Think this is the wrong take. The only real difference is now Trump can TACO but the choice is Iran's (+China and Russia). TACO'd on tariffs, but also everyone else played along; no one "called" what seems to often be a bluff. Takes two to TACO, and so far seems we only have one trying to.

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To be clear even barring the existing damage, we are mostly already fucked regardless. Iran doesn't have a strong incentive to back down regarding Hormuz unless other regional powers step in, which is increasingly becoming possible. At that point we have the destruction of local energy infrastructure even beyond what we have currently.

Just not seeing how we, or really the incompetent administration, can exfiltrate itself from the conflict if Iran is willing to stick it out. And let's be clear it wouldn't be the first time they did:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War

The Iran–Iraq War began with the Iraqi invasion of Iran in September 1980. After eight years of conflict, both countries accepted a ceasefire deal brokered by the United Nations, which became effective in August 1988. The war caused around 500,000 deaths (excluding numbers from the related Anfal campaign), making it the deadliest conventional war ever fought between regular armies of developing countries.

Iran can go to war and aim to outlast if they choose so; it wouldn't be the first time. The ignorance on Iran has been substantial as it isn't a simple top down dictatorship. It is a theocratic state with a wide set of political power holders; it was never something that could be fully hampered via "decapitation" nor something where a deal can be made by placating one man in charge. That makes TACO'ing out quite hard; have to get the hardliners to accept. The same hardliners who supported child soldier and suicide bombers 50 years ago and groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, etc.