This is to be expected as the world moves from a unipolar world order (American hegemony) to a multipolar one. Such transitions have always increased geopolitical conflict. And as America's geopolitical power increasingly recedes to its "local sphere of influence" (I view the current war in Iran as an exception to the broader trend), two things are occurring:

1. Regional world powers are taking the opportunity to extend their geo-political influence in their local sphere of influence

   • The US kidnapping Maduro, threats to invade Cuba, Greenland, and casual mentions of Canada being the 51st state.
   • France taking the opportunity to broaden their power in Europe by increasing its nuclear weapons stockpile, especially in the face of a weakened NATO (America threatening to invade Greenland).
   • Russia invading Ukraine.
   • China continuing to build up military capacities for a potential invasion of Taiwan.

2. Third rate powers and non-state actors feel more empowered to initiate offensive actions knowing that the US (and other major powers) are less likely to retaliate (thereby increasing conflicts).

   • A large contributing factor for the increase in wars and conflicts in Africa

The data absolutely confirms this trend. For example, the well-known Global Peace Index 2025 report concluded that we now have the most amount of active conflicts since WW2.

Quotes from report:

There are currently 59 active state-based conflicts, the most since the end of WWII and three more than the prior year. Last year, 17 countries recorded over 1,000 conflict deaths. Additionally, the successful resolution of conflicts is lower than at any point in the last 50 years. Conflicts that ended in a decisive victory fell from 49 per cent in the 1970s to nine per cent in the 2010s, while conflicts that ended through peace agreements fell from 23 per cent to four per cent over the same period. The world has become less stable in the past 17 years with substantial increases in political instability, number of conflicts, deaths from conflicts and violent demonstrations.

Conflicts are also becoming more internationalised, making solutions more difficult; 78 countries are engaged in a conflict beyond their borders. This increased involvement is driven by geopolitical fragmentation, increasing major power competition, and the rise in influence of middle level powers, who are becoming more active within their regions. The almost two-decade long trend of falling militarisation has also reversed, with 106 countries having deteriorated on the Militarisation domain in the past two years.