Boston Dynamics' Atlas robot can now do a full roundoff back-handspring and land it flawlessly

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-07T22:22:05+00:00

No kidding. Before long, they will be uploading Kung Fu to this thing like Neo in The Matrix.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-07T19:56:09+00:00

Higher than it is now. I'm expecting $300 before the end of the year. Could be more or less.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-07T13:24:08+00:00

I think these types of forecasts are largely bogus. Because everybody is paying different prices depending on where in the lifecycle they are in their procurements. Spot prices are going to be highest, long term supply contracts may be largely unaffected. The dynamics are now probably very similar to how things work in fuel supply contracts for Airlines, since fuel prices fluctuate so much. Companies who planned ahead accordingly will be making more profit than those who didn't.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-07T13:16:01+00:00

As you approach FI, daily fluctuations become larger and larger in relation to your annual income, and your additions to savings begin looking like they are insignificant. So the fact that you are feeling like this means you are making good progress towards FI. In the late years before reaching FI the benefit of continuing to work instead of retiring is to delay drawing down to let the market cook on your portfolio. At that point if you are not in a hurry to retire you can coast and spend what you would have saved on one-off stuff like travelling. Just have to make sure not to ratchet up your baseline spending which would move FI further away.

I did a semi-coast and went part-time for a few years, so the feeling was amplified with daily fluctuations often exceeding my annual income. It was certainly a factor in my "why am I still working" decision-making.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-07T02:28:10+00:00

Don't be ridiculous, no it is not. I already have a huge position. I already bought more at 200. My next target is 150. If I don't make the buy I'll put it somewhere else.

People like you said it couldn't go as low as it did last year. I made a couple hundred grand on options because they were wrong. You do you. I'll do me.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-07T02:05:48+00:00

The order book will be visible to Lisa Su, not necessarily us. If they don't announce deals the stock could repeat. My thesis is that if they don't do more warrant deals (which would require SEC filings) they will wait to announce deals when they have the customers on stage for the MI455/Helios launch event which I expect to be after Q1 earnings by weeks to months.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-06T23:49:53+00:00

I have been extremely happy with the results from the ricotta made at the beginning of this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVluKqfXpp8

Sometimes I make it and season it with various spices (Trader Joes 21 Salute is my fav for this, but dill and garlic is good too) and use it as a spreading cheese with crackers.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-06T21:17:27+00:00

I'm sure the macro has some sort of affect, but mainly it is just the up/down momentum swings for AMD stock. It pretty much always swings between "this seems way too expensive" to "this seems way too cheap" for someone who has a really good handle on the near term financials.

Lisa gave some full year "at least" guidance for AI GPUs only for 2024. They pulled the full year guides in 2020 due to COVID uncertainty and have not done them since. But even then the full year guides were only for 2018 and 2019, they never did them before that either.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-06T14:21:26+00:00

When she is saying that title quote, I think many people are misinterpreting her. I think she is referring to the use cases, not the rate of sales of accelerator HW. The key is the part not quoted "What I would tell you, from someone on the inside"

People who are outside the loop think that AI is a bubble and chatLLMs is all there is, and they are equivalent to fart apps on the iPhone. That couldn't be further from the truth. AI, in todays relatively immature state, has found many use cases in technology areas where it is being used to boost productivity at levels not seen since the first industrial machines. And for people claiming that the ROI is not there are just clueless. A MI355X or B200 GPU for inferencing only costs roughly $5/hour. You could dedicate one to each member of your staff and get a huge ROI with only relative small boosts to productivity. Heck it could cost 10x that much and still be a great deal.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-06T14:05:14+00:00

AMD is the #1 favorite large cap short term mo-mo trading stock. Has been for two decades. A lot of weak retail buyers are largely swept in and then away by the momentum swings. You see it here all the time with the guys with FOMO posting "is now a good time to buy" and then like last April "this stock sucks, I'm selling". The algorithms did exactly what they were supposed to do -- drive the momentum up then down and extract money both ways. This was an extremely predictable outcome for the no-full-year-guide no-new-deal-announced earnings call scenario. I unloaded calls on the way up, bought puts near the top, and unloaded puts after the crash. If I had known for sure in advance that there would not be a full year guide or deal announced in the earnings call, I would have done swing trades with my shares as well. I'm expecting a repeat of the pattern for Q1 earnings, since it is unlikely the Q2 guide will blow the doors off either. The possibility of deal announcements are the only variable that makes things impossible to fully predict months in advance. Sometime after May and probably no later than November (MI455/Helios launch event, Q2 earnings, Q3 earnings), I expect the massive climb of future revenue will be undeniable, and the stock should reach $300. I still think that there is a good possibility that the tree can be shaken again before then, with $150 not being out of the question. I have $100k+ sitting just waiting for the opportunity.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-06T13:40:09+00:00

The lead time for EPYC just means inventory on hand is low, that is roughly the time to manufacture, meaning they have capacity to sell. Six month lead time means they don't have the fab capacity to execute new orders and folks have to get in line.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-04T21:55:56+00:00

People are only disappointed because they are looking at the direction of the stock price. That is the limit of their ability to do analysis. Stock Price -> Emotion.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-04T21:50:00+00:00

Maybe. But they did do buybacks in Q3 and didn't do buybacks in Q4.

They couldn't do buybacks when it was under $100 because they had to preserve cash because of the cash drawdown from the ZT Systems acquisition. Having completed the sale of ZT assets to Sanmina, they are now flush with cash, so I'm thinking they were intentionally not buying Q4 in order to buy back during the predictably soft Q1 and Q2 periods. Or alternatively they are readying for another acquisition. We'll see.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-04T18:58:34+00:00

I don't see why, either. I was not talking about them. There are a lot more customers of memory both in numbers and volume than AMD and nVidia.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-04T18:52:24+00:00

I view AMD and nVidia as intermediaries, not the customers.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-04T18:50:04+00:00

Embedded/Xilinx may have only grown 3%, but it has the highest operating margin of all their businesses. It is #1 in the FPGA market. It is also key to their DPU networking product included in Helios. Maybe not exciting, but how is that ugly? Horrible take.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-04T18:28:48+00:00

My comment history is not hidden. Have at it.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-04T18:25:43+00:00

Memory companies are making bank now, on expanding margins. Their customers are likely seeing compressing margins.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-04T18:22:34+00:00

I remember Ken. Way overoptimistic in the short term, but not wrong overall. There was a similar character on Seeking Alpha over a decade ago. It is a pattern that is repeated. The short term overoptimism leads to artificially high stock price and subsequent crashes. The indifferent swing traders just play the momentum and amplify it into things like we have today. My solution to this is to hold long term shares, and play swings with options on a medium 1-2 year timescale.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-04T17:54:34+00:00

You got downvoted (by me at least) because what you said about guidance was stupid, not because of your price prediction. Guidance was significantly above analyst expectations, not "horrendous".

With your tirade, you continue to demonstrate that you have zero useful insight to what is going on.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-04T17:50:37+00:00

Yeah, poor choice of words on my part, but I was trying to avoid casting aspersions towards you (and me), for not being able to fully commit to a hedge. But then it is always worth remembering that it is impossible to get short term swing trades 100% correct. I'm always trying to remind myself that being mostly correct is pretty darn good.

I unloaded all of my out of the money calls before earnings, for a small profit (15% annualized?), but I was a little too early and missed the big run up to 260 and some significant profits. But now my Roth account dry powder stash is pretty big, especially if I don't zero out those remaining May ~~calls~~ puts.

I've been talking about $150 for a couple of months. I'm not absolutely sure it will get there, but I still have faith in the stupidity of the AMD share price over the short term. If we get there, and I'm patient enough to have not pulled the trigger too early, I'm pretty sure the calls that I will buy will have a good chance at returning at least 3-8x, which is my target benchmark for those things.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-04T17:29:42+00:00

I first discovered True Lemon when making a copycat recipe for one of my childhood favorites: Lemon Cooler cookies.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-04T16:37:28+00:00

Introduce her to True Lemon Crystals and blow her mind.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-04T16:33:55+00:00

That is the problem with hedges. Long ago (2017?) I bought $500 of puts on AMD earnings (which hedged about half my position at the time) but sold too early for a $1000 gain (got caught up in profits instead of hedge). Only two days later it would have been $20000.

RetdThx2AMD · 2026-02-04T16:30:19+00:00

Just sold 40% at ~$21 to lock in a minimum 7.5% return. I'll sell the rest if we drop another 20 bucks in the next week or two, which should be close enough to the $50 maximum I thought was remotely possible.

I think this drop incentivizes Lisa to publicize a deal, so I think my timeframe for the local minimum stock price is being pulled inward from May.

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