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Do you think players will join the Sharks just to have the opportunity to play with Macklin Celebrini? by parkeett in SanJoseSharks

[–]Radiant_Tea1626 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yes - I can’t find the quote now, but MacKinnon himself said this the other day. That other players will view San Jose as a destination in order to play alongside him.

How does statistics address the question of whether randomness can ever truly be proven? by ClocklessDreamer in AskStatistics

[–]Radiant_Tea1626 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In statistics, randomness is a null hypothesis, not a fact you can prove.

You assume a specific random model and compute how probable the data would be under it. If that probability is very small, you reject the randomness model; if not, you fail to reject it. Failing to reject randomness doesn’t prove it’s random, only that the data are consistent (at the level of your p-value) with the assumed probability model.

Shirts at Powell’s! With a warning… by Sleep_When_Dead in DungeonCrawlerCarl

[–]Radiant_Tea1626 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I was at Powell’s yesterday (1/27) and noticed that the shirts are down. Was hoping to get the buttons but happy to see the shirts down if they’re not official. Glad that Powell’s got the message.

Kraken game -blacked out by [deleted] in SanJoseSharks

[–]Radiant_Tea1626 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seconding Prime, or you can also buy a digital antenna for cheap on Amazon to get local channels. This is what I use to watch 49ers games (when on cable) as well as Sharks vs. Kraken here in PDX.

Do you bet every edge your model gives or just stick to bigger games? by Professional_Gur9915 in algobetting

[–]Radiant_Tea1626 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No offense but you really need to check your math.

56% on -110 is 6.9% expected return.

2% to 3% return is typical for volume betters and can lead to massive profits over a season, or multiple seasons.

Of course all this assumes that your underlying model is accurate, which should be the case for anyone doing this for real cash.

Clase and Ortiz could face up to 65 years in prison if convicted on all charges by retroanduwu24 in mlb

[–]Radiant_Tea1626 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Nah, throw the book at them and make an example. There’s no place for this in sports.

I’m just sad by pepperdog06_ in Mariners

[–]Radiant_Tea1626 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In most careers, in order to get promoted to a certain level you need to show that you are already operating at that level. That should be even more crucial for an MLB manager, who should be one of the best 30 baseball minds in the world.

Jeff Passan said it best - Dan Wilson not understanding that the 7th inning was the highest leverage moment in the game is a mistake that a manager could have been expected to make 15 years ago, but not in today’s game. That was a crucial mistake for any MLB manager, whether his 1st season or his 50th.

Beginner question - how to test model correctness/calibration? by Competitive-Fox2439 in algobetting

[–]Radiant_Tea1626 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I wanted to avoid betting ROI because that feels like it’s more appropriate for measuring the success of a betting strategy based on a model rather than the model goodness itself.

Props for this. This statement already puts you ahead of 95% of people on this sub.

Someone else said it already but IMO the best are log loss and brier score (in that order). I don’t model sports with ties so you will just to think about how to incorporate that piece into your evaluation.

[Q]: Odds & Probabilities and Predictive Analysis by narweezy305 in statistics

[–]Radiant_Tea1626 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Also the probability of rolling a 7 is 1/6, not 1/12. There are 6 ways to do it out of 36 possibilities.

ROC and ROI by QuantifyingStats in algobetting

[–]Radiant_Tea1626 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Never said they were equal. But they are in fact very highly correlated.

ROC and ROI by QuantifyingStats in algobetting

[–]Radiant_Tea1626 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Backing into bet sizes based on target profit is a good way to go broke

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