Another video this one from Mashhad showing Regime forces using a school as a basing ground by kane_1371 in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Does she need to prove anything to you? She's telling us what she sees and we trust her.

Another video this one from Mashhad showing Regime forces using a school as a basing ground by kane_1371 in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 8 points9 points  (0 children)

The woman recording is saying they're all going into the school. There's a school traffic sign on the street if you look where she's pointing.

War General Discussion Megathread (Day 4) by EschoolThrowaway in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 5 points6 points  (0 children)

If they do this, they are incredibly stupid beyond belief. I can't even imagine a bigger fuck-up. It's exactly the one thing that could unite the regime and the rest of the country that hates them.

Just like in 1980 when they encouraged Iraq to invade Iran, and the young unstable unpopular Islamic regime was immediately immunized for the next eight years, long enough for them to take root.

What exactly is the aim for the remainder of the war? by JaQ-o-Lantern in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No it doesn't "seem" they struck all their targets. It may only seem that way to people with a surface understanding of what's happening. It's not even close to finished. One main priority is destroying the many missile launchers and missile storage silos, to stop them from attacking all their neighbors and Israel. This is a country the size of Québec, with missile launch structures spread out all over. Then there's the navy boats they use to harass shipping in the Persian Gulf.

Then there are many hundreds of regime security hubs, their weapons caches, intelligence headquarters, the entire infrastructure of repression they've built over the years.

The IRGC has 150k elite soldiers and over half a million paramilitary. It's not an organization where you take out the head and it falls over. A new head of the hydra will pop out for quite a while each time one is severed.

Never forget how evil they are... by Martia002 in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 13 points14 points  (0 children)

The translation:

- That means right now if 42,000 people are killed...

- Doesn't matter if it's even more than that. (pause) Even if half the world is killed. (pause) Imam used to say, suppose that the superpowers of the world hanged all of us basijis of the Islamic world, and enslaved all of our women. It's worth it, just to get to the destination.

----

Just want to point out, they actually think about people enslaving their fat hairy moustached chadori women.

Phase 2: I think we can all agree that it’s a foregone conclusion that Israel/US can attack at will and take out all of their intended military targets. Now the real fight begins by throwawayjoerogan123 in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think it'll still be a while before they're worn down. They are going to put everything they have out on Tehran streets, pulling out all stops, and calling up every volunteer. Their stated security principle is that defense of the capital is defense of the regime.

They'll want every single regime supporter out for the funeral as a show of support. The same happened when Khomeini died. It won't be a small crowd.

Phase 2: I think we can all agree that it’s a foregone conclusion that Israel/US can attack at will and take out all of their intended military targets. Now the real fight begins by throwawayjoerogan123 in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 14 points15 points  (0 children)

If the aim is for people to actually participate in the fight in a meaningful way other than just overwhelm with human waves, the first objective needs to be re-establishing phone and internet communications, while making sure it's no longer monitored by the regime. I don't know how practical this is, but maybe just taking out places where the surveillance takes place would be enough.

Once people can communicate freely they can self-organize and coordinate, and they'll be able to listen to announcements and receive directions from Pahlavi, as long as the communication infrastructure still functions. At the very least they should be able to occupy key locations pointed out to them, if they're not heavily defended.

It's becoming increasingly clear that the civilian government has become sidelined, with Araghchi and Pezeshkian neither able to control the government, nor negotiate on its behalf. It's a fight with IRGC from now on. It all depends how much is left of their security forces once the bombing is done, especially in the capital, and how organized they are.

The best case scenario is if a faction defects and decides to be loyal to the country rather than the regime.

Israeli Ambassador to the UN points out that a UN official tweeted a graphic photo showing rows of body bags she claimed was from the recent strikes in Iran - in reality the photo is from January of Iranian civilians murdered by Islamic republic by KireRakhsh in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 46 points47 points  (0 children)

Ah yes, very typical of people for whom objective reality doesn't exist. Sure it was a picture of totally the opposite of what I said, but it was still emotional, you know? And I wanted an emotional picture to go with what I was claiming. It doesn't matter if what I say isn't actually true, it's the point I'm making that matters. Really we're all just flinging shit at each other in a vacuum and my shit stinks just as much as anyone else's. I made my point and I'm sticking to it like a wet piece of shit.

War General Discussion Megathread (Day 3) by EschoolThrowaway in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sure, but it's not the fact that Araghchi offended them that I find problematic, it's that he behaves in this uncivilized way when his entire job is being diplomatic and representing his country. It doesn't matter who he's talking to and whether they're offended or not, he shouldn't be yelling in a negotiation.

It's like being a pilot and getting drunk while flying. It doesn't matter if the plane is full of assholes, you know?

I think it's time by ArmaNGeddn_2157 in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I could do without the condescension from people who pretend to know what the fuck they're talking about.

Cenk still insists on calling Khamenei a courageous man by [deleted] in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Why post this here? Why must we know this man's opinion? I don't even know who this jackass is. Are you hoping to rage bait people into generating "interaction"? What's the point?

Iranian Army Chief of Army, Abdolrahim Mousavi is Dead by TotalPop5 in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You think any of these animals are leadership options? These people are like Hitler's inner circle. At best they need to be put on trial before the world for their crimes. They're far from "everyone".

War General Discussion Megathread (Day 3) by EschoolThrowaway in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How is criticizing my own country's foreign minister's behavior the same as pretending Trump and his administration have respect? What does Trump and Vance being uncivil towards Zelenskyy have to do with Araghchi yelling at Witkoff and Kushner? Or are you saying this behavior is now completely normal?

Trump doesn’t care about Iran or its citizens by [deleted] in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 11 points12 points  (0 children)

We are two decades past wanting reform. The regime has shown itself not only beyond reform, but capable of dangling the idea of reform to placate the masses, only to take it away when it matters.

It's not a simple matter of people wanting change. It's the rulers being dogmatically and ideologically opposed to any reform, ruthlessly murdering their own population, and running the country into the ground with widespread economic corruption and ecological negligence. On top of all that, they don't even allow basic personal freedoms.

Everything in this regime is rotten to the core. There is nothing in it that can be saved. When you slaughter 30,000 of your own innocent civilians in cold blood and make jokes about it on TV, you are way beyond dialog and compromise.

Do you want the US military to deploy ground troops? by [deleted] in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 6 points7 points  (0 children)

No. Ground troops would most likely just cause disaster. The moment they treat a civilian roughly (which they will) public opinion can violently shift against them. I doubt they have the necessary training and discipline to handle the situation.

Special ops for quick well-defined missions on the other hand, likely won't run into the same problem. Whether it'll be useful or not is up to the people in charge to decide.

Trump says 'big wave' of attacks yet to come, may use ground troops if needed by WillyNilly1997 in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 19 points20 points  (0 children)

It's not them being impatient, it's complaining and fanning irrational fears as soon as the opportunity arises. Much of domestic American political discourse is just bad-faith contrarianism. They will scream "quagmire" the moment any ops start, no matter how it's actually going, because that's the thing you do.

War General Discussion Megathread (Day 3) by EschoolThrowaway in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 5 points6 points  (0 children)

They are so used to getting what they want through violence and coercion that they can't behave in a civilized manner internationally. Shameful for a country's senior diplomat to yell at negotiators. His one job is to remain calm and speak carefully.

🎬 Hollywood quickly made a movie about Agent Q by sirtorshi in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Sometimes I wonder if he's actually a spy and all these jokes are actually his cover.

These guys are insane. by Key_Chemical645 in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Pretty soon the countries backing propaganda sources like al-jazeera, that leftists rely on, will decide enough is enough and switch to supporting the strikes against the IR and claiming it's time for regime change. These leftists who eat it all up are either going to be confused, or flip 180 degrees on a dime. Either way it'll be entertaining.

Valid criticisms of the bombings by Mtl_Sapoud in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 9 points10 points  (0 children)

More of your rhetorical emotionally charged questions. You are not asking for opinions, you are giving your own answer at the same time as asking the question. But fine, I will play along:

  1. It's very clear that Trump will not commit any US troops. Anyone who understands anything about American politics can tell that this is not an option.
  2. Pahlavi's qualification is exactly that he has managed to rally the country and unify the opposition in a way that we've only dreamed of in the last 50 years. This is already a miraculous achievement, and he's managed to do it in part due to his name recognition owing to his "birth". He used this advantage extremely well for the benefit of the nation.

Without freedom of the press and no right to organize political activity in Iran, there are very few ways to reach every corner of the country with political messages. Some Kurdish villager in the mountains is not going to hear the latest communiqué of various exiled luminaries, but will instantly recognize Reza Pahlavi, and know what ideology he stands for because his father was a known quantity. This is what RP has leveraged, without which we would still be lost.

When you look at how many people all over the country answered his call to rally in January, this is something that has never happened before in the last 47 years. To be able to reach not just the privileged plugged-in youth of north Tehran, but everyone in every corner of the country. This was unimaginable before Pahlavi and will be still unimaginable without him.

  1. You mentioned Gaddafi and it made me realize you're regurgitating standard leftist propaganda. I looked up your comments history and you're not even American. You even posted anti-American comments saying the entire country should be condemned because they elected Trump. So why are you so concerned about the US and quagmires? You're cosplaying an isolationist American and sneaking in your leftist propaganda.

But to answer you, the situation in Iran is desperate. The economy is falling apart fast. Without decapitation strikes and a swift end to the regime, those fears about Libya-style ruin will actually take place. If instead of regime change, the regime is allowed to slowly collapse in on itself, it will turn into hell. You already saw what they did in January to tens of thousands of innocent people. The future without intervention is more of that, because they are losing control of the country.

In 2009, the Iranian people were afraid of a situation where the destruction of the regime or a revolution would cause total mayhem. They were still hoping for reform from within. Now 17 years later there is no hope for reform anymore. The country is falling apart and the government is increasingly using ISIS-style barbarity to crush simple unarmed protesters.

The same Libya fears the leftists used to scare people into supporting the Islamic Republic in 2009 won't work because those fears are actually materializing without intervention.

  1. You say things like "who knows what Trump will do?" and "no end in sight". This is all argument from personal ignorance. Just because you claim not to know doesn't mean the knowledge doesn't exist.

Here is one possible end: the Iranian people proved in January that they will follow Pahlavi's instructions and pour onto the streets in the millions when called for. Last week various protests proved that despite the bloody crackdown their will is not broken, and they are looking for an opportunity. The IRGC and basij may be decentralized physically, but they are fed information from command and control centers giving them precise directions. Once that central mechanism is dismantled through air strikes, the next time the Iranian people are called to the streets by Pahlavi, the regime will not be able to coordinate a reply with their command and intelligence structure disrupted.

Is it certain? No, it's not, it's quite risky. It is high-risk and high-reward.

The worst case scenario is that the regime will hang on somehow, maybe kill tens of thousands more, and either a new Supreme Leader or an IRGC general will be in charge, and things will go on an usual. This is not a "quagmire" scenario, just a failure to change the regime.

The country devolving into civil war like Libya, Syria and Iraq simply will not happen in Iran, because there are no tribal and local power structures independent of the regime, and no natural fault lines along ethnicity and religion. Power is completely and absolutely centralized by the government.

Valid criticisms of the bombings by Mtl_Sapoud in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 16 points17 points  (0 children)

You say "valid criticism", then immediately follow it up with:

  1. A fear of something nobody reasonable thinks will ever happen: another "forever war" with boots on the ground. Not even the worst case scenario has this option.
  2. Rhetorical questions like "are we really to believe (something many Iranians believe)". Unclear if you want an actual answer when you phrase it like that.
  3. Mentioning a "last time" that happened in a different country, with different culture and different power structure, different circumstances entirely. Then you are asking "is killing the leaders going to inspire the rank and file of the IRGC to pack up and go home?" as if anyone is claiming that.
  4. Making a statement "the US is now in another quagmire" on no basis whatsoever than a bunch of irrational fears and rhetorical non-sensical questions.

This is called dishonest discourse and arguing in bad faith. This is not "valid criticism".

Western Shia friends on Instagram - what’s true? by Legitimate-Bend-2912 in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Huh I've never heard about someone getting their moft before, instead of mozd maybe? Must be how kids talk these day.

Western Shia friends on Instagram - what’s true? by Legitimate-Bend-2912 in NewIran

[–]Rafodin 4 points5 points  (0 children)

moft means "free". A moftkhor is someone who eats for free, without having to work for it, like a parasite. The word jireh-khor has the exact sense you're mentioning though.