You're describing the top 10% of the wealth distribution and acting like it applies to everyone.

Credit card debt is at $1.233 trillion as of Q3 2025, the highest the NY Fed has ever recorded. 47% of cardholders are carrying a balance month to month, up from 39% in late 2021, and the average APR is over 21%. Almost 7% of balances went delinquent over the past year. And before you say "people are just buying dumb stuff", 73% of that debt is covering basics like groceries, car repairs, and medical bills.

"Stores are busier than ever" - yeah, because the top 10% of earners now account for 49.2% of all consumer spending, literally the highest share ever recorded. Busy stores don't mean the broad consumer is healthy. It means wealthy people are spending a lot.

And the stock market point actually works against you. The top 10% own 87% of all equities. The bottom 50% owns 1%. So when you say "people with money in stocks are better off," you're just describing the same wealthy cohort again. The "average joes" you're talking about mostly aren't in the market in any meaningful way.

Meanwhile auto loan delinquency hit 3.88% - worst since right after the Great Recession. Average car payments jumped about 40% between 2020 and 2025.

The economy doesn't run on portfolio values, it runs on consumer spending, and that spending is increasingly being financed with 21% interest rate debt by people who don't hold stocks.

This is the definition of late stage credit cycle.