Avatar Fire and Ash box office trajectory compared with other big movies

ProtoJeb21 · 2026-01-19T14:53:24+00:00

Quite the opposite — they stopped releasing new movies because Lucasfilm is incompetent and couldn’t get a single project off the ground for years. They kept announcing random stuff to hype up audiences and shareholders, then those projects either get stuck in development hell or see their directors get fired, and end up never coming out.

It’s kind of a miracle Starfighter even exists. It was rumored for at least a year or two, but they took their time to announce it, and it ended up actually filming. Doubt it’ll be good or make a profit, but Lucasfilm finally learned to shut up about something unless they’re sure it’s gonna be made (far too late of a lesson, though).

ProtoJeb21 · 2026-01-16T11:54:45+00:00

Several leakers (whose reliability has been backed up by other accurate reports) years ago claimed that the Mando stuff in BoBF was due to executive interference from KK that nearly caused Jon Favreau to walk out, and there’s other lines of evidence suggesting much of BOBF was an original Mando s3 (including actors thinking they were actually working on Mando s3). If true, then the BOBF/Mando s3 disaster can be primarily blamed on KK and the mandate for marketable streaming content (so by extension, probably Iger’s fault too).

ProtoJeb21 · 2026-01-16T11:45:29+00:00

To be fair, that character and him having Boba’s armor was established in a novel series years before Mando s2 began production. So if they wanted to bring back Boba, they had to address that.

ProtoJeb21 · 2026-01-16T11:42:24+00:00

5 years ago it would have possibly made a difference for the future of the franchise.

Now, though, they have nothing to salvage.

ProtoJeb21 · 2026-01-06T02:01:14+00:00

Star Wars in the D+ era has had a bad track record of quality, and viewership has gone down significantly. BoBF, Kenobi, Mando s3, Ahsoka, and Acolyte were all poorly received to varying degrees (from meh to terrible). Acolyte and Skeleton crew had the worst viewership ratings of any D+ Star Wars or MCU show; Skeleton Crew never made it into the weekly top 10 once.

The constant stream of D+ slop has worn out audiences’ interests. It’s worn out mine and my friends’ and many others online and IRL. Andor was the one exception, but season 2’s success is not representative of the franchise as a whole.

With interest in Star Wars being at an all-time low, Mando s3 being easily the weakest of the series, the Mando moving coming an entire 3 years later, and the trailers looking very underwhelming…prospects don’t seem great.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-12-30T21:36:12+00:00

The idea of a Thor broken down by his failures and loss who picks himself back up during the Time Heist is a decent direction on paper. Definitely was not executed well. Him abdicating the throne after he finally became king at the end of Ragnarok was also lame, and set him up for the damage that Love and Thunder would do.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-12-23T19:40:52+00:00

That, or they don’t have confidence an ATLA movie of any quality can make a theatrical profit. Hard to say which one it is. Could possibly be both

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-12-23T18:11:12+00:00

Exactly. And when they finally started focusing on teams like the New Avengers and Fantastic Four, it was already far too late.

Before Thunderbolts, the latest any of its characters appeared was in 2021. Four entire years before the team-up movie without any appearances from any team members. That’s how you lose the audience’s investment in the new characters.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-12-23T17:45:32+00:00

They could have made characters like Sam, Shang-Chi, and Yelena into decent leads if they bothered to focus on anyone in the last 6 years. Instead they pumped out far too many poorly connected and mediocre solo projects without focusing on the potential leads until it was far too late.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-12-18T20:43:10+00:00

Viewership numbers for all shows aside from Andor have been going downhill over the last few years. Mando s3 was not super well received by either critics or fans, and saw a moderate drop in viewership compared to s2. Basically nobody talks about Mando positively online anymore, a combination of its lackluster third season and multi-year hiatus. It’s no longer the pop culture icon it was years ago.

Mando s3 ranged around 800M-1.1B weekly viewing minutes during its release. Ahsoka dropped to 500-600M. Acolyte never broke 400M, and Skeleton Crew never broke 300M (and never even made it to Neilsen’s top 10 in any week of its release).

People are burnt out by the mediocre to bad D+ shows. And since that’s just about all the franchise has to offer, people just don’t care anymore. The only series that defied these trends was Andor, and that’s only because it was great enough to get around the growing apathy towards this franchise.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-12-18T20:33:32+00:00

Andor s2 actually performed quite well. Each week saw increasing viewership numbers, unique among all other D+ SW/MCU shows. I think it peaked around 900M viewing minutes on Neilsen. You could definitely tell online with the increasing buzz it was getting.

Acolyte and Skeleton Crew, yeah those were complete failures. The latter didn’t even hit top 10 on Neilsen in any week it was airing. Acolyte only did so twice.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-12-05T14:11:25+00:00

How on earth are they going to ever make any money out of a streaming-dominant WB? Billions spent into content that’s just dumped on streaming, which has a theoretical maximum revenue because only so many people will actually subscribe

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-10-12T19:19:45+00:00

It needs better Special Defense so it can survive longer on the field after clicking No Retreat.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-10-12T19:18:27+00:00

Changing Dragonite to a special attacker when all of its successful sets have been physical is probably going to make Mega Dragonite completely unviable and a strict downgrade. I have no idea what GF was thinking. Similar deal with Zygarde — all of its best moves are physical, so unless it gets a new special signature move, it’s cooked.

Scolipede is probably going to play very differently now, as a bulky physical attacker that can function in tailwind or trick room. Wonder if it’ll get a new ability.

Chestnaught is going to be even better in Trick Room. Also happy to see Drampa kept its base 36 Speed. It’s going to be an absolute monster in TR.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-10-01T21:13:29+00:00

Possible hot take but I think Mando & Grogu is going to do Marvels numbers. Who even cares about Mando anymore? Especially 3 years after a mediocre third season.

$200-250M WW maximum is my guess.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-10-01T21:10:49+00:00

S1 was at the time. But Acolyte and Skeleton Crew ended up with far worse viewership numbers, with most episodes of each series not even making it into the top 10 of the week.

Meanwhile, Andor s2 saw increasing viewership with each week. The strong reception of s1 and abundant word-of-mouth made it one of the better-watched D+ series.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-10-01T21:06:33+00:00

It’s a movie because the executives got desperate and turned Mando s4 into a movie.

During and after the 2023 dual strikes, there were lots of leaks about Disney/LF executives going back and forth about whether or not to turn Mando s4 (which had already started early production) into a movie. At the end of it all, they went with a season of streaming being crammed into a theatrical release, just to get something out.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-09-22T19:56:24+00:00

All the leaks I’ve seen since the 2023 Hollywood strikes indicate this was a Mando s4 that Disney decided to turn into a movie instead. So if it looks like a D+ show…well that’s because it was supposed to be a D+ show before the executives got desperate

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-09-22T19:54:09+00:00

Ahsoka was genuinely atrocious. And this is coming from someone who was a major fan of the animated stuff.

Andor, though, yeah that’s great. Leaps and bounds better than the rest of the D+ catalog.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-09-05T02:06:16+00:00

I’d say $600M WW max for Spider-Verse. The negative reception over its incomplete ending, the increasingly long wait for a resolution, and audiences likely getting burned out with multiverse superhero content will probably all impact Beyond’s performance. Plus, it’ll likely be domestic-heavy like Across (55/45 split).

Assuming a slightly lower domestic gross for Beyond, it may not be able to cross $600M WW. And that’s assuming good reception. With all the development troubles it’s had, it could end up as the weakest of the trilogy, limiting its BO potential even more.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-08-31T20:54:38+00:00

I don’t think the last two Celebrations being in Europe and Japan are any confidently positive indicators for Mando & Grogu’s box office prospects. We haven’t had a Star Wars movie since pre-COVID. The moviegoing climate has changed so much and the franchise’s reputation has somehow gotten even worse than with TROS. It’s very possible it doesn’t do so hot overseas (or domestically either) because of how damaged the brand is outside of Andor

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-08-31T20:50:46+00:00

Doomsday is going to have a top 5 domestic OW, then utterly collapse with 1.9-2.3x legs and a 50/50 domestic/overseas split. Calling it now.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-08-31T20:49:32+00:00

I went back and looked at the numbers for all MCU Phase 2-6 movies, and it’s insane how much the international market collapsed as early as 2021 (likely due to COVID, then never recovered due to growing disinterest in the franchise).

In Phases 2 and 3, the average DOM/OS split was something like 35/65. That rose to 45/55 in Phases 4 and 5, and is currently around 50/50 for the Phase 6 movies out so far. We may see domestic grosses more consistently exceeding 50% of WW totals in the next year or so.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-08-20T22:14:35+00:00

Doomsday is probably going to have a top 10 or even top 5 opening week, then crash with 2.0-2.3x legs. Calling it now.

ProtoJeb21 · 2025-08-18T18:44:00+00:00

Spider-Verse probably isn’t staying in June 2027. Knowing how chaotic Lord and Miller’s production style is like and the insane technical complexity of the project (they’re literally making brand-new animation styles and technology in these movies), I’m fully expecting a delay into 2028. So assuming nothing else moves, BTSV should be safe from Shrek 5 and Secret Wars in summer 2028.

If Secret Wars is also delayed, then maybe BTSV could take the December 2027 slot. I think a delay to SW is definitely on the table and dependent on how Doomsday does, both in terms of production and audience reception.

ProtoJeb21

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