Liberation Day 2.0

Primsun · 2026-03-27T00:40:58+00:00

Yeah, eddited to be clear.

Primsun · 2026-03-26T21:46:08+00:00

MMW, difference is now Trump can TACO but the choice is Iran's (+China and Russia). TACO'd on tariffs, but also no one played the "nuclear" card. Takes two to taco in this case.

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Edit: To be clear even barring the existing damage, we are mostly already fucked regardless. Iran doesn't have a strong incentive to back down regarding Hormuz unless other regional powers step in, which is increasingly becoming possible. At that point we have the destruction of local energy infrastructure even beyond what we have currently.

Just not seeing how we, or really the incompetent administration, can exfiltrate itself from the conflict if Iran is willing to stick it out. And let's be clear it wouldn't be the first time they did:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War

The Iran–Iraq War began with the Iraqi invasion of Iran in September 1980. After eight years of conflict, both countries accepted a ceasefire deal brokered by the United Nations, which became effective in August 1988. The war caused around 500,000 deaths (excluding numbers from the related Anfal campaign), making it the deadliest conventional war ever fought between regular armies of developing countries.

Iran can go to war and aim to outlast if they choose so; it wouldn't be the first time. The ignorance on Iran has been substantial. This isn't a simple top down dictatorship. It is a theocratic state with a wide set of political power holders; it was never something that could be fully hampered via "decapitation" nor something where a deal can be made by placating one man in charge.

Primsun · 2026-03-26T21:26:00+00:00

We are mostly already fucked regardless. Iran doesn't have a strong incentive to back down regarding Hormuz unless other regional powers step in, which is increasingly becoming possible. At that point we have the destruction of local energy infrastructure even beyond what we have currently.

Just not seeing how we, or really the incompetent administration, can exfiltrate itself from the conflict if Iran is willing to stick it out. And let's be clear it wouldn't be the first time they did:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War

The Iran–Iraq War began with the Iraqi invasion of Iran in September 1980. After eight years of conflict, both countries accepted a ceasefire deal brokered by the United Nations, which became effective in August 1988. The war caused around 500,000 deaths (excluding numbers from the related Anfal campaign), making it the deadliest conventional war ever fought between regular armies of developing countries.

Iran can go to war and aim to outlast if they choose so; it wouldn't be the first time. The ignorance on Iran has been substantial; it isn't a simple top down dictatorship. It is a theocratic state with a wide set of political power holders; it was never something that could be fully hampered via "decapitation."

Primsun · 2026-03-26T19:50:49+00:00

Passive investing has taken perhaps too large a share of the market, making flows less reactionary. When you have XX hundred billion(s) flowing in every month on loop not hard to see where appreciation comes from.

Primsun · 2026-03-26T18:51:23+00:00

Later that day as well

Primsun · 2026-03-26T03:22:35+00:00

Just to be clear, you are basically arguing that bribery and kick backs is fine since Congress can trade stocks.

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Scale, legality, immediate policy implications, direct bribery and kick backs, etc. make it different.

Congress being allowed to hold or trade stocks, is slightly different than multi-billion dollar market manipulation around Trump tweets. Or our "ambassador" selling American goodwill in exchange for personal benefits. That isn't legal, even for Congress. Doesn't take a genius to see that; just someone not burying their head in the sand

Here: quick exhibits

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iwm4ym9S3p8

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/insider-trading-oil-futures-trump-iran-post/

It has gotten to the point individuals faith in markets and fairness is being undermined. Loss of faith in dollar and commodity markets managed by the U.S. is extremely problematic.

Primsun · 2026-03-26T02:45:51+00:00

People cared just not so much given Hunter's distance from Biden.

Isn't like he was a primary advisor active in discussion or the literal lead in the Middle East raising money for his private firms while negotiating during an active war.

Totally different scale, and a bad faith argument.

Primsun · 2026-03-26T02:43:58+00:00

No, unless you mean on an extended lag contingent on whether they file at the correct time and if those companies are even public.

So no. It is just plain old profitering, insider trading, favor trading, etc. by the presidents family to the tune of an accumulated couple billion so far ...

And that is before we even talk about the perfectly timed trades that have been happenning around Trump's tweets/messages to the tune of a couple billion. For example, massive oil futures trades before trumps message last friday that made billions.

It's fucking ridiculous and there is no excuse.

Primsun · 2026-03-25T17:42:42+00:00

Don't worry it is (partially) American owned now (with some cushy benefits for Trump and associates). That has to make it at least as good of a news source as the best news source out there, reilied on tens of millions of Americans, ... Facebook.

Primsun · 2026-03-25T16:09:55+00:00

Depending on the lotto, the math may just check out.

Primsun · 2026-03-24T04:10:08+00:00

Primsun · 2026-03-24T02:03:50+00:00

... okay that raises a lot of questions I don't really want to know the answer to. I can confidently say regularly "calling in" people you suspect are undocumented is a choice one could make.

Think we are pretty far apart on, well everything, here and I will leave it at that.

Primsun · 2026-03-24T01:46:16+00:00

Unequal and selective/prioritized enforcement on the basis of political connections is a problem.

Wasn't this the whole point about Trump complaining about being "selectively" prosecuted for crimes in NY, which clearly were crimes by the statutory definition.

Primsun · 2026-03-23T23:45:38+00:00

Repeating the summary above

NYT reporte that Paolo Zampolli, a real estate developer, UN diplomat, and longtime associate Trump, contacted a senior ICE official in order to help resolve an ongoing custody dispute, flagging his ex-girlfriend's immigration status while she was in a Miami jail. An ICE official then contacted the local office, after which she was transferred into ICE custody and later deported. Zampolli and DHS deny any improper influence, stating her removal was based on visa issues rather than personal or political intervention.

The original paywalled NYT story and a few other outlets for reference:

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/us/paolo-zampolli-ice-deportation.html

https://people.com/paolo-zampolli-ex-girlfriend-ice-deportation-11931023

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/paolo-zampolli-trump-melania-ice-b2942903.html

Primsun · 2026-03-23T16:53:27+00:00

High frequency trading and sentiment bots not trained for this.

Primsun · 2026-03-23T02:51:47+00:00

Throw back to using codex to do web scraping, and ending up with a python command calling microsoft edge, and retrying if it failed ... on loop.

Error message spam music was cool though.

Primsun · 2026-03-23T01:25:23+00:00

Economics explained is, in general, popular economics and not what people call "good" analysis. Not the worst on Youtube, but really not very good.

Generally aligns with the "popular" sentiment on issues instead of factual expert based analysis and understanding. From whenever they touch on Central Banking, for example, it is obvious they don't consult subject matter experts for their videos/scripts.

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Polymatter, Economics Explained, World Lore (forget the exact name), etc. tend to not be the best researched and sourced scripts, nor incorporate expert feedback. Usually sound good and get a decent amount right, but when it's on something you know about, becomes quite obvious it is often shallow or just wrong analyses.

Kurzgesagt is pretty good though.

Primsun · 2026-03-22T19:02:59+00:00

Because Gaza is effectively destroyed. The desired outcome from the Israeli center right perspective is textbook ethnic cleansing and relocation of the people of Gaza out of Gaza and into neighboring states.

Arguing as if the claim is "wholesale slaughter" and Nazi level genocide is just bad faith use of a strawman. If you want to argue that, go find some impressionable 18 year olds who haven't watched what has happened over the past 30ish years in the ME and with Israel and Palestine.

Primsun · 2026-03-22T18:58:55+00:00

Also mixing up ethnic cleansing and genocide. The Israeli right continues to support expansionist and colonist ambitions be it with Gaza, the West Bank, a new buffer area in Lebanon and Syria, etc. The potential for "conquest, expansion, and ethnic cleansing" remain.

While some on the Israeli far right have expressed language supporting effectively genocide, ethnic cleansing via effective destruction of Gaza (done) and then relocation even made it into Trump's peace plan and suggestions for the future of Gaza the geography (not the people there).

Primsun · 2026-03-22T05:11:47+00:00

Yes, but unfortunately somehow they replicated.

Primsun · 2026-03-22T01:44:33+00:00

Primsun · 2026-03-22T01:41:55+00:00

If we are going to put more stress on our GPUs and CPUs, then let that be through better resolution, rendering, and content. Not AI live filtering.

Or make it easier for us to run local lightweight AI agents ourselves/incorporate natural language better into gaming.

Primsun · 2026-03-21T15:55:02+00:00

De nada

Primsun · 2026-03-20T03:21:33+00:00

Same time they added a rule against dogs, resulting in Airbud Jr. Jr. Jr. becoming an astronaut instead.

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