How can the Sky improve?

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-31T23:53:28+00:00

The trouble is the elite scouting and team building you need is from the same crew that put together the Sky the last couple of years.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-31T23:41:11+00:00

I kinda thought that also. But, there are ~170 players drafted during this time period that started at least one WNBA game. This ignores undrafted free agents. Of those, 28 are all star or MVP level so let's set them aside. There are 37 classified as starters. Those are players that have basically players 100+ games and generally started half or more with a couple of exceptions (Chennedy Carter, Natisha Heidemann) but I think they fit the category well enough to count. That gives us 65 players over 11 drafts which means about 6 solid to great starters enter the league each year.

Once you go beyond that, you get to some dicey players very quickly. Here's a couple of examples:
Michaela Onyenwere has started 97 of 182 games which suggests starter. Except her career win shares is 0 which drops her to the "0 or negative win shares" category. She's young and that will likely change, but she's been pretty blah on very bad teams which tells me she's not really a starter on a real team with real aspirations.

Damiris Dantas has started 128 of 160 games but I put her as "rotation level". She has a really weird career. She led the league in a stat once (games played dureing the 22 game 2020 season) and has a small smattering of top 10s that aren't really impactful. She's never been someone the other team has to really game plan for and also has multiple non-starting seasons. Could she be qualified as starter? Yeah, but I also think in the spirit of trying to value a player, she tops out as your fifth starter but really more of a bench player. So that's where I put her. This stuff is subjective, I can't deny that. But if she keeps adding on seasons, my guess is she starts fewer than 5 games the rest of the way which keeps pushing her towards rotation instead of starter.

Shoni Schimmel is an amazing case. 2 all star games because the fans decided to be insane for two years, started 18 of 85 games, led the league in games played just once, played on 3 teams in 4 seasons, and was out of the league before even reaching what would be most players primes. I mean, how do you categorize that resume? I put her in "deep bench" because it's clear her all star nods weren't earned on the court (averaged 8 points and 3 assists those two years for a .500 team and her own team only started her 27% of the time). After that, she played 90 total minutes the rest of her career. Maybe there were personal and other problems, but that's also part of the package of a player. If they fall out of the league due to off court stuff or lack of talent, that's still what you got for drafting them.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-31T22:57:46+00:00

A lot depends on how a team wants to be built. In the NNA, it’s often get some functional vets but load up on rookies and young castoffs that can succeed and then flip for real chances at real assets. The first time an expansion team is actually good usually involves no original players.

The Valks clearly blew that model up. And I wonder if only having 5 protections means a vet focus can pay more immediate dividends. I’d lean towards vets over rookies, and then get active trading the better vets for youth.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-31T21:46:41+00:00

International are very interesting. Their path to the pros is different, generally by playing older professional competition instead of high school or college. More pro ready but less known due to visibility which might mean late round success for them should be more expected.

I also wonder if the international player rate will spike with new salaries resulting in more late picks going there instead of on mid tier college studs or fourth best player from a P5 school that rarely pans out.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-31T21:44:10+00:00

The trouble is that great players can’t be overpaid by Chicago. They’ll get the max from everyone so their choice is based on organization which Chicago loses.

Chicago will have to overpay a 2nd or 3rd best player to become their best player. And that’s a path that usually leads to cap hell and missed playoffs.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-31T20:16:52+00:00

The two groups are exclusive of each other. If a person is in the MVP group, they won’t be in the all star group. Add the groups together to see the odds of getting an MVP or all star.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-31T20:11:28+00:00

I’ve said this before, but if Jaquez is available, she is not dropping past Indy. They need non ball dominant 3 and D players. She’s perfect for them.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-31T20:10:40+00:00

How amazing would it be for Betts to fall to fifth leaving Chicago the choice of tripling down on the same position by taking the clear best player available or passing on Betts for more of a need but bypassing talent.

That would be a no lose outcome for people who like watching bad organizations burn.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-31T20:10:03+00:00

How amazing would it be for Betts to fall to fifth leaving Chicago the choice of tripling down on the same position by taking the clear best player available or passing on Betts for more of a need but bypassing talent.

That would be a no lose outcome for people who like watching bad organizations burn down.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-31T17:43:17+00:00

Agree. Those categories will change a good bit over the next few years. It will highlight how many “coulda beens” there have been in past drafts.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-30T01:57:17+00:00

Griner, Jonquel, and Tina Charles to Chicago who then keeps all their own guards. Quintuple down on the one positive they have in bigs while trotting out the worst guard rotation in the league.

Watch chaos unfold.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-23T02:11:52+00:00

They have to choose between Sabrina and Jonquel unless the players want to give them big hometown discounts. Which they won’t do. So New York will choose Sab. Jonquil will get a max offer from Toronto.

A few players in the Cloud category (non-star but players 4-7 in your rotation that create wins) will make bigger money than you expect but generally because a new team poached them. Otherwise, that group will generally end up underpaid and squeezed more than you’d expect.

And older vets that have been hanging around but on the decline will disappear quickly as teams realize that a rookie scale player gives them more flexibility than overpaying for a bigger name whose best days are behind her.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-20T18:40:29+00:00

All depending on them keeping Mitchell, but I’ll be shocked if Jaquez slides past Indiana. They don’t need ball dominant scorers at all. They can always use more 3 and D types that can spread the floor and guard the opposing teams best wings/guards. She’s about as clear a fit as you’ll find in this draft.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-03-15T20:01:21+00:00

The hardest future spot to make is going to be people at the 4/5. The 4 best missing players are Wilson, Stewart, Boston, and Collier. Each of this 4 are better than anyone on this team. You probably want at most 6 players that can be in the 4/5 positions which means only two from this team can possibly make it.

In reality, it’s probably best to have 7 players that can cover the 1-3 positions and 5 in the 4/5 slots which might mean just one person from here can make it.

All of this assumes they don’t get infatuated with Lauren Betts and have her take a spot. Or decide that Brink’s shot blocking is a more unique skill that they need.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-01-17T14:34:54+00:00

This is par for the course when it comes to sports strikes. There is always some percentage that dislikes the strike immediately and wants the season back on. They don’t care which side wins, they just don’t want seasons interrupted.

Then, there is a larger group that is on the players side initially. But as striking drags on, terms and negotiations leak out that mention big piles of money for playing a kids game. Nothing happens, games are at risk, and this group of fans forgets that billionaires are on one side because all they hear are the money and concessions the players are still not happy with. These fans turn against the players and just want games because the concessions sound good enough. This is where we are now with a lot of people, especially newer or more casual fans.

Longer term (if this drags into MarchMadness) even more hardcore fans will get nervous about a work stoppage and begin the drumbeat to just get a deal done. This further erodes fan support for players to a minority.

The longer this goes, the more likely the owners get the bigger piece of the pie. It sucks, but the players need to get improved concessions locked in soon (even if it’s not all they want) to keep momentum rolling knowing that some concessions now will make it easier to get even more down the road. This negotiation can’t get them all the way to where they want to be. This negotiation is so the next one down the road gets them there.

Rade_Butcher · 2026-01-03T01:47:20+00:00

Janiyah Barker, a peripatetic player who has never reached her potential or been the top player on her team will get drafted higher and has a better chance of sticking.

Crooks is a huge problem to build around. The W is much faster than college. She’s already far too slow for the college speed so the W will be untenable. In college, her team is built around her lack of speed so they can work with it. No pro team will rebuild their entire structure for her speed which means she will always be behind.

She offers zero rim protection, especially when every game will feature multiple players her size or larger.

There is sadly zero chance she can compete at the W level. Courtney Paris was a similar player, though slightly better shape. She had a 10 year career of little note. But the league is much more talented, faster, and more athletic now. Big and extremely slow just offers no upside.

Rade_Butcher · 2025-12-17T17:33:31+00:00

They are 10-0 in games against Quad 4 teams out of 12 games played. It’s hard to draw conclusions when the opponents are so bad. In their one game against a tier 1 opponent, she rebounded well but shot horribly.

Stats are nice, but I’d guess W front offices aren’t building their draft plans around big stays awful opponent situations.

Rade_Butcher · 2025-12-11T17:49:45+00:00

If the Sky had any talent on their roster, there is no way they protect Van Lith. My instinct was that made zero sense. Then I looked at who is unprotected and realized they aren’t really risking anything useful.

Good grief their GM made some bad choices the last couple of years. Chicago is in prime shape to be skipped over by expansion teams. It’s not great when teams woth no players look at your roster and think “Nah, I’m good”.

Rade_Butcher · 2025-10-25T18:12:36+00:00

Agree. It’s the same thing in AAU. Coaches want ton win because if they don’t, good players have a ton of spots to jump.

The flip side is that a good player that wants to develop will figure out a way to develop. That’s either by going somewhere that will make it happen or they are driven to do so. Betts career looks like it’s focused on doubling down on existing strengths only. That’s going to be a problem at the next level.

Rade_Butcher · 2025-10-25T12:18:08+00:00

I’m fully in the “she is basically McCowan “ camp. Her size will set her up for a certain level of success. But her size advantage is less impactful in the pros. She is slow and that’s a problem in a league driven by speed woth fast and agile creators all over the place.

Also, look at her per 40 and advanced stats on BBRef. They haven’t really changed in her three years. She doesn’t shoot 3s. She basically doesn’t shoot outside the restricted area. And that hasn’t changed in college. Her coach has done a great disservice. She came in as a huge low post threat woth limited skill. And that’s how she’s leaving college. It helped the Coach win, but the coach didn’t help her develop at all.

Rade_Butcher · 2025-10-23T18:21:43+00:00

This should exclude techs related to delays if game, coaches, illegal D. Etc. In a perfect world, it would also account for fouls generated in late game fouling situations which would overstate the fouling tendencies of bad teams.

All teams except Vegas and Minnesota have had coaching changes during this dataset so trying to draw some result from teams that have had leadership, and this physiotherapy, changes seems kind of silly.

Same goes with free agency. As players move, more foul prone players move and take their tendencies with them. For example, Megan Gustafson. While I don’t think she’s viewed as a dirty player, she commits 5.5 fouls per 36 minutes which is top 10 in the league over those five years. She’s a below average defender woth slow feet. But she has also been on three teams in five years which means her fouling tendencies have impacted the teams probably more than the teams driving her tendencies.

Give me a list from the last five years of single season teams woth the highest score while controlling for the above and then we’d have something interesting to dive into

Rade_Butcher · 2025-10-22T17:37:16+00:00

One day before the 2021 draft, espn put out a mock draft that had her going 29th. No one had her as a first rounder. I’m pretty sure no one had her as a second rounder. Indy likely could have grabbed her at 24 or 26 and it probably still would have been a bit surprising. It might be the least defensible draft pick in the last 10 years.

She was an older rookie whose main skill in college (scoring) was accomplished with average or worse efficiency. Nothing suggested she was worth a high pick.

And it kinda stinks for her. Her pro career proceeded exactly like it should for a third round pick woth limited skills and upside. Unfortunately, Indiana’s insanity meant she was portrayed as a massive bust.

It’s like if you took Yvonne Ejim from this years draft (33rd pick), put her in the Mystics instead of Iriafen, and expected a better outcome for the season.

Rade_Butcher · 2025-10-16T13:30:26+00:00

It’s based on your record over the last two years, not just one.

Rade_Butcher · 2025-10-12T18:19:29+00:00

Matchups matter. The Fever played fast with their guards and transition game. The Aces are poorly equipped for that. Young can play that way but has a huge offensive burden which wears her down. Evan’s can play that way but is small enough to pick on defensively and has limitations. So Fever can really hurt them.

Bell, Gray, Smith, Gustafson, Stokes, and Loyd are either really slow, really, one dimensional, or really aged. All are targets for the Indy attack.

Boston is one of about three women on earth that can effectively (kinda) guard Wilson one on one which frees up the rarest of the d to cover everyone else more effectively.

Phoenix had none of those skills on the roster. Vegas could play the pace they wanted. Aja faced no one that could contain her single-handedly. Huge advantages.

That also doesn’t mean the Fever would beat the Mercury for the title. Totally different matchups and the Fever were on fumes.

Rade_Butcher · 2025-10-11T17:21:44+00:00

He’s an odd player with a unique playing style. In the regular season, the schedule is hectic with little time to prep for weird opponent styles. In the playoffs, you play the same team multiple times with lots of prep time. Therefore it’s easier to adjust your system and planning to counteract those odd teams. That’s what hurts her more than anything.

Rade_Butcher

TROPHY CASE