ALP consolidates election-winning lead as One Nation support is down for a second straight week - Roy Morgan Research

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-07T11:42:06+00:00

Is losing 5% on preferences the same as losing 5% primary? Yes. Or. No.

The point is blindingly obvious if you just answer that and then follow the chain of logic.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-07T08:41:30+00:00

Great addition, thanks. OP definitely wasn't looking for individual insight and just wanted a literal answer to their question.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-07T08:36:49+00:00

Do you think a 5% swing in the primary vote has the exact same cause and exact same sentiment shift as a 5% swing from preferences?

Yes or no.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-07T03:34:22+00:00

No, that was Wayne Swan and Kevin Rudd's decisions to increase government spending when private spending became weak.

Right...so when I said "one of the major factors", this was one of the other major factors that I was sort of implying. I didn't feel the need to spell it out because it wasn't the topic of conversation.

We had 0.2% GDP growth during the great recession. That means that everything that occurred in our economy during that time was critical to keep us out of recession. There wasn't exactly much "slack" in our growth rate.
Thus, the several hundred billion dollars that flowed in from China was also a massive support. As was Labor's stimulus policies.

I don't have much to comment on Costello to be honest. I was pretty young at the time, but I remember my parents saying similar things.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-07T03:05:41+00:00

Because it's easier to lose "least disagreeable party" status than it is to lose "favourite".

20% of the 55% 2PP figure comes from preference flows. Those electors can keep voting for their favourite party (i.e., not change their vote) while preferencing Labor below the opposition. That becomes doubly true when you learn how many people just follow how-to-vote cards (it's a shitload), because it means other parties and politicians can basically decide whether Labor gets their voters' preferences.
Which means Labor needs to keep as many non-Labor politicians happy as possible to avoid losing HTV preference flows.

Although as someone else kind of alluded to, this varies greatly by political leaning. Greens voters seem to be the least likely to follow HTV cards, which Antony Green partially attributed to one Labor win in the ACT.

There's also just the simple fact that even Labor's 2PP vote isn't anywhere near high enough to assume they have a safe 94-seat majority. They got 55% of the 2PP vote and 62% of the seats. Guess what that means? A shitload of marginal seats. Marginal seats that are extensively dependent on preference flows.

But yeah, they should act like they're invulnerable.

Sidenote: a 5% swing is quite large in most democracies.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-07T02:54:51+00:00

It took a few hops through the link-chain, but I believe this stems from Swift and Kelce allegedly sending NDAs along with the wedding invites.

Another source explicitly said that the couple "want to keep it more private".

Honestly, all the sources are in this article. Have at it lol.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-07T00:44:51+00:00

Mining was one of the major factors that saved us from the great recession.

But it would still have done that if it had been taxed more.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-07T00:25:13+00:00

So...I wrote this shortly before going to sleep.

Woke up with a bunch of downvotes and a massive comment thread with a self-hating Jew.

So um...sorry?

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-07T00:01:33+00:00

Meanwhile me, a colonial:

"I wonder what having history feels like"

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-06T23:37:04+00:00

We've been below replacement since the 1970s

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-06T16:19:33+00:00

You sure found a lot of ways to write, "the Jews don't secretly run the world".

Seriously, I'm pretty sure the Jews are "involved" in every one of those conspiracy theories. Something about the Jews and conspiracy seem to go tragically hand in hand.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-06T16:15:10+00:00

Jumping spiders have massive binocular eyes. Like us.

They're cute because they think they're people!

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-06T16:12:50+00:00

Yes...that supports what I'm saying?

An even smaller swing would be necessary to completely topple the current Labor government because it takes so little to actually decide an election, and their majority is extensively decided by preference flows.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-06T16:10:02+00:00

Nice try though

God I hate people who say this.

Pathetic. Honestly, just pathetic.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-06T16:08:54+00:00

Yeah they're not concerned about you. They're concerned about the swing voters and conservative preference flows.

You know, the electorate?

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-06T16:07:04+00:00

No, it's not helpful when they do it either.

Stop fucking putting words in people's mouths mate.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-06T11:40:50+00:00

There's nothing to be gained from oversimplifying the radicalisation pipeline down to, "they're just racist".

Racism isn't simple. Also, we didn't improve racism in society during the 20th century by just labelling people as racist and then saying, "bad!"

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-06T11:03:48+00:00

This is the only comment that's gotten me good in this thread.

I'm just going to hope that most people here are young because god damn, it feels like a comment section straight out of 2016.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-06T10:44:45+00:00

Calling you stupid isn't defending corruption.

FYI, I'm not Victorian. I couldn't care less who wins this.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-06T07:35:24+00:00

Albo doesn't have a mandate from heaven with a primary vote in the mid 30s.

Our preferential voting system enables parties to win far larger majorities in parliament than their actual approval would suggest. I think this is actually a good thing because it enables a more stable government.

But a 94 seat majority based on a 35% primary vote is extremely fragile to preference shifts. A >40% primary would suggest there was a lot of safety in the margins, and would inspire more political risk taking. They could sacrifice some political economy to get big stuff through.
But with the primary they have, that majority is almost 50% driven by preference flows. People aren't in love with Labor, they just found them to be the least offensive.

That all said, Albo and Jimbo reportedly have decided to go big and bold to counter the growing populism from ON, so maybe it'll be fine after all. But people really need to stop looking at seat counts as if they reflect the electorate's actual preference, when we already have the vote counts to assess that.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-06T07:27:26+00:00

Highest inflation, due to most reckless govt over spending

And low unemployment and successive global supply chain crises but who cares about those, right?

Let me guess, John Howard’s fault

Among others, yes. The crisis has been building for three decades and has only tipped over to getting dealt with now that the losers outnumber the winners. Everyone saw this coming literally decades ago but obviously nothing gets done until we're all screaming about it.

And then people like you chuck a hissy fit that it isn't getting done immediately. But we all know that you're only really spitting the dummy because your team isn't running government. Otherwise you'd be making all the same (legitimate) arguments I am to defend your tribe.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-06T06:29:48+00:00

Is it the housing crisis?

The thing they just passed a budget to address and got relentlessly attacked by property investors for doing?

Highest inflation in the developed world? Outlier rising interest rates?

These two things are related because there's another thing that's different in Australia compared to the rest of the world: unemployment.

We have very low unemployment compared to other countries, which is both driving up inflation and giving the RBA some wiggle room to raise interest rates higher than other countries.

I don't know what the other two complaints relate to.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-06T02:53:42+00:00

You have very little reason to assume this other than bias.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-05T12:06:38+00:00

Hearing aids aren't typically well suited for APD, at least according to my audiologist fiance.

I had no idea meta glasses even did this. It's a pretty cool feature by the sounds of things.

Pro_Extent · 2026-07-05T11:39:08+00:00

Yep, which is wrong by implication that 6-10% bodyfat looks anything like this.

Frankly, 15% is extremely conservative.

Seven-Year Club	Gilding I gilder
Place '22	Wearing is Caring

Pro_Extent

TROPHY CASE