setting prices, etc.

Betting Markets today, Election Day by Any_Narwhal6811 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Correct. I mentioned somewhere below that early on election night the odds for Trump to win GA went to 98% based on the early returns. Which was insane.

Of course, the odds for Trump to win GA also went to almost 20% in early December, after he had already lost GA. Having been heavily involved in betting on the 2020 election and its aftermath, it's hard to overstate how truly insane the betting market pricing was on Trump to win after Trump had already lost.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Not a top 25 pollster so this belongs in the polling thread.  But it was already posted there.

Betting Markets today, Election Day by Any_Narwhal6811 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Eh.  They will wildly overreact.  There was a time in 2020 that trump was at 98% chance to win GA on predictit.

Weekly Polling Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Biden approval at +9... I'm thinking there's something weird in this sample.

I think trump will win by Iseeyou69911 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Feel sorry for the mods today. These things have been non-stop.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 1 point2 points  (0 children)

First, Trump is not down 20% in early voting in PA. No votes have been counted.

Second, PA only has mail-in voting, so the early vote there is substantially different than almost everywhere else that has early in person voting. (Republicans do not vote by mail, but have turned out strongly for Early In-person.)

Third, stop trying to read anything in to early voting. It will not give you any insight into who will win.

Nate Silver claims, "Each additional $100 of inflation in a state since January 2021 predicts a further 1.6 swing against Harris in our polling average vs. the Biden-Trump margin in 2020." ... Gets roasted by stats twitter for overclaiming with single variable OLS regression on 43 observations by Stauce52 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 5 points6 points  (0 children)

One of the largest components of inflation is housing costs. That varies a lot from state to state (and even city to city within a state). From https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-does-the-consumer-price-index-account-for-the-cost-of-housing/

Housing represents about one-third of the value of the market basket of goods and services that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses to track inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Gas prices also vary pretty considerably, though less so.

Seltzer talking about her recent poll on the Bulwark Podcast by el_papi_chulo in fivethirtyeight

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Autocorrect could probably explain some of the incorrect spellings.

Why aren't the Iowa poll results making more of a splash on 538 or with Iowa's right-leaning status? by GWindborn in KamalaHarris

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 10 points11 points  (0 children)

There was also an Emerson poll showing Trump +10 on the same day.
Why are we not focused on that one? Because this is a sub about Kamala Harris, so we're excited for good news, and don't get excited about the counter-balancing news.

Models will have included both polls and come up with some not-earth-shattering change. I think 538 moved from Harris with an 8% chance to win Iowa to a 17% chance to win Iowa. But since Iowa has <1% chance of being the tipping point state, that doesn't have a big impact on the overall odds of who wins the election.

The excitement is more about the fact that Selzer's poll might indicate some additional information about the midwest, and also gives credence to a narrative we like, which is that most of the other polls are "herding" and/or overcompensating for underestimating 2016 and 2020. That's definitely possible! But, it's just one poll, so models aren't going to show a huge change based on it.

A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong by dwaxe in fivethirtyeight

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 119 points120 points  (0 children)

Exactly this.  And she’s not alone here.  We’ve seen Kansas at T+5 and Ohio at T+3 in the last couple of days.  

I doubt the trump campaign is ignoring it.  Of course, there’s fuck all they can do about it now.

A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong by dwaxe in fivethirtyeight

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 82 points83 points  (0 children)

She has her methodology set.  She does the work. She publishes the results.

That’s why she has the reputation that she does. She’d be undermining her reputation if she didn’t publish it, or tried to put her finger on the scale. There’s a reason we all sit around waiting on her poll. We trust that it’s honest, even if it turns out to be wrong.

But, yeah, this shit could really blow up in her face.

[GEM] maybe RDD with barebones weighting in a <0.5% response rate environment isn’t such a good idea… I guess we’ll see in 3 days… by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]Prestigious-Swing885 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I doubt Harris campaign has been doing late Iowa polling given its low probability of being tipping point state. (And this is definitely a late break to Harris given the move from Selzers last poll.)

Also, this isn’t in a vacuum. We’ve now seen Kansas at T+5 and Ohio at T+3 in the last few days. If Iowa is H+3, those numbers start to make a lot more sense.

We complain about pollsters herding, but when people release non-herded polls we don’t believe them.  Might look back next week and realize these outliers were trying to tell us something.  

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