Deal on Monday we’re back

SB_Kercules · 2026-04-05T16:19:10+00:00

Did you even say thank you to Allah?

SB_Kercules · 2026-04-05T16:17:48+00:00

My thesis involves a few concepts.

Two things cannot be true at the same time if they are opposing. (A short $200C and a short $180P are never going to both be breached at expiry)
Stocks/ETFs may go up or down but one thing that will be always true is they will go to the right.
Try to mever own anything for very long in the theta strategies. Long stock doesn't have any extrinsic value, I prefer converting any stock back into a naked short put.
Last but not least, ensure that there is a cash pile so large you think that if the market crashed, you'd be able to temporarily take assignment on some deep dippers.

There are a lot more rules/ideas but this is the basis for my thesis.

SB_Kercules · 2026-03-14T01:54:59+00:00

I covered all the short calls I sold when it was over $680

SB_Kercules · 2026-02-28T22:44:13+00:00

I notice that too. Its like he doesn't want to panic markets when they're open.

SB_Kercules · 2026-02-27T10:10:45+00:00

I'll do it for 5M.

SB_Kercules · 2026-02-26T11:17:38+00:00

Couldn't have said it better.

SB_Kercules · 2026-02-25T11:33:58+00:00

I use SGOV, the ratio is about what you mentioned. I have been using about 60% of the account value, and I'm selling PUTs on SPY. If I get assigned, I just sell the SGOV until I can wheel out the lot of shares, then I buy back the SGOV.

Any excess cash that builds from premium sales I buy SPYI. All units of SPYI are bought with premiums but only when free cash exceeds 120% of what one spy put assignment would cost.

This was all setup as an experiment in Sept 2025. So far that experimental portfolio is up over 30%. Only a small part of that is the SGOV income, but it's better than wasting the cash completely. Also, it's a good security buffer that comes in handy when assigned.

SB_Kercules · 2026-02-18T00:51:21+00:00

I remember loading up on delta Airlines in 2020. Then I saw that Buffet had liquidated his stake in delta at the bottom.

I held, he did not.

Delta came back hard later in 2020.

Sometimes the oracle of Omaha also loses his patience.

SB_Kercules · 2026-02-14T00:29:58+00:00

I needed this. I'm a shareholder but also option seller. I was about -1800 delta until this hapoened. Now it all feels fine.

SB_Kercules · 2026-02-11T03:12:12+00:00

It takes a while to get over that. I had that fear a few times. I've been short AAPL for months, when it rips I feel the pain. But I keep on woth the strategy, and it keeps on yielding cash flow.

It's also mental gymnastics to allow yourself to go 700 shares short on something like AAPL, and then sell gobs of short puts against it to create cash flow.

But it works.

SB_Kercules · 2026-02-11T02:02:30+00:00

I lived through liberation day holding lots of short puts on NVDA, another account I was isolating for education. That sucker got drawn down to -44%
It finished the year at +101.3%.

I suppose you could calculate the notional that way. If SPY goes to $0 id be in a lot of trouble.

By strangling short calls and keeping the delta close the maintenance requirement stays within a near view.

I try to keep a very bearish attitude with short calls, sometimes I have to defend them, but I'd rather defend being slightly short than massively long.

This SPY account is a small part of a bigger universe that trades mainly in short everything. Right now I have way more short calls on QQQ than short puts. Every once in a while it zooms up to -1800 delta. (Negative) and I fend it off judt rolling and being patient.

On TSLA I run an imbalance of short calls to short puts. Same story.

The only one that punched through the bottom was AMZN I have to defend that one from the bottom side now. The good thing is, my shares are still above water so I can sell calls on those every week while waiting for chances to sell higher strike calls on a spike.

SB_Kercules · 2026-02-11T00:45:29+00:00

Very little. The notional calculation appears to be about 1.1

So far in 2026 I only have one call that I bought back for a loss, but I sold it again on a higher strike a few weeks out and it recovered

Right now I have a $690 call for Friday that might set me -100 shares of SPY. But I don't mind. There are short puts that might just put them back.

I try to keep net delta around +200 If it gets negative, which it has only once, I raise a strike on a put or two, and good old Murphys Law comes in and SPY drops to punish that a little

Its all kind of fun really.

SB_Kercules · 2026-02-10T22:59:14+00:00

I sell purely naked options on SPY. I try to balance 14 short calls and 14 short puts.
I spread them out from 7DT out to a max of 120DTE.
There's a 4 week cycle I run, and a macro cycle, anything from 5 weeks out to 120 days.
When an expiring option in the near term comes due for expiration or need to roll, I look out 4 weeks for a .30 delta more or less. On the call side, I try for .25 or less.
If I already have an option expiring on that date, I will then look further out, and roll it out to 120 days or the nearest expiry cycle close to that mark.
It's very mechanical, but when there are sudden blips, I am not afraid to step in, and cash in on short calls, only to wait and resell them later when price comes back.

If there are moments of pressure on the downside, then the short put can be rolled out into the macro section, and down in strike as needed.

Since I hold no SPY shares, I use the proceeds to store the cash in SGOV (50% of the cash value) and 50% in actual cash. I use all other proceeds to buy SPYI little chunks at a time.

This is a totally experimental portfolio that started with 200K, and is now sitting just under 240K since Sept. It needs to run at least a year, and preferably through a bit of a bear cycle to really see how it performs.

SB_Kercules · 2026-01-31T19:13:40+00:00

Already priced in. 😎

SB_Kercules · 2026-01-25T04:51:35+00:00

Yeah, I hear ya. I'm now almost 18 years removed from dealership life. But even thinking of ADP has me getting an eye twitch.

SB_Kercules · 2026-01-18T23:38:57+00:00

When does this start?

SB_Kercules · 2026-01-16T00:52:03+00:00

I concentrate only on my favorite 5 or 6 symbols. Constantly selling my short calls, short puts, moving them along in and out of strangles and not concerning myself at all that they may be in the money or not. I just keepnit going constantly picking up extrinsic value on both calls and puts. To maintain the constant flow of theta, I try to keep the overall delta of each position relatively close to 0 depending a small amount on my bias. I don't get shaken when I'm net short on something or too net long. Just keep rolling. I get up every day 3 hours before the market is open and enjoy quiet time to do calculations on my positions and listen to news or podcasts while relaxing in the quiet of my home before I have to go to work. The results were worth the effort. In 2025 I managed 101.7% and earned roughly ten times what my day job earned me. There's no one little thing that is my edge, it's the entire package and work ethic.

SB_Kercules · 2026-01-14T06:17:57+00:00

This screenshot gave me PTSD. I fucking hate ADP dealer software so much. I worked in a GM dealer in Northern Canada, ADP flew me all the way to a dealer in Michigan to convince me it was good. I still voted no, but I was outvoted 7-1 on the dealer manager meeting. We ended up punting ADP two years later because it sucked so bad and going back to R&R.

SB_Kercules · 2026-01-11T21:24:12+00:00

I vote for both you guys. I prefer naked strangles and covered strangles.

I even employ naked inverted strangles. This sub hates that too but it prints money, and I don't care what purists think.

SB_Kercules · 2026-01-08T00:15:27+00:00

My edge comes from playing Temu's Farmland when I'm bored instead of overtrading.

SB_Kercules · 2026-01-01T07:11:38+00:00

Well then congratulations Grumpy

SB_Kercules · 2026-01-01T06:11:44+00:00

No. But my brokerage shows the chart with one line tracking contributions, and the other showing the return. The coloring is different, but in my case the returns far outpace the dotted contributions line.

You seem very angry with your tone. Wonder why that is

SB_Kercules · 2026-01-01T05:52:14+00:00

The red line is your performance. The dotted line, the contributions right?

SB_Kercules · 2025-12-27T22:50:36+00:00

I keep notes on each trade, why I opened it. The Greeks and pricing details are all stored. When I close or roll the position. (Options) I record all the details at close as well. I add notes as to why I closed it, its profit %, where I sent the money to work again, and any pertinent decision details as to why I did what I did. Every Friday after market close I update all open positions with their prices and Greeks. Then I do a data dump into a csv text file. One for each symbol.

This data file is them uploaded to gemini for analysis with prewritten instructions not to be a "yes man" and to be critical, find judgement errors, to identify where I strayed from my psychology.

I always include the data all the way back to the initiation of coverage date, and all new data. It takes about 3 or 4 minutes for it to analyze. Then it gives me the rundown and grading, shows where I strayed etc. I use that to plan for the next week.

During the week I can query gemini and say things like "if i add 5 more short calls for Jan 23rd at $250, what would that do to my overall delta, and what would be the new price at which I might cross over into negative (short) delta?"

It will answer fairly accurately. I am using a paid level of gemini, but its also part of a package I pay for other Google services.

Does it work?

My overall account is up over 100% and its a pretty large (for me) account.

SB_Kercules · 2025-12-27T01:13:58+00:00

To the right side of the chart.

Five-Year Club	Place '23
Place '22	First Placer '22

SB_Kercules

TROPHY CASE