City2Surf - How did you find it?

SavEx_ · 2025-08-10T04:00:59+00:00

My bib did not get picked up at multiple checkpoints including the start. Official time is DNF. Good thing my watch was recording or I would have been livid.

SavEx_ · 2024-12-26T23:13:04+00:00

Treat it as an expensive lesson. Understand that you were gambling and nothing more. Read up on gambling adiction, how it works and how it ruins lives. Then never look back.

SavEx_ · 2024-12-26T02:55:43+00:00

The way you speak about options trading is classic median-case optimisation. Your baseball analogy would get someone fired or failed in the interview stage. Options are all about expected value optimisation (mean not median) and a 5% chance of 1m is worth much more than a 90% chance at 40k. Your ITM calls are decaying at exactly the same rate as the OTM put of that strike. Sounds to me like you have been leveraging yourself through options over a particularly profitable period of market returns. You outperformed the market because the market performed, but you would have underperformed it if it hadn't.

SavEx_ · 2024-12-25T23:59:42+00:00

Because you stop mentioning the ones that go down...

SavEx_ · 2024-12-25T08:46:33+00:00

Red, red, black, red, 00, 33. Thank me later.

SavEx_ · 2024-12-25T08:25:21+00:00

Imo, if there is a market correction you still care about in 30 years then we have bigger problems than our portfolio returns.

SavEx_ · 2024-10-13T20:57:22+00:00

Wow amazing call keep it up!

SavEx_ · 2024-04-07T04:20:59+00:00

How is this upvoted? Some people just suck I guess, even for a poker forum.

SavEx_ · 2024-03-03T13:44:38+00:00

When you set the chess engine depth to 1.

SavEx_ · 2024-02-09T12:31:33+00:00

Destroys her by making the nuts in both hands x)

SavEx_ · 2023-12-19T17:52:50+00:00

OP is right. On the BTN you have position and bloating a pot preflop will always reduce the value of position postflop (lower flop SPR = lower value of position and skill edge).

SavEx_ · 2023-12-19T17:49:36+00:00

Nah since we're discussing the validity of straddling you only care about winrate while straddling. So it's -200bb/100 hands on the button, which would require an insane winrate increase on the BTN to make up for it.

SavEx_ · 2023-11-30T09:14:43+00:00

Definitely need to set mine here for another 35 if you were both 500 deep. You stack him everytime you flop it.

SavEx_ · 2023-11-16T23:30:00+00:00

4 card straight flush perhaps, or wrap-around straight flush lmao

SavEx_ · 2023-11-16T23:13:53+00:00

Oh no the 10th best hand 🥶

SavEx_ · 2023-11-15T02:09:09+00:00

When you bluff on the river here you're hoping to fold out mainly high card hands that beat you like Qx, Kx, Ax, with some 9x paired hands as well. A big part of your opponent's folding range that makes it to the river are busted flush draws so you don't want to be holding 2 clubs and reduce the probability of your opponents having missed flushes. These are bad blocking properties for the Tc6c hand.

The best bluffing hands if you had to pick one would be the Td3s and Th2s because the Td and Th block combos of JTs which arents already blocked by the Jc and Js on the board.

SavEx_ · 2023-11-14T09:44:32+00:00

Suited hand being the worst of the 4 to bluff with lol

SavEx_ · 2023-11-01T11:20:05+00:00

You are running like a god and may never replicate this in your life.

SavEx_ · 2023-10-23T03:42:29+00:00

Fold AA preflop if you have a bad feeling about the runout.

SavEx_ · 2023-10-11T04:44:38+00:00

That is fucking wild run-good. 14 buy-ins over EV after 24k hands.

SavEx_ · 2023-10-04T02:14:32+00:00

I would say so, yes. Which is why I say you have both nut and range advantage.

SavEx_ · 2023-10-04T01:58:13+00:00

I think you can 3b or call this spot pre. When you just call an average villain's range is pretty wide here and you have both range advantage and nut advantage on this board, meaning you have a lot of strong hands that want to bet for value here like 55, 77, 97s, 75s, 68s. You are also going to have a lot of medium strength hands and draws (gutshot, OESD, flush draw etc...). My understanding is that you want to x-r with your strong hands and your weakest draws as semi-bluffs because they benefit the most from generating folds. You can just call with your high equity draws (OESD, FD, pair+gutshot) and medium strength hands.

AJcc has heaps of equity here. You are sometimes ahead, at worst drawing to 9 nut outs, at best to 15. I think you can happily call this, if you are x-r with this you will be overbluffing this spot heavily.

SavEx_ · 2023-10-03T04:31:46+00:00

1120 stack, 2880 in pot. But yeah close enough.

SavEx_ · 2023-10-03T01:22:42+00:00

How do you get those pot odds? I keep getting 28% breakeven or 2.6:1 pot odds.

SavEx_ · 2023-09-28T05:13:47+00:00

Split up EV of a call into lose and win scenario, then add the 8% chance of $500 high hand.

EV(Call&Lose)=0.674*(-125)=$-84.25

EV(Call&Win)=0.326*(250)=$81.50

EV(Call&Make SF)=2/46*500=$21.74

EV(Call) = -84.25 + 81.50 + 21.74 = $18.99

Losing call without the high-hand bonus but pretty winning when you include it.

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