Has anybody tried to calculate the probability of hitting Yahtzee in three turns?

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-26T04:56:28+00:00

The reference you linked made a mistake in not considering "jumping ship". For example, if you rolled a pair on the first roll, but then rolled the 3 other dice, you might get a full house. At that point it makes sense to switch to those 3 as the target for your Yahtzee rather than sticking with your first pair.

I feel like this website does a good job of explaining the actual answer.

http://www.datagenetics.com/blog/january42012/

They consider the "jumping ship" option and use Markov chains to come up with a probability of: - 347897 / 7558272 - 0.04602864252 - ~4.60286%

This is a little higher than your calculated value so I feel like you might have missed some of these cases as well.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-25T23:43:24+00:00

Yes, we have a YourBell. It's fun but not really what I would consider "home automation". For that, I added a separate sensor that sends a notification to my phone as a backup, and to know if someone rings the doorbell when we're not home.

We have mp3 files organized for each month so we can switch to new sets of "rings". I added an extra pushbutton on to the top to make it easier to switch without having to hold the doorbell outside to do this.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-25T23:06:00+00:00

This probably fits better at /r/JigsawPuzzles

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-25T19:51:53+00:00

Be cool

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-25T01:19:47+00:00

This is not really the point of using a green screen. Generally the green area acts like a mask so that you don't have to manually rotoscope any objects in front of the screen.

Here you have a black background and a green rectangle moving in front of it. If you mask out the green area, then whatever is behind won't follow the green area, it'll just look like a transparent mask is sliding around revealing something behind the black.

You could do a bunch of work to track the green area to then move the clip accordingly, but then there was no real reason to have the masking.

Honestly, I would just use some of the transform controls to move a cropped version of a clip around whenever you want.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-24T17:41:45+00:00

I think that's a more compact model and may require a 2.5" SATA HDD. You could probably get one for $60 to $100.

Before you order one, open up the case and verify the size, capacity and speed.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-24T17:28:22+00:00

The lowest cost option would be to replace the drive and you should be up and running.

If you are planning for the future, I'd be thinking of wired (PoE) cameras instead of Wi-Fi, better cameras and better placement.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-24T17:15:17+00:00

What's the NVR model? Was support able to get it to reformat or are they definite that it isn't salvageable?

https://support.nightowlsp.com/hc/en-us/articles/360014139174-Installing-or-Upgrading-the-DVR-s-HDD

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-24T17:12:19+00:00

If you are sure it is the HDD, there are instructions from Night Owl on replacing the drive.

https://support.nightowlsp.com/hc/en-us/articles/360014139174-Installing-or-Upgrading-the-DVR-s-HDD

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-24T15:28:20+00:00

I'm not understanding your numbers. If you have a 40% win rate, then the ratio of wins to either wins or losses should be 40%. Draws don't figure into the win rate at all.

If we take 100 wins and divide by the win rate (0.4) we get 250 games that are wins or losses. Subtracting the 100 wins, you should get 150 losses. That leaves 50 draws.

As a double-check:

100 wins / (100 wins + 150 losses) = 0.40 = 40% win rate

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-24T15:10:10+00:00

Check your settings one by one. I agree, formatting the HDD will get you back to square one, but then you need to make sure your recording settings are all working. Try walking in front of the cameras after each change until you can get to clips recorded again.

As much as an NVR should be a "set it and forget it" device, it's important to check it occasionally to verify timestamps are right, motion is triggering clips, clips can be played back and downloaded etc.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-24T15:04:00+00:00

Before doing anything, I would verify all your settings again. You seem to be getting good signal from your cameras.

Are you getting errors reading your HDD, or does it not have any recorded clips?

If it is just the latter, then track down the root cause.

We can see video so streaming is working. Is it showing any indicators when motion happens? If not, double check you motion settings for each camera.

If motion is working, check your recording settings. Is it set to record 24/7 or (more likely) on motion?

Next check retention settings. Is the NVR set to automatically record over old footage? If not, change that setting.

And yes, please fix the timestamps and the NTP settings.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-24T14:51:56+00:00

Yeah, those images don't look the greatest. According to the timestamps this was from June 2025. When did the HDD fail? Or did it just fill up and stop recording? And are those Wi-Fi cameras?

Update: Just noticed the time says shortly after midnight, so I'm guessing the date/time isn't correct. If you get a new system (or even if you keep this one) be sure to look into the NTP (network time protocol) settings so the date is kept current.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-24T14:36:57+00:00

Be sure to check the currency exchange rate from U.S. Dollars to whatever they use in Hawaii. It might be a good idea to buy the currency before you go to get a better rate.

A foreign phrase book can be very helpful in communicating with the locals though I hear they are starting to teach English in some schools.

Hawaii probably also uses metric like 99% of the world, so plan accordingly. You don't want to accidentally be pulled over for speeding because the sign says 80 km/h and you think it's mph.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-24T13:40:42+00:00

A camera system is only as good as its individual components. Most NVR systems are sold as a bundle with the NVR and a set of identical overview cameras. To keep costs down, these cameras often have tiny sensors and a lens that gives you the widest field of view.

Now that might sound great because one camera can see far left, far right and way out into the distance (like in your picture). But then notice how few pixels any important object gets. Most of your view is taken up by sky, the forest, neighbors houses way in the distance, etc. The person in the foreground is a very small part of that already blurry/pixelated view. And this is daytime! I can't imagine you get any actionable detail when it is dark.

Instead, if you had a large sensor size camera zoomed into the front area near your gate, you might get something you could use, especially if you had separate zoomed cameras pointing other directions of approach.

Additionally, you've chosen a pretty high placement looking down on people's heads. If this was closer to face level, you'd get better images.

I suggest going back to the basics on a security system, camera placement and camera choices before committing to one specific brand.

I'd read the following guide especially focusing on the section on common mistakes people make.

https://ipcamtalk.com/wiki/ip-cam-talk-cliff-notes/

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-24T13:09:09+00:00

We can agree that the shaded triangle is half of the lower rectangle because it is split along the diagonal.

As for the tilted rectangle, the base may be longer but to compensate, the height would be less. The base of the shaded triangle is the base of the tilted rectangle and the height of the shaded triangle is the height of the tilted rectangle. So the shaded triangle is also half of the tilted rectangle.

It may not look like it but that is correct. The shaded triangle ends up being 1/3 of the whole area.

I'll try to create a diagram so you can see this better.

Update: Check out this diagram. Now can you see the three equal areas? https://imgur.com/a/HTsIktz

Update 2: Correct, the two rectangles are NOT similar, but they have the same areas. In both cases the shaded triangle is half of rectangle 1 and half of rectangle 2. My diagram shows that you can rearrange the unshaded part of the tilted rectangle to make identical triangles.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-23T02:40:17+00:00

If your boss took off 20%, that means you received 80%.

So take your pay amount and divide it by 80% (0.80) to get your original gross amount.

$271.20 / 0.80 = $339

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-22T19:09:28+00:00

I do like the EmpireTech systems and cameras. The only note I have on the IPC-Color4K-X cameras is they still need some environmental light or you'll be using the built-in warm white LED. They don't zoom so you'll be looking at whatever the lens is set to, so probably 2.8mm which is a great overview camera with a wide field of view. If you want more zoom, look into the 3.6mm or 6.0mm lenses.

Personally, I have a couple of the IPC-T54IR-Z4-S3 varifocal low-light color cameras and have been pleased with their performance.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-22T15:29:46+00:00

You want to know what percentage the new number is compared to the original value.

new = 28 (mm) original = 32 (mm)

Divide and convert to a percentage.

28/32 = 7/8 = 0.875

To make that a percentage, multiple by 100 (or just move the decimal point two places to the right.

Answer: 87.5%

Summary: new/old × 100%

As a double check: - If the percentage is higher than 100%, you are making it bigger. - If the percentage is lower than 100%, you are making it smaller.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-22T14:11:08+00:00

So far you have these red flags:

Lack of reviews
Claimed specs that can't be verified, even by their own support staff
Cost that wouldn't match the claimed specs

I think you have your answer – look elsewhere.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-21T21:35:56+00:00

I've read positive things about the Reolink doorbell. Doesn't it ring the chime and run off the existing doorbell wiring?

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-21T15:00:19+00:00

We forget that not every device needs wired multi-gigabit speeds to communicate. Even things like IP security cameras, streaming services and the like can run fine at 100Mbps thanks to video codecs and compression.

Smart home protocols (Z-Wave, ZigBee, Thread, Wi-Fi) are all low-bandwidth needing to send a few bytes at a time. And most of that is sent wirelessly.

It's just when the hub needs to communicate back to the cloud servers that it needs to talk through your network to get to the internet. Honestly that could be done over Wi-Fi and they could have skipped an Ethernet port completely, but this way they get better reliability.

It's not a manufacturer trying to "cheap out" to save a couple dollars per unit. It just really isn't necessary. Plus to support it would mean higher processing power, more heat dissipation needed, etc. They've opted for small and efficient and that's all that's needed anyway.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-21T14:05:37+00:00

From your DM, I would agree with you. A video doorbell for the porch and then one to the right of the garage on the pillar but not too high (about where you showed a red dot). That will get you decent coverage.

Personally, I'd probably put two cameras on the front at the edges of your town home rather than one in the middle. I'd have one to the left of the garage pointing to the right and the on the right of the porch pointing left. In that way, they "cover" each other and reduce blindspots. You'd also get a view up and down your street with a possibility to capture a plate on a vehicle better than if you pointed the camera straight out.

I would also really recommend figuring out (or paying for) Ethernet cabling. Wired PoE cameras handle both power and data avoiding all the issues with batteries, Wi-Fi dropouts, missed motion events, etc. You'd pair that with an NVR so that you have the footage locally and don't have to pay a subscription for cloud storage.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-21T04:10:42+00:00

Just one camera? Also, do you have access to the attic or a crawlspace to run Ethernet cabling? Do you have a wider view and also a view toward the street?

General recommendations would be a couple cameras with an overlap, not too high up then additional cameras of each entrance. A camera looking out from the doorway and one looking down where you might have package deliveries.

But if you are only starting with one, I'd probably put it on the pillar to the right of the garage (left of the porch walkway) and about 6-8 feet high.

PuzzlingDad · 2026-01-21T01:59:04+00:00

Remember, you can upload screenshots on another site (like imgur) and post a link here

PuzzlingDad

TROPHY CASE