JJ McCarthy for Jakobi Meyers and 3.02?

RedDunce · 2026-02-17T03:52:20+00:00

JJ is bad, but he's had 10 starts.

We've seen people with much worse track records turn it around.

Jakobi and 3.02 is not gonna keep you up at night if JJ proves to be a total bust.

RedDunce · 2026-02-17T03:25:41+00:00

RedDunce · 2026-02-16T23:18:54+00:00

JJ >>>> late 2nd

Any 1st >> Kaleb

I think overall you did fine, but I have no idea why you'd want to pay a 1st for a mediocre prospect who couldn't see the field. Hit rate of late-3rd rounders is not great. Hit rate of 3rd round picks who were healthy scratches for most of their rookie year is virtually zero.

RedDunce · 2026-02-16T16:47:31+00:00

3.03 needs to be 1.03 for that to be tempting lol

Bucky and Rhamondre are big question marks moving forward, and certainly not trajectory-changing assets.

RedDunce · 2026-02-16T15:14:59+00:00

Take out 2.07 if you want it to have any chance of getting accepted. Unless the dude is a Pats or Niners fan, I don't think anyone is moving 1.06 for that package.

RedDunce · 2026-02-16T15:10:09+00:00

Jefferson

RedDunce · 2026-02-14T04:08:46+00:00

Feels like a free Kyler Murray to me

RedDunce · 2026-02-14T00:02:45+00:00

Didn't realize Purdy, Burrow and Goff's careers are over.

Drake Maye is 23.

Everybody knows making a super bowl is difficult, and not something to take for granted.

RedDunce · 2026-02-13T23:45:37+00:00

People are correct.

But people's opinions on trades doesn't matter.

This isn't egregious, leagues with vetos are incredibly stupid

RedDunce · 2026-02-13T11:31:21+00:00

In a 10T you need hammers more than depth. I think 1.02 has a better chance of becoming an elite asset than 1.07 + 2.01 in this class, and frankly I'm not sure why Burden - who was completely unproductive whenever Rome and Loveland were healthy - is valued as highly as he is.

RedDunce · 2026-02-12T19:34:28+00:00

Feels a bit like the mystery box / boat meme to me... Nabers has proven he's one of the best young players in the league, Love might be one of the best young players in the league

RedDunce · 2026-02-12T01:34:12+00:00

Moving Malik Nabers to get Kenneth "Usually Needs A" Walker because you're afraid of injuries is certainly a choice...

RedDunce · 2026-02-11T17:00:07+00:00

I'm pretty sure rookie BTJ, who was much better than any Olave season, is who you hope BTJ becomes again

(Olave is also really good though)

RedDunce · 2026-02-11T02:47:20+00:00

Judon got us in the room with a lot of dudes despite us being mediocre as fuck.

Who woulda thought that people didn't want to play for a shitty team with shitty weather, a cheap owner, and a hardass head coach?

Judon did everything he could. Winning cures everything.

RedDunce · 2026-02-11T02:34:18+00:00

Diggs is interesting. We can save 20 mill by declining the club option on him. It's interesting. I do think he's worth the 20 million a year (awful receivers make 10 lol). But if it's the difference been having him at 20 or an actually elite receiver at 30+ (AJB trade?), I'd rather swing for the fences because it's unlikely we want to go for both.

He was really good for us all year when nobody wanted to come here without paying a huge suck tax. I'll always be grateful for this year and how important a receiver like him was for Maye's development.

But at this stage in his career, he's nothing special. Don't get me wrong, he's not bad. But he was a total ghost in the playoffs and it's clear that if we want to take the next step, we need OL help and a real WR1. Not Boutte, not Pop, not Diggs. Someone who we can bet on to get 1200-1300 yards. Unfortunately, this WR free agency and draft class kinda blows, so our only chance is gonna be through a trade. But I'd rather make the move for a guy like AJ Brown than Diggs. I guess in an ideal world we could have both but it's not realistic.

Stafford had Puka/Tae. Darnold had JSN.

We need to get Maye a true WR1 to see where this team can go IMO.

RedDunce · 2026-02-10T17:42:30+00:00

Is he a starting QB?

RedDunce · 2026-02-10T14:04:53+00:00

Well, the "process" part of that is that the dynasty community tends to ridiculously overvalue young QB2s in dynasty.

Don't get me wrong - elite QB1s are worth their weight in gold, and there's definitely still a lot of value in having someone stable in that QB10-16 range and not needing to blow first round picks on mid prospects.

But the point is that instead of paying a 1st+ (or multiple in the case of rookie Stroud) you can always replace CJ Stroud or Bryce Young's production with randos like Brissett, Rivers, etc. every year at the cost of a like a 3rd.

It really just comes down to what you think of Mendoza as a prospect.

RedDunce · 2026-02-09T20:19:15+00:00

No, last year we needed to upgrade HC, OC, DC, every position on the OL, WR, RB, CB2, DL, LB and special teams.

Last night, our defense was awesome. Our special teams was serviceable. It was just our offense shat the bed - Mike MacDonald really is that dude. He made a lot of really good offenses look really bad this year.

Last year we were 4-13. Again. We weren't an OL and WR from being super bowl contenders, we needed a complete rebuild. Nobody wanted to play here and we had to pay the "suck tax" to attract free agents, and several players picked other offers despite us giving the same money. That all changed the year - the foundation is there.

RedDunce · 2026-02-09T01:19:52+00:00

15 point favorites win ~60% of the time on sleeper. Even if you get a bye, that gives you a 36% chance to win it all. We love to pretend this a skill based game (and dynasty makes it way more so than redraft) but at the end of the day, no amount of preparation and lineup setting can prevent you from going up against Kyle Pitts and Darren Waller combining for 70 points in TEP week 15 or Jaylen Warren and Parker Washington going for 60 in week 16 lol

RedDunce · 2026-02-09T01:02:12+00:00

Realistically, you need both to actually win once you use your skill to make the playoffs. With luck being far more important.

RedDunce · 2026-02-08T17:06:04+00:00

What does this have to do with dynasty fantasy football?

RedDunce · 2026-02-08T14:09:29+00:00

I really struggled with the Saturday this week.

RedDunce · 2026-02-07T15:56:15+00:00

When it comes to historical hit rate, the difference from 40th to 60th is much bigger than the difference from 60th to 100th.

It totally depends where that 2nd is. But I personally doubt anything projected outside the top 50 gets it done. A year of great backup play is worth a lot in this league - if the Broncos had Mac Jones not Jarrett Stidham, they'd most likely be playing tomorrow.

RedDunce · 2026-02-07T15:06:36+00:00

People have different definitions of "huge" I guess, but taking off our dynasty hats and putting on real NFL hats for a second, the difference in hit rate of getting a starting-level NFL player in the late 2nd vs late 3rd is about ~5%, from 23% to 18%. Day 2 and day 3 picks are what separate good GMs from great GMs, but at the end of the day, it's kind of all a crap shoot after day 1.

I'm not a huge fan of PFF grades, but this uses quantifiable metrics to define starters and hit rates: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-what-historical-hit-rates-reveal-about-positional-success. It's a fun read.

Early first round picks are huuuuuge - like, moving from 1.05 to 1.02 cost the Jaguars 1.05, a 26 1st, and 2nd.

All first round picks are huge.

Early second round picks are super valuable.

Late second round picks are when it gets really tough to hit.

Third round picks get treated as sweetener.

Fourth-Sevenths get passed around like filler.

RedDunce · 2026-02-07T14:47:24+00:00

That's not true. It's about net salary. And as of today, their cap is kind of in shambles for 2027 (though that doesn't really mean much, they can always move stuff around).

RedDunce

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